Hamilton on track for win
THE LNP is on track for its worst primary vote in Groom since it became a unified party in Queensland, but Garth Hamilton is still expected to comfortably win reelection.
That’s according to new polling by YouGov, which has also suggested Labor could achieve its best result in the conservative seat since 2007.
The numbers also cast doubt on the impact of highprofile independents Kirstie Smolenski and Suzie Holt.
The massive survey commissioned by News Corp of nearly 19,000 Australians has been described as the most robust depiction of national election trends by a media outlet in the nation’s history.
Instead of producing specific poll numbers for each seat, which is notoriously difficult, YouGov cross-referenced the survey data with information about the demographics of individual electorates to produce seat-by-seat results.
In Groom, Mr Hamilton is predicted to achieve a primary vote of 48 per cent, which would be the first time the LNP has dropped below 50 per cent since it was established in 2008.
In fact, it would be the first time either the Liberals or Nationals have not won on first preferences during a campaign where they weren’t running against each other.
Labor’s Gen Allpass is predicted to hit 24 per cent with first preferences, which if it was replicated on May 21 would be the party’s best performance since the 2007 election.
During that campaign, Chris Meibusch achieved an astonishing 34 per cent primary vote.
On a two-party preferred basis, Mr Hamilton would comfortably win the seat by 64-36.
One Nation’s Grant Abraham (12 per cent) and the Greens’ Mickey Berry (eight per cent) are expected to hold steady on preferences, while the UAP’s Melissa Bannister is on track for just two per cent of the vote.
The major unknowns in 2022 remain the performances of Ms Smolenski and Ms Holt, with the YouGov polling suggesting they could share just six per cent of the vote, along with last-minute Australian Federation Party candidate Ryan Otto.