THE CONTENDERS
W hen Chris Froome embarked last year on a lighter than usual early season the explanation was that he was hoping to peak a little later. There was the Olympic Games in Rio, where he hoped to win the time trial. Then the Vuelta a España, where he had gone close in the past, but never won.
It seemed that the idea was that Froome would go to the Tour de France slightly undercooked, come to the boil in July then keep his form simmering through August and into September.
So much for the theory. In the event he hit his first target, spectacularly, and fell short of the later two. The lighter racing diet did Froome no harm at all in early July – has he ever ridden better than on stage 8 to Luchon, when he swooped down the Peyresourde for an unexpected win, or four days later, on the flat, crosswind-hit stage to Montpellier when he formed an alliance with Peter Sagan?
The Team Sky Tour-winning method, established with Bradley Wiggins in 2012 and carried on into 2013 with Froome, has been re-shaped. Instead of Paris-Nice or the Ruta del Sol, in the last two years Froome has travelled to Australia for the Herald Sun Tour, a relatively lowly race, delaying his European debut until late March at the Tour of Catalonia.
He was low-key last year, and even lower-key this. In 2016 there was a morale-boosting stage win at the Tour de Romandie. This year, in atrocious weather, there were few indicators in Switzerland that Froome was anywhere near the form he will aim to be in come July. So far this year his best performance was on the fifth stage in Catalonia, where he was second at Lo Port to Alejandro Valverde, coming in 0:13 down with Alberto Contador.
Dave Brailsford, Froome’s boss at Sky, explains the rationale behind the approach. Australia was as much about warm weather training either side of the Herald Sun Tour and it was followed by a big training block in South Africa. In Catalonia, says Brailsford, “he was better than expected, but the weather and a few other things caught up with him in Romandie.”
After Romandie he went home to Monaco and then, while the Giro was on, back to Tenerife for a high-altitude camp. “The profile of the season over the years has changed,” Brailsford says. “The reason he doesn’t do Paris-Nice now is that he’s more confident in his ability to come to form at the right time. He doesn’t need the confirmation of races. He needs to race, to have racing miles, but he doesn’t need the confidence you get from winning.”
It isn’t that Froome is any less hungry, just that he is more selective in picking from the menu. “Going and winning the Tour again is a really important goal, but maybe the need to win a Paris-Nice isn’t so important,” says Brailsford. “Fundamentally the main thing is that Chris, like a lot of older athletes, knows his body better. We used to see the same with some of the older Olympians at British Cycling. They just get to know themselves and their physiology well.”
The confirmation that Froome does seem to need is in the last race before the Tour, the Critérium du Dauphiné. If he wins this again he will go to the Tour as the favourite. Not winning would create some uncertainty.
Otherwise it is difficult to see where the biggest threats lie. At some point the three-time winner’s powers will wane, but it would be ironic if that process began this year, because the impression is that a lot of his would-be rivals targeted the Giro on the basis that it appeared more achievable than beating Froome in the kind of form he was in last year. Thus, Nairo Quintana, Thibaut Pinot and the Giro winner, Tom Dumoulin, will either be missing or potentially fatigued at the Tour.
The con irmation that Froome needs is in the Dauphiné. If he wins again this year, he will go to the Tour as the favourite
Quintana, second at the Tour on two occasions to Froome, found a new bogeyman in Italy in the tall, rangy shape of Dumoulin, who will miss the Tour. Quintana was curiously misfiring at the Giro; but given his win at the Vuelta last year after falling short at the Tour, it is conceivable that he will be better in France. He will also have an extremely strong Movistar team, including this year’s form rider, Alejandro Valverde, who is 11 wins to the good.
It’s interesting that the first name mentioned by Brailsford, when asked to identify the other favourites, is Richie Porte, his former rider. He also names Romain Bardet, Simon Yates and Contador. But Quintana, even with the Giro in his legs, is the most consistent and surely the biggest threat. One of Froome’s greatest strengths is his team, though Brailsford has some difficult selection decisions. Wout Poels, out for most of the season with a knee injury, is back training and wants to ride but might not be raceready, meaning that Mikel Landa, stage winner and king of the mountains at the Giro, will be called up. Landa isn’t happy about that – he’d like to lead the team at the Vuelta – but it’s confirmation of Froome’s continued status as top dog, because Froome wants to win the Vuelta, too. Geraint Thomas, after crashing out of the Giro, will go to the Tour, as will Sergio Henao, Micha¯ Kwiatkowski and riders such as Luke Rowe to do the leg-work on the flat stages.
The biggest threat could be off the bike. It has been a turbulent period for Team Sky and Brailsford and two reports – one by UK Sport into the culture at British Cycling, the other an anti-doping investigation concerning Team Sky by UK Anti-Doping – are expected in mid-June. While the outcome of the UKAD investigation is unclear, leaks from the UKS report suggest it will paint a damning picture of an organisation headed by Brailsford until 2014.
The magnifying glass effect of the Tour and lack of other big sporting events this summer could see this story become even bigger and raise the heat to intolerable levels in July. It could put a strain on Froome’s relationship with the team and Brailsford – though Brailsford insists not.
“There’s no issue there,” he says. “I like Chris a lot: I have a lot of respect for what he does and how he goes about it. We both agree on what’s important. We want the same thing, which is to win.”