Brollies out: Wet winter on cards

METEOROLOGISTS fear we could be in for a wet winter followed by above average rain later in the year as La Nina comes back for a rare “triple dip”.

The latest climate model outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology points towards an above average chance of rainfall over winter and spring.

Weatherzone’s Rob Sharpe said there was a higher probability of wetter than average conditions in the winter, particularly with another weather indicator called the “Indian Ocean Dipole” going negative.

“For the winter coming, a lot of Australia is expecting wetter than average conditions,” he said.

“The Indian Ocean Dipoles traditionally are strong in winter and early spring and the fact it is going negative, means it’s the wet phase, equivalent to La Nina, which is going to have an impact and bring about more rain.”

Expert advice from the BOM on climate drivers show an increased chance of a negative “Indian Ocean Dipole”.

That’s the yardstick that measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the Arabian Sea and the eastern Indian Ocean, which end up affecting Australia’s climate.

“A negative Indian Ocean Dipole increases the chances of above average winter– spring rainfall for much of Australia,” the bureau says.

And it predicts that even if the current La Nina eases, the “forecast sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical Pacific still favours average to above average winter rainfall for eastern Australia”.

Other bodies, like the US Climate Prediction Centre and the Columbia Climate School, are predicting a “high probability” of La Nina continuing from June to August.

“The … outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Nina event with high probability (62 per cent chance) during JunAug 2022,” the Columbiabased institute predicts.

Mr Sharpe said we were still in a La Nina pattern, and it’s “pretty unusual” for it to stick around into autumn.

“It will break down, so if it develops again in a new event, that would be a rare triple event,” he said. “We’ve already had two back-to-back La Ninas in the past two summers, and if another develops from spring into summer, that would be a third and would be quite uncommon.”

Three-year La Ninas are very rare, with the most recent in 1998-2001 and in 1973–76.

If the gloomy weather persists, another potential downside to keep a check on over winter will be Seasonal Affective Disorder, or SAD.

SAD expert Macquarie University Professor of Psychology Nick Titov says the condition has been recognised since the 1980s. He said that although Australia usually gets at least 10 hours of sunlight during deep winter, it’s worth being aware of the symptoms.

“It seems to be related to changes in natural light, which is why it’s mostly associated with the winter months,” he said.

“The main symptoms to look out for are feeling sad, changes in appetite (eating more) and sleep (wanting to sleep more), not enjoying things the way you used to and feeling hopeless about yourself, the world and the future. There could also be a lack of energy and difficulty getting out of bed in the morning.”