Analyst offers anxious hotel sector glimmer of optimism
UNCERTAINTY over travel bans and JobKeeper expiry dates has created a perfect storm for Cairns hotel operators despite a new study discovering cause for optimism on a national scale.
Hotel analyst Dransfield has found the industry could actually be better off without international tourists, with an upswing in domestic travellers expected to more than make up the visitation shortfall.
“Of the 181 million outbound nights, the data indicates that … 153 million are for outbound holiday and VFR (visiting friends and relatives) purposes,” the hotel futures report said.
“These are the most likely visitor types which may divert travel domestically, as opposed to say business travellers who are unlikely to replace an international business trip with a domestic one.
“Of the 153 million nights, we estimate that around 99 million nights or 64 per cent will be reallocated towards domestic holidays or VFRs.”
Such a result would mean domestic replacement in hotels could be considerably higher than the loss of international nights in both cities and regions – and by some margin.
“Whilst the analysis shows over 100 per cent recovery, the step-up will occur over time and will be affected by seasonality, so full immediate recovery is not expected as a universal proposition,” the report continued.
“The outlook is however much more positive than might be initially thought.”
Crystalbrook Collection CEO Geoff York hopes such predictions prove true but still holds major concerns about the immediate future.
It has become almost impossible to plan ahead amid talk of Queensland’s interstate borders being shut until September or beyond, plus the proposed North Queensland travel bubble hanging in limbo.
“We’re accepting bookings from August, but it’s on the basis that we don’t know if we will be open or not,” Mr York said.
All three of the company’s Cairns hotels, Riley, Bailey and Flynn are closed.
Mr York said the JobKeeper program had been a valuable lifeline to keep staff employed but it would not last forever.
“We were looking at progressively reopening from July and August but if borders are closed until September, it puts a line in the sand,” he said.