Joel a threat to Chief Minister

Analysis

JOEL Bowden was the perfect Labor candidate.

Clever, charismatic and handsome, he enjoyed the backing of the Territory’s union movement and has a high profile thanks to his footy career and his famous family. And still he could pull only 30 per cent of the primary vote in yesterday’s Johnston by-election.

Bowden may have won but it was a disastrous result for Labor. If the swing against it is repeated in August, it will mean electoral doom.

The only positive for Labor is that voters still hate the CLP as much as they did in 2016.

No party comes out of this by-election looking good. Voters still don’t trust the CLP, they don’t want Labor but they’re far from sold on Territory Alliance.

And while last night’s result means Labor will maintain its 15 seats in parliament, Gunner might wind up wishing it hadn’t.

Hard left to Gunner’s right, Bowden is the Chief Minister’s foil.

Accustomed to speaking his mind, he will come up against the same trouble in caucus which ended the political career of his predecessor Ken Vowles.

Last night, the contrast between the Chief Minister and the newest member of his team was stark.

Gunner kept closely to his pre-prepared lines, delivering essentially the same answer to every question – byelections are tough for governments, Labor won every booth against a crowded field, there’s a lot of work to be done before August.

By contrast, the articulate Bowden is a natural communicator. A question about the impact Labor’s decision to lift the fracking moratorium had on its electoral fortunes Bowden skilfully flipped to talk about the federal party’s net zero emissions commitment.

Unlike every NT minister, Bowden can talk like a normal human.

It’s a skill which will help him connect him with voters and will position him as a natural rival to Gunner.