Pre­dic­tions into sup­plies

Shepparton News - SN Local Real Estate - - FRONT PAGE -

Late last year the Fed­eral Gov­ern­ment’s Na­tional Hous­ing Sup­ply Coun­cil re­leased its 2011 State of Sup­ply re­port. The lat­est re­port has been ea­gerly awaited since the 2010 re­port high­lighted an Aus­tralia-wide gap of 178 400 be­tween the sup­ply of and de­mand for homes in 2009. The lat­est re­port es­ti­mates the na­tion­wide gap wors­ened by 8400 homes to 186 000 and, un­der cur­rent medium-level as­sump­tions, it is pro­jected to grow to 640 200 in 2030. Most of that short­age— 300 000 homes – will be in NSW. Vic­to­ria will ac­tu­ally have a small over­sup­ply. There was a small im­prove­ment in Vic­to­ria be­tween 2009 and 2010. This was due to two fac­tors: a sub­stan­tial in­crease in the sup­ply of new homes, from 41 500 in 2009 up to 46 300 in 2010; and a con­cur­rent drop in un­der­ly­ing de­mand from 52 700 new house­holds in 2009 to 38 100 in 2010. The growth in sup­ply was well above any other state; Queens­land rated low­est, with 35 000 new dwellings. The coun­cil has es­ti­mated the dwelling gap in Vic­to­ria at 17 600 com­pared to 22 700 in 2009. Un­for­tu­nately, the im­prove­ment is not pro­jected to con­tinue. The coun­cil projects it will in­crease to 22 900 in 2015 be­fore grad­u­ally im­prov­ing. These cal­cu­la­tions are con­cerned with the level of un­der­ly­ing de­mand and this does dif­fer from what is known as ef­fec­tive de­mand— that is, the quan­tity of hous­ing that owner-oc­cu­piers, in­vestors and ren­ters are able and will­ing to buy or rent in the hous­ing mar­ket.

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