TOM MINEAR

Sydney and Wentworth will fall.

According to Labor insiders, Morrison’s unpopularity puts them in the box seat to win target electorates including Chisholm, Boothby, Swan, Pearce and Reid, and bolsters their chances to claim others such as Bennelong and Brisbane.

Other than his plan to cut the cost of medicine, a policy oneupped by Albanese within 24 hours, it is telling that the proactive decision of Morrison to have made the biggest impact on the campaign conversation is hand-picking Katherine Deves to run in Warringah, sparking days of debate about trans women in sport. Labor didn’t take the bait.

Perhaps Morrison can flip the electoral map and pull off another miracle. After 2019, anything is possible. But if his path to victory was narrow then, he will have an even harder time now finding enough seats to claim from Labor to offset losses elsewhere.