Shepparton News



- with Aydin Payne

Here at Payney's Punt, we often like to look forward and not back on life. The past is in the rear-vision mirror and the future is ahead of us.

And that is exactly what we are doing after the lows of last weekend.

We are sure that we aren't alone in saying that our jean pockets ended the day a lot lighter than when we sat down for the opener at Flemington. It was an absolute stinker. Watching Artorius and Ayrton have their chances and still go under at low prices was the stuff of nightmares.

Just thinking about it makes us break into a cold sweat.

But all that is in the past now and we turn our gaze to tomorrow's action at Caulfield.

Nine races greet us along with the feature Group One Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m).

The rail is out 6m and even though Jane Bunn has predicted showers today and tomorrow, expect them to race on a Good 4.

As always, if you are plonking a few nickels and dimes on this weekend please remember to gamble responsibl­y.

Race 1. 12.30pm — BM78 (1200m)

Looks a tricky assignment first up for punters, but the speed should be there at the start with Dirty Thoughts (10), Pride Of Jenni (11) and Faretti (3) looking to push forward. We see the return of talented Tassie runner Hela (4). Winner of seven races from eight attempts, which is jaw-dropping stuff. Might find this too sharp first-up and we are looking elsewhere. The Gauch (2) is second-up and undefeated at this stage of prep and at this distance. Ran a close fourth last start and looks prime to run in the placings here. Pride Of Jenni is 2-0-1 from three runs at this distance and has placed both times when first-up. Last time when fresh the mare carried 59kg, but is 4kg lighter here and that should have her run strongly. Will get the box run from barrier two.

Top tip: Pride Of Jenni

Race 2. 1.05pm — Hcp (1100m)

It doesn't get any easier to decipher in the second. Looks like Ocean Beyond (8) and Athiri (2) will lead them around the bend. The bookies have highlighte­d three top chances in

Wisdom Of Water (5), Pandemic (4) and Athiri. Wisdom Of Water got caught out first-up against good sorts and will be fitter here. Pandemic looks the best out of the short-priced runners. Has strong form when fresh and excels at this distance for three wins and two placings. He's A Balter (7) has a hat-trick of wins and gets some serious weight relief. This is a rise in class, but the gelding may surprise. Prezado (1) ran quick last start with Masked Crusader - eventual race winner - the only runner to have a quicker final furlong split. And what type of performanc­e are we going to get from William Thomas (3)? Returns from a let-up and can run quick time.

Top tip: Pandemic

Race 3. 1.40pm — Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m)

Should be early speed from Scorched Earth (2) and Xtra Gear (6). A lot of love in the third for Godolphin runner Heresy (1). Has finished in the placings at past two starts. Ran second ahead of Scorched Earth when fresh. Rises to 1400m and being able to run out the distance is the big query. But will be fitter here and expect a strong showing. In terms of value runners Devout Hero (7) and Xtra Gear could be worth a look. The former won on debut before finding trouble last start over 1400m. Finished strongly in that race. Xtra Gear walked home in a recent maiden win and the filly has impressed with closing sectionals.

Top tip: Heresy

Race 4. 2.14pm — Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m)

The early speed looks to come from Lightsaber (2) and Military Expert (6). We are going with the former to get the job done. Is having its third start of the prep and rises up to 1400m, a distance that the colt has won at twice before. Has won thirdup. Won the G2 Sires Produce earlier this year over 1400m. Alpine Edge (1) ran second last start and the race winner went on to win again. First crack at the 1400m. Military Expert was brave last start at G3 level over 1400m, chased down in the final stages. Fitter, And Timson (8) impressed onlookers with his win on debut. Big rise in class.

Top tip: Lightsaber

Race 5. 2.55pm — Pinchapoo Plate (1000m)

Plenty of value here if you can land it. Early speed to come from Starry Legend (2), General Beau (1), Fake Love (7) and See You In Spring (8). General Beau is the favourite after two strong runs to start this prep. Drops down to 1000m. Fake Love is fresh and has won first-up before. That came over 1000m at this track. The early price looks overs. Worth having a nibble on Island Edition (6). Claimed a clinical win by almost five lengths on debut over 1000m and will be hunting them down. With the early speed it should allow this gelding to swoop late. Ashema (10) was scratched last week and the filly was one that had our interest. Has bar plates on which is less than ideal.

Forbes (5) has plenty of talent and narrowly missed against Anamoe on debut last year.

Top tip: Fake Love

Race 6. 3.35pm — BM90 (1400m) Hard to go past Annavisto (3) here and the mare is our best of the day. Just missed last start over this trip behind Turaath who went on to win the G2 Elope Stakes last weekend. Has placed second-up before and will be the one they have to beat. Good And Proper (6) ran behind Annavisto last start. Might be worth watching the market on Aidensfiel­d (11) before the jump. Ran second last start without any luck and has strong place form over this trip.

Snicker doodle dandy (7) hit the line hard when fresh and expect improvemen­t here.

Top tip: Annavisto

Race 7. 4.15pm — Naturalism Stakes (2000m)

No early tempo in here in what is a bumper field. Looks like Knights Order (5) will push forward from Delphi (4). Watch how the track plays out before this race, if there is any leader bias then these two might be worth a dabble. Nonconform­ist (11) looks primed to win here. Finished on the heels of the placegette­rs last start in the G2 Feehan Stakes. Is third-up here and has two wins from three attempts when at this stage of the prep. Has track form around Caulfield and is a two-time winner at 2000m. Tralee Rose (15)

could cap a memorable day for the Symon Wilde camp. Finished in the placings when fresh over 1700m and the rise in trip suits. Maps to get a soft run from barrier two. Grand Promenade (12) ran second when favourite at this trip last start. Is a consistent stayer and no doubt the Maher and Eustace stable has the gelding in good shape.

Top tip: Nonconform­ist

Race 8. 4.50pm — Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m)

It looks a belter of a race with plenty of runners able to salute. There should be early speed from Buffalo River (6), while Groundswel­l (8) and Streets Of Avalon (3) will push forward from the wide barriers. But all eyes will be on the first three gates. Beau Rossa (5) should get a cruisy run from the rails. Linda

Meech stays on board after that brave performanc­e against

Behemoth (1) in the Memsie. Behemoth won this race last year and is gunning for a hat-trick of wins. Jumps from barrier three. Probabeel (2) is our tip to salute. Won last start with 60kg and drops to 57kg here. Has a ridiculous 5:4-1-0 record when second-up and has won four times over this journey. Will be following Beau Rossa and Behemoth.

Regardsmar­ee (15) gets his first crack at G1 level and looks a great outside chance. Has been ridden on the speed the past two runs and just missed out. One to watch. Emergency runner I'm Thunderstr­uck (17) could be worth a look if it gets a gig. The descriptio­n for this Mick Price runner in our blackbook is ‘WOW'. Say no more.

Top tip: Probabeel

Race 9. 5.25pm — How Now Stakes (1200m)

Another tricky one to navigate in the last despite one of our favourites in La Mexicana (4) stepping out. Miss Albania (8) has got the speed to overcome the widest barrier and will look to take up the front running from Enchanting­ly (13). We think Bella Nipotina (3) shapes up as the one to beat. Ran second last start after finding trouble at the 300m. Still worked home late. La Mexicana has three wins from four attempts over 1200m and has a trio of wins at Caulfield. The only concern is the wide barrier.

Night Raid (5) is usually tip-top when fresh. Must forgive last start. Has drawn well and will be fighting it out late. Worth following Enchanting­ly who gets a weight advantage on the rest. Ran home to win by more than seven lengths last start at Morphettvi­lle, but this is harder company.

Top tip: Bella Nipotina

 ?? Picture: AAP ?? High probabilit­y: We are taking the punt on Probabeel (right) to salute in the Group One Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
Picture: AAP High probabilit­y: We are taking the punt on Probabeel (right) to salute in the Group One Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
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