JENS VOIGT
Jensie looks forward to the Tour, and makes a bold prediction of who is going to win
Our race columnist on the latest events
"He will use all these chances to gain enough time on the time triallists and will be able to hold on to his yellow jersey. Et voilà! Bardet va gagner!"
Time flies, right? Already the Tour de France is right ahead. It was the most exciting time of the season when I was a rider, and now I’m just an ordinary race fan, it still is. This time I am not going to save the best for last but I will let it all out right now. Ready? Romain Bardet is gonna win this Tour.
I think there is going to be the first French winner since Bernard Hinault in 1985. I can already hear you asking, “Why, and how, Jens?” So here’s the plan. His team should be able to limit their losses in the team time trial. Then, there are three mountain stages where after the last summit it’s downhill to the finish – stage 10 to Le Grand-Bornand, stage 16 to Bagnères-de-Luchon and stage 19 to Laruns. He has proven before that he can attack on the climb and hold the chasing group off until the finish line. On the summit finishes, he’s one of the best riders so he can gain time there as well. He will use all these chances to gain enough time on the better time triallists and in my eyes will be able to hold on to his yellow jersey in the only TT on the second-to-last-day. Et voilà. Bardet va gagner!
How about Chris Froome after his spectacular win in the Giro? I think he is going to go the same way as all the other people who have tried to win both the Giro and the Tour. Ain’t gonna happen. With his ongoing salbutamol case, his head will not be free and his focus will be a little off. In the Tour everyone needs to be at 100 per cent. On that matter, I am sure we all agree we would love a clear and final verdict in this case to be able to move on but it’s very unlikely that we’ll have a decision made before the Tour starts. This is far from being perfect for everyone: Chris himself, the Tour, the UCI, media, sponsors and most importantly for us, the viewers and fans.
How about Vincenzo Nibali? He’s already won MilanSan Remo, and he’s the only other guy apart from Froome who has won the Tour. He’s fun to watch, but I think he’ll just be a little short of the level you need to win the Tour. The same goes for Nairo Quintana. Every year with him, you think, ‘It’s now or never, Nairo.’ But I think it might be never.
Another thing I’m wondering about is how the teams are going to negotiate the tactics with only eight riders on a team. Look at Mitchelton-Scott. They want to bring Adam Yates as a GC contender and Caleb Ewan as a sprinter, and that leaves only six guys to do all the work. You can’t expect a tiny sprinter like Ewan to pull Adam Yates up the Alps, and a tiny climber can’t lead out the sprint for Ewan. It’s an interesting dilemma.
What else is going to happen? We’ll find out who the king of the sprinters will be – can Greipel, Kittel and Cavendish, the old boys, hold on to their crown, or will Gaviria, Groenewegen or Ewan overtake them this year? I think we’re right on the point where the younger guys can come through, so it will be a great battle. Let’s sit back and enjoy the Tour.
Jens Voigt retired in 2014 following an 18-year career as one of the sport's most loved and attacking riders. He held the Hour Record for 42 days. Commentators never did agree how to pronounce his name.