LABOR’S $600B CARBON PRICE
ALP models show emissions plan would hammer economy
EXCLUSIVE LABOR’S plan to cut carbon emissions by 40 to 60 per cent by 2030 would deliver a devastating blow to the economy – stripping $600 billion from economic growth over the next 15 years, its own modelling commissioned while in government has revealed.
It would also cost tens of thousands of jobs and all 37 coal fired power stations in Australia could also shut down if the plan went ahead, according to a 2013 Treasury and Department of Industry and Climate Change modelling report.
A summary of the economic modelling of the ambitious goal, which the ALP adopted last month, was released after the last election.
But detailed data showing the economic impacts of the “high price” scenario were buried in more than 300 spreadsheets on the Climate Change Authority’s website.
Environment Minister Greg Hunt , whose office provided an analysis of the numbers contained in the report, said: “Labor asked for this modelling but of course given the results, they would never want these numbers to see the light of day.”
The ALP conference adopted the latest recommendations of the Climate Change Authority to achieve a 50 per cent chance of limiting global warming to a 2C rise – requiring reducing emissions by 40-60 per cent on 2000 levels by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2050.
LABOR’S ambitious plan to cut carbon emissions by 40 to 60 per cent by 2030 would deliver a devastating blow to the economy, stripping a massive $600 billion from economic growth over the next 15 years, the party’s own modelling, commissioned in government, has revealed.
The emissions cut would also cost tens of thousands of jobs and would likely lead to the closure of all 37 coal-fired power stations in Australia.
The shocking predictions are contained in a 2013 Treasury and Department of Industry and Climate Change modelling report.
Labor’s plan, which the party adopted last month at its national conference in Melbourne, would have to assume a carbon price of $209 a tonne by 2030, according to analysis of the models.
It would also push wholesale power prices up 78 per cent over the next 15 years, radically increasing power bills for homeowners and businesses.
A summary of the economic modelling, which also contained better economic predictions on more moderate targets, was released after the last election.
However, detailed data and graphs showing the economic impacts of the “high price” scenario were buried in more than 300 spreadsheets within the Climate Change Authority’s website.
The models, commissioned by the then Labor government,
also warned that wages growth would be 6 per cent lower than forecast under a “high-price scenario”, which it said was consistent with a 40 to 60 per cent cut to 2000 emissions levels by 2030.
Gross national income (GNI) would also be 4.3 per cent lower than it would be with no carbon price, equating to a loss of $4900 in nominal GNI terms per person.
Related modelling figures suggested it would require a renewable energy target of closer to 69 per cent – more than Labor’s 50 per cent goal, which has been costed at more than $85 billion. The real carbon price per tonne would be $73 by 2020 and $135 by 2030.
But this figure is based on 2012 dollars and equates to a nominal carbon price of $209 a tonne in 2030 when taking into account Treasury’s assumption of 2.5 per cent annual CPI growth.
Environment Minister Greg Hunt, whose office provided an analysis of the numbers, said: “Labor can’t dismiss or distance themselves from this.
“This is Labor’s carbon tax target modelled using Labor’s numbers.”