Every vote counts in Arafura poll
THE outcome of the Arafura by-election should be kept in perspective. Of course it’s good to see the democratic process in action, and it’s great that it’s happening in the Top End, which is arguably one of the best places in the world in which to live.
As one of 25 seats in the Labor-dominated Northern Territory parliament, the vote in Arafura however, is unlikely to give any real indication of how the major parties are tracking ahead of the next general election in August 2024.
Obviously all parties want to win as often as they can, but a loss – especially one which doesn’t upset the balance of power – is unlikely to force any panicked closed-door meetings to rethink tactics ahead of next year’s poll.
However, the outcome of every by-election inevitably leads to a new round of questions about leadership.
Even though by-elections are fought on local issues, it’s the leader of each party who will inevitably face questions about their own performance, and the role that played in the outcome.
Leadership speculation comes with the job.
A leader is under constant scrutiny and ambitious members will take any opportunity to start crunching the numbers.
A loss, may start rumblings that the leader has lost touch – and the questions are sure to follow. Even a win – perhaps one that was not as comfortable as expected – can be taken as a sign that the gloss may be rubbing off.
Chief Minister Natasha Fyles seems safe – and will be safer once things settle down with Canberra.
Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro is more vulnerable. Despite being their best performer, and the party’s greatest asset, her position is at risk simply because the CLP is looking down the barrel of another election defeat – and therefore has nothing to lose in choosing a new leader.
The one chance the CLP had of rebuilding its tarnished brand disappeared last week when party president Lawson Broad resigned over the party’s decision not to support the Voice.
Mr Broad was seen as the future of the CLP – with him gone, that future now seems a little further off.