JENS VOIGT
After sunning himself in California, Jens makes some predictions for the Tour
Our race columnist on the latest events
As is always the case in life, the good news comes together with some bad news. The good news I learned while I was out at the Tour of California is that Peter Sagan is on his way back into his top shape with a solid stage win on the first day. It was not a typically easy Sagan win, but it was solid. But the bad news happened on the same day. Mark Cavendish may have finally beaten his Epstein-Barr virus, but he was nowhere in that sprint. I fear it will be a much longer way to come back to his old strength and speed than we all expected. But since I love Cav and only have the utmost respect for him, I hope that he can have yet another super comeback and a possible start in the Tour de France. And once he is there one can never count him out, right?!
Apart from Sagan, another impressive performance was by the whole Deceuninck-Quick Step team. They won three stages and the sprinters’ jersey, and were close in a couple of other stages. Not bad at all, although we are getting so used to them winning day after day that it’s becoming normal.
Do you remember my column after the classics when I talked about the young kids coming through and already winning big? In California it showed again. Sagan isn’t that old – he’s 29 - but he was by far the oldest stage winner. Every other one was in their early 20s. And the youngest happened to be the winner of the queen stage on Mount Baldy. Tadej Pogacčar is 20! And he ended up as the overall winner as well. I keep telling the older riders, try to get as many results as you can now. These young kids ain’t waiting much longer.
After talking to some riders and team directors, they all agreed that this year’s edition was a pretty hard one. Not only the profile with lots of climbing, but also because of the aggressive style of racing on every stage. Often, we saw good and solid riders in the break and even sometimes riders going for the GC went into the break. And watching Pogacčar I am absolutely convinced
Here is what’s gonna happen: Tom Dumoulin attacks and neither Chris Froome or Geraint Thomas are able to follow and Egan Bernal goes out there and saves the day for Ineos
that he has not reached his full potential yet. I will follow up closely his future path in cycling.
Since it’s June we need to talk about the Tour de France. It might sound stupid but it could turn out that Tom Dumoulin’s crash at the Giro will end up being a lucky thing for him. He will be a serious Tour contender now, fresh and hungry. It will be a tight game between the Team Ineos trio and him. Everybody else will be too tired from the Giro.
The only remaining question is, who will be the Ineos leader? If only the legs were to do the talking, my money would be on Egan Bernal. Here is what’s gonna happen: Dumoulin attacks and neither Chris Froome or Geraint Thomas are able to follow, and Bernal goes out there and saves the day for Ineos. The green jersey is going to be a battle between Peter Sagan and Michael Matthews. The KoM jersey will go again to Julian Alaphilippe after a bunch of epic breakaways. It’s all clear for me! Let’s see if I am a prophet or a dreamer, shall we?
Jens Voigt retired in 2014 following an 18-year career as one of the sport's most loved and attacking riders. He held the Hour Record for 42 days. Commentators never did agree how to pronounce his name.