Defence won’t win the war

IF you believe Anthony Albanese is a small target in this election – a popular, albeit slightly unfair view – then where does that leave Scott Morrison?

The past three years have put a target on the PM’s back, and he appears to be doing all he can to avoid making it bigger before May 21. Three and a half weeks into this campaign, there has barely been a day where the Coalition has proactively set the agenda. Morrison has dictated the debate, but through attacks on the opposition and reactions to events, rather than with positive ideas.

This worked in 2019 when he ripped apart Bill Shorten’s complicated policy platform, leaving voters feeling safer returning a still relatively unknown PM instead of risking change. Morrison had little of substance to offer, but that was a deliberate ploy to his advantage.

Albanese is refusing to fall into that trap. Even so, his more modest initiatives are still setting the terms of the debate given Morrison’s policy vacuum.

The positive spin on this from the Coalition is they can get away with campaigning on targeted local announcements, rather than nationally significant new ideas, because they have a record of action in government which the opposition cannot match.

There is some truth in that. No matter what Albanese promises, it sounds slightly hollow compared to Morrison’s concrete achievements: JobKeeper, the AUKUS pact, income tax cuts, and the remarkable improvement in the unemployment rate.

But the longer this campaign goes, with the Coalition lagging behind, the more it seems Morrison needs to offer voters a new and positive reason to vote for him – not just against Albanese.

While the Labor proposals that have garnered the most attention – urgent care clinics and a shared home ownership scheme – are far from perfect, the Coalition’s criticisms are hardly going to scare off voters in the same way as their attack on Shorten’s tax plans.

The dominant external issues – first China’s security deal with the Solomon Islands, then the Reserve Bank’s decision to lift interest rates – have at least given Morrison a chance to fight on his preferred turf of national security and economic management. And yet even then, he has been on the defensive.

He claims his government saw the Solomons agreement coming and the rate increase is a sign of the economy’s strength, while also arguing only the Coalition can be trusted to stand up to China and keep rates under control. Contradictions abound.

Morrison’s case for re-election inevitably leads back to the choice he wants to frame between himself and Albanese. The blunt version of this is “better the devil you know” – which the Labor leader deliberately called out at his campaign launch.

According to Albanese, Australians know Morrison failed to handle the bushfires or order enough vaccines, and that aged care is in crisis, it’s harder to buy a home or see a doctor, and the cost of everything is going up while wages aren’t.

“That’s the devil you know,” Albanese said, and that’s what puts a target on Morrison’s back.

Particularly in inner-city seats, strategists on both sides say the PM’s personal brand is a drag on the Liberal vote. He has been unsighted in seats where independents are challenging moderate Liberals, prompting mounting concern within the government that one or more of Kooyong, Goldstein, North