Hamilton predicted to return

GROOM MP Garth Hamilton is in the box to reclaim his seat this weekend, but election analysts say the Australian voters are becoming far less reliable with their ballot habits.

Mr Hamilton, a former mining engineer, is expected to hold the safe conservative seat from a large array of candidates, including Labor, One Nation as well as other minor parties and independents.

But the University of Southern Queensland’s Professor Geoff Cockfield said it was not impossible that the LNP candidate might need preferences to get over the line, something that has not occurred in Groom since the party was formed in 2008.

“It would be a significant thing to have to get to preferences (for a winner), then the interesting thing is looking to the next election to see if this is a blip or not,” he said.

“What I’m thinking is we are in uncertain voting times, we’re looking at increasing uncertainty and less attachment to major parties.”

Prof Cockfield said he would expect to see gains for Labor and the United Australia Party, adding that the primary votes for independent candidates Suzie Holt and Kirstie Smolenski could surprise the electorate.

“Let’s say if Garth was in the high 40s, it’s going to depend who comes in second — you’d certainly expect that plenty of Suzie preferences would go back to Garth,” he said.

QUT Adjunct Associate Professor and former state Labor Minister John Mickel said while he agreed Mr Hamilton was a near certainty to win, he had been impressed by the independents’ campaigns.

“(Ms Holt) is a viable candidate and is well-connected in the community,” he said.

“She seems to be someone who is very active in the community.

“The other thing she’s starting to get is media attention, it’s something everybody craves in a positive sense.”

Prof Mickel also said the “freedom movement” parties like the UAP, One Nation and the Australian Federation Party could also draw extra support in Groom.