Thiem has a chance but Djokovic will be very hard to beat Novak looks a winner

MELBOURNE Park is a fortress for Novak Djokovic.

And while on paper his chances might be slim, Dominic Thiem has the weapons to dismantle the Serbian superstar tonight. But it will take something special.

He’s been so good this tournament, but will have to go to a new level tonight.

I just hope he’s gone back and looked at last year’s final to know exactly what he’s in for.

Djokovic was ridiculous from the first ball against Rafael Nadal this time last year – he’ll allow Thiem, who was broken in the first game against Zverev, no time to work into the match.

He can’t falter early or Djokovic will sense the kill.

He’s got to have every expectation that Novak will come out exactly the same, and that was just about the best match he’s ever played.

But that’s the Djokovic you have to prepare to play – not hope that he’s going to be at something of a lower level.

The crowd could also be another factor tonight. For whatever reason, people have never really embraced Djokovic.

The biggest question mark is going to come around how much tennis Dominic Thiem has played. He was good against Zverev on Friday night, don’t get me wrong, but he wasn’t the Thiem we saw in the quarter-final against Nadal.

He was pushed to another four sets, and he was struggling with some sort of sickness, too. The reality is, he’s played a lot of tennis – close to 18 hours this fortnight, compared with Djokovic sitting at just over 12.

He looked a step slower, and if he has any chance to beat Novak, that can’t happen. He’s got to be at peak movement, peak hitting – basically like he was against Rafa but almost at another level again.

Novak’s going to hold the baseline more and understand that Thiem’s played a lot of tennis, and has been getting pushed a long way back in a lot of matches, but when he’s been at his best is when he’s been up in the court, striking. Novak can take that stuff away. If he stands up in the court, takes time away from Thiem and pushes him back, it will go a long way.

Verdict? Novak Djokovic in straights – 6-3 7-5 6-2.

Thiem has come along in huge leaps and bounds and has shown that on hardcourt, he can match it with the best.

But Novak is still physically, technically, tactically and mentally better.