SPRING RAIN POSSIBLE
El Nino unlikely
ACCORDING to the latest ENSO wrap-up from the Bureau of Meteorology, there is no indication an El Nino event is likely. At this stage, ocean temperatures, trade winds and tropical cloud patterns are all generally within neutral levels.
The exception remains the Southern Oscillation Index.
Since March, SOI values have generally remained positive.
If this trend continues to early summer, it would help provide the basis for a potential improvement in seasonal conditions throughout most of Queensland.
It is worth noting that since October last year, much of western Queensland and north-east South Australia has recorded less than 60% of the long-term average rainfall for that period.
Of the seven ocean atmosphere climate models the Bureau of Meteorology uses to forecast ENSO, all currently indicate a neutral climate pattern is likely to persist through to January 2014.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in progress is also forecast to persist into mid-spring.
Historically, this increases the potential of above-average rainfall during winter and spring throughout the southern half of Australia, extending into western and southern Queensland during spring.
To keep updated, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
For a USA perspective on likely changes in the Pacific, try the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/?cpc.
Weekly soil moisture total maps for the upper and lower soil layers are now available.
These maps provide a snapshot of relative soil moisture for the most recently available week, compared with the 1961–1990 average for that month.
For more information, go to the Australian Water Availability Project website: www.eoc.csiro.au/awap.
As at August 20, the 30-day average of the SOI was plus 3.9.
For more information, go to www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au.