Don’t bank on clear beef price
THREE of Australia’s banks are at odds over where beef cattle prices will be next year.
ANZ Bank said an analysis of the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator suggested cattle prices may have settled on a new norm of 570c/kg.
But the National Australia Bank believed the EYCI would fall to 500c/kg in 2018 and possibly lower, particularly with forecasts of drier weather.
Rural Bank’s Australian Cattle Annual Review report said it expected cattle prices to ease in 2018 before stabilising at a level higher than the fiveyear average of 468c/kg.
All banks agree a rebuilding of the US cattle herd is putting pressure on Australian markets, particularly those of Japan, South Korea and China.
ANZ compared the average EYCI of the past three years with that for 2010-2014 and said “current price averages reflect a new normal that demand from international markets, particularly China, is driving”.
But NAB agribusiness economist Phin Ziebell said global trends were likely to put pressure on Australian prices.
“We still see the EYCI at the 500 mark over the coming months, although a good summer would challenge this,” Mr Ziebell said in the bank’s In Focus: Beef report. FARMERS on the East Coast and the tip of the North-East should expect reasonable rainfall over the next few days.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Tim Bolden said the state’s weather pattern for the next week was an interesting set-up.
“We are seeing a breakdown of a series of highs, making it quite humid and bringing a lot of moisture over Tasmania,” Mr Bolden said.
“Tropical air has slid down to Tasmania, holding the moisture and giving us these warm nights.
“Next few days will bring reasonable rain for East Coast, but the Midlands will be a bit sheltered.
Mr Bolden said the forecast promised “something for everyone”, with thunderstorms across the state that should bring rain.
A trough ahead of a cold front is expected today.
“Once that trough moves through, it will linger for a few days off the east of Tasmania bringing a series of lows.
“With lows we often get rain and winds.”
From today and over the weekend rainfall is expected across the state, with potentially heavy falls.
“The rain should come in bands, coming in waves at times and then easing. It looks like it will be more continuous in the South.”
Mr Bolden said rainfall totals for the state in coming days were uncertain.
“It’s bit up in the air, but on Friday the South-West should receive significant rain.”
Much of the state should get 5 to 15mm, with even more in the South and East.
Tomorrow should be quite wet in the far North-East with 20m to 40mm of rain, up to 15mm elsewhere.