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An Aus­tralian Work­force and Pro­duc­tiv­ity Agency study uses four pos­si­ble sce­nar­ios to plan for fu­ture skills needs: >> De­mand for cer­tifi­cate III qual­i­fi­ca­tions and above is pro­jected to grow by at least 3 per cent a year in all but one sce­nario. >> Strong growth in health care, be­cause of the age­ing pop­u­la­tion, and in agri­cul­ture, aris­ing from de­mand in Asia, is forecast in all four sce­nar­ios. >> Tourism, ed­u­ca­tion and man­u­fac­tur­ing have sub­stan­tially dif­fer­ent out­comes across sce­nar­ios.

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