Why they can’t beat the favourite
Two-time Cup winner Corey Brown breaks down the 3200 metres
MELBOURNE Cup Day is like no other for a jockey. I know they are now comparing it to The Everest, but as a jockey you use all the tools in a Melbourne Cup – patience, timing, judgment, nerve, fitness – it all comes into play in the Melbourne Cup.
The pressure on Incentivise’s jockey Brett Prebble is going to be huge on Tuesday because this horse is the shortest-priced favourite in the Cup for a long, long time.
Brett’s ability to deal with pressure is one of his great strengths.
I used to watch Luke Nolen when he rode Black Caviar and you could see the pressure in him, but Brett is similar to Hugh Bowman … ice cold.
He’s a lot more aggressive than Hughie, but as far as dealing with pressure, that’s the style of bloke that he is. He’s the right rider in the room to deal with the situation that he’ll be faced with on Tuesday, without a doubt.
As a jockey in the Melbourne Cup, the moment I was able to relax was when my horse put foot to grass after stepping out of the roses and cantering down to the start.
The pressure is still there, but all the build-up is behind you.
It’s just you and your horse and the 23 others. The focus is all about the horse relaxing.
You want to give them a nice warm-up going to the start because you are going two miles, but you don’t want them too wound up.
The first 1000m is definitely the hardest part of the race for the jockey.
Twenty of the 24 jockeys all want to be in a similar position, so you really need to have your wits about you.
There’s a lot of screaming and yelling at each other in the run to the post the first time.
It’s very intense.
In a perfect world, Brett’s going to have Incentivise away from the rail, up near the speed, and he won’t want any bumping or pushing.
He looks to me to be a horse that needs a bit of room to get him going.
Leaving the straight and out to the seven furlongs, along the Maribyrnong River, if everything is going to plan and the horse is rolling along with the flow, this will be the most enjoyable part of the race for Brett. But it won’t be long until things start to hot up again at around the 1000m.
From when they turn off the back straight to the 1000m, the whole contest changes.
Brett’s probably going to be up in the first few pairs, and the pressure that comes into the race from the 1000m is like a wave that comes up behind you.
He’ll be ready, and that’s when his nerve is really going to be tested – that’s when he’ll get down and dirty.
If everything has gone to plan, at the half-mile Brett and Incentivise are going to be like a coiled spring, ready to explode.
At the point of the home turn, let’s say the horse has got four gears, he’s going to be at the top of third.
And given what I’ve seen of Incentivise, Brett knows him like the back of his hand, and there’s no waiting for the Flemington
Clock Tower.
He’s a different type of horse, you’ve got to cut him loose.
I’d say Brett will go full bore around the 400-350m mark, it will be on and I reckon it will be over by the time he gets to the 300-250m mark.
The more I look at the race, the easier I think it gets for Brett, and I can’t see how they will beat him.
Corey Brown won the Melbourne Cup on board Shocking in 2009 and repeated again with Rekindling in 2017