Warm Christmas is on the cards

THE Christmas period is shaping up to be warm and dry for Toowoomba, with recent conditions indicating the chance of an “unprecedented weather event”.

Climatologist from the Bureau of Meteorology Felicity Gamble said it was likely Christmas would be similar to last year.

“There is an 80 per cent chance December will be warmer than we have seen in recent years,” Ms Gamble said.

“We have also recorded the signals for drier weather, which could potentially mean the start of an El Nino.

“Though unconfirmed, it is unusual to see the El Nino pattern start so late in the year. If it does develop it could lead to severe consequences for next year.”

Ms Gamble said this could be the first El Nino since 2016.

“We have had some late developing events before, but November has been the latest.

“We have been monitoring the ocean’s surface temperatures and the risk factors have increased.

“If it occurs, it could lead to a warmer start to next year, which would have a run-on effect through winter and spring.”

Ms Gamble said chances of individual and multi-day heat events increased as a result of an El Nino pattern.

“It varies across the country, but we often see record breaking heat events in the Northern states during an El Nino conditions.

“We also often see less tropical activity, so fewer cyclones and often fewer summer storms.”

But before you make firm plans for a Christmas Day barbecue or cricket game, Ms Gamble said to wait for the weekly forecast.

“Although we are predicting a warmer summer, storms and temperatures are hard to foresee this early in the season.”

This Sunday will bring a respite from the warmer than average summer as Toowoomba’s forecast temperature is set to plummet to 21 degrees.

Bureau of Meteorology spokeswoman Kimba Wong said the region should prepare for temperatures 10 degrees below the summer average.

“This weekend we will see a southerly wind change up the coast, the cooler air mass pushing through,” Ms Wong said

“Temperatures will cool by Saturday, with a drop to 21 degrees on Sunday - well below the summer average of 27 degrees.

“On Sunday evening, we are predicting temperatures to fall low as 15 degrees.”

Ms Wong said the region could expect mostly “fine days” into next week.

“There is a slight chance of showers throughout the week, a few millimetres here and there,” Ms Wong said.

“However, the days will be a mixture of sunny and partially cloudy.

“We are seeing winds funnel up the valley, but this will drop off at the start of next week. It is important to note this will increase the fire hazard risk.”