‘Super El Nino’ could develop

A “super El Nino” could form in the next 90 days bringing an increased risk of extreme droughts, floods and storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued the warning, saying it could develop as early as this month and persist throughout winter.

The NOAA is also predicting a 55 per cent chance of a significant or “super El Nino” on the horizon later in the year from November to January and an 80 per cent chance of at least a moderate El Nino.

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Senior Research Scientist Dr Mike McPhaden said El Ninos typically came every four years or so.

“We’re due one. However, the magnitude of the predicted El Niños shows a very large spread, everything from blockbuster to wimp,” he told The Inertia.

Dr McPhaden said big El Niños tended to come along every 10 to 15 years and so it would be “very unusual” to see one so soon after the last major one in 2015 and 16.

“Even so, nature has a way of tripping us up just when we think we know it all,” he said.

“The really big ones reverberate all over the planet with extreme droughts, floods, heatwaves, and storms. If it happens, we’ll need to buckle up. It could also fizzle out. We should be watchful and prepared either way.”

The Bureau of Meteorology, in a report issued on May 9, said modelling showed that sea surface temperatures would pass the El Nino threshold by August.

Queensland-based Early Warning Network meteorologist Ken Kato said confidence of an El Nino developing later this winter or spring was much higher than usual.

“Typically autumn is quite difficult with predictability,” Mr Kato said.