Australia’s relationship with India set to blossom
There are many ways to view the sudden cancellation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, set for Sydney this week. Some see it as a snub to Australia and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Even if nothing concrete came out of the dialogue, the optics of the summit proceeding would have demonstrated to Australians and, to the region, a serious commitment to this informal alliance. Using the US debt ceiling impasse as the reason is seen as an excuse. After all, Biden’s physical presence would add little.
Rather, the cancellation is confirmation that following his heavy G7 schedule, the journey was beyond this increasingly feeble US president. Washington’s detractors take it as a metaphor for America’s fading exceptionalism.
Beijing is certainly keen to promote this view. It portrays Biden’s withdrawal as evidence of America’s parlous political and economic state and warns countries in the IndoPacific that the United States cannot be relied upon.
This line will resonate in Port Moresby where Biden was meant to stop en route to Sydney. He would have been the first sitting president to visit Papua New Guinea and his presence was intended to counter China’s growing influence there.
In addition to meeting PNG’s prime minister James Marapeto, Biden was scheduled to meet 14 Pacific island leaders. Their disappointment is something the Chinese will exploit given enduring Pacific Islands perceptions that the US really sees them as just “fly over” countries.
Beijing will contrast Biden’s no show to President Xi Jinping’s record. In 2014, the newly installed Xi paid a state visit to Fiji and held a group meeting with Pacific island leaders. They agreed to establish a strategic partnership based on mutual respect.
Four years later, President Xi visited Papua New Guinea where he had another group meeting with Pacific island leaders. No doubt Narendra Modi’s PNG visit, the first by an Indian prime minister, compensated in part for Mr Biden’s absence.
And his promise to 14 Pacific island leaders of Indian support no doubt gave comfort to PNG when Mr Marapeto and US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, signed two new security pacts covering defence cooperation and maritime surveillance. Unremarked amidst the Biden cancellation noise was Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida’s quiet withdrawal.
Tokyo views with alarm Canberra’s recent interventions in the energy sector to secure cheaper energy for domestic households and businesses.
With Japan and India building 73 coal-fired power stations between them, energy security would have been a hot Quad agenda item.
Yet, on the sidelines of the Hiroshima G7 meeting and, before a makeshift Quad meeting reconvened, Mr Albanese and Mr Biden signed an agreement to increase climate and clean energy cooperation.
Given Australia’s recent behaviour, what weight will Japan and India put on Mr Albanese’s subsequent assurances of reliable supply?
If there is a silver lining in the Quad cancellation, it is that Mr Modi and India will now be the focus of attention, not the American president. Following the belated signing last November of a landmark comprehensive economic cooperation agreement, Mr Modi’s decision to come is significant.
With the CECA in place, he wants to take the relationship to a “new level”. Indeed, with a commitment to national and regional security through the Quad, there is the potential for political and economic ties between the two countries to grow rapidly, eclipsing Australia’s dealings with the Chinese, even at their zenith. The ball is in Australia’s court.
China is understandably concerned about the rise and rise of India under Narendra Modi’s leadership. With its US relationship maturing and its influence in the Indo-Pacific growing, Beijing knows New Delhi threatens its global standing. It is acutely aware that India’s six per cent growth rate is the fastest in the world.
Australia and India are ideal partners. India is a thriving democracy with many cultural ties, including English language, cricket and a period under British rule.
Yet, despite India’s extraordinary progress, Australia’s perceptions remain outdated. Not so Britain and Europe who are hammering on the Indian prime minister’s door for an Australian CECA equivalent.
Mr Modi’s visit is therefore most timely and opens Australian eyes to contemporary India and the enormous potential which so excites the British and Europeans. For that we can thank Mr Biden.