Pollsters struggle to gauge voting

POLLSTERS are finding it difficult to get a proper read on key electorates, with fed-up voters refusing to answer calls in the final run-up to the election.

An exclusive YouGov poll shows Labor is headed towards a convincing election victory, predicting the opposition will claim nine seats off the government and take 80 in total. It needs only 76 to form government.

Several pollsters who spoke to News Corp said the traditional marginal seats where Liberal and Labor were battling it out, and the “teal’’ seats where tight races are on between Liberals and Climate 200-backed independents, were being bombarded by thousands of calls from pollsters.

Traditionally it takes at least three calls to get one person to agree to a telephone survey, meaning each pollster conducting telephone polling needs to make around 3000 calls to get 1000 responses.

But voters are so fed up with being bombarded they’re refusing to answers calls.

This means pollsters take longer to get a sample, and the issues have likely shifted or changed. It also means those who do answer are more likely to be politically engaged and not necessarily representative of the electorate.

Director at RedBridge Group, Kosmos Samaras, said the closer the election date came, the more difficult it was becoming to sample voter intentions in the key seats.

Mr Samaras said it was also difficult to get a proper read on how many people intended to vote for Queensland billionaire Clive Palmer’s (above) United Australia Party.