He’s a Special project
Give Missile another shot at favourite trip and leading from front
Two-year-olds to kick off the day. Happy to let the market tell me late here what to make of first starter Ronstar. His trial was impressive but he has only had the one trial. Press Box was good on debut but she is well found all the same considering she may want 1400m now and she was only in a maiden on debut. Stunts gets the blinkers on and probably went too slow in front last start, while River Bird peaked on the run fresh and should appreciate the extra 100m.
Betting strategy: Press Box the safe way to go on top but happy to change if Ronstar is supported heavily. Tricky race.
Looks a good race to attack as I’m keen to take on the $2.90 favourite Seaway. He was good last start but he had every favour possible, drops back to 1400m, maps to be out the back and has 60.5kg. He looks a good risk here. I think the winner will come from either Gaulois or Lisdoonvarna. Gaulois shapes well second-up and he just overdid it fresh in the run and got a bit too far back. Lisdoonvarna was enormous last start in the James Carr when trapped wide throughout on a strong speed.
Betting strategy: I think you can back both Gaulois at $4 and Lisdoonvarna at $6.50 and hopefully get a result. I’m keen to take on Seaway at $2.90.
Keen to play again here in the shape of Impending’s full sister Epidemic. Her win was only narrow first-up but her late splits were easily the best of the day right from the 800m home and she is progressive. The only concern seems to be staying at 1100m but there’s good speed here and that should counteract that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win this and then potentially head north for a three-year-old stakes race up there. Charlayne was just fair in the PJ Bell and she has been kept fresh since.
Betting strategy: Epidemic to win at $4.
I think the market has this pretty right with Bocelli and Coup De Main vying for favouritism. Bocelli looks a promising horse. His only defeat came in the Country Championships Qualifier, where he was 1000m to 1400m and just peaked the last 200m. He has won well since and comes here fresh. Coup De Main is two from two and should give some cheek in front, while Gagosian should have won at Tamworth last start. And while his late splits weren’t great, they rarely run sizzling time at Tamworth.
Betting strategy: Bocelli on top of Coup De Main. Gagosian best roughie.
The even money on offer about Roman Son seems a good bet again. Richard Freedman was tempted to throw him in the deep end in a Doomben Cup but kept him for this instead. He has been dominant his past two and should keep on winning. If there is a danger, it’s probably only going to come from Solo Mission. He won a pretty average 1500m race fresh but he is better over this trip.
Betting strategy: Roman Son to win.
Manolo Blahniq has trialled up well for this and he can have the last say. He can reel off some very good late splits and races well fresh. Albumin gets the blinkers on for the first time and he is always capable. I’ve always thought he was a better horse ridden quieter, though, but he was up outside the lead with the blinkers on in a recent trial. Betting strategy: Manolo Blahniq on top.
Pretty keen on the chances of Special Missile here. I know a few who have followed him would be thinking “not again” but this is the first time this prep I think I’ve tipped him. He finally gets to his right trip (won four from five at 1500m) and hopefully should be able to find the front and dictate. Passage Of Time can improve, while I’m convinced Up ’N’ Rolling is a false favourite. He returned to winning form last-start but it was a much weaker race than this and the second and fourth horses have been soundly beaten since. Happy to take Up ’N’ Rolling on.
Betting strategy: Special Missile is a good price at $4.40. One of the gambles of the day.
Tricky race that’s hard to assess. Medaille was chasing a long way out in a fast-run race first-up and she generally improves sharply second-up. She gets a good run and she is an each-way hope. I can make a case for Latitude here. Sure, this is a big jump from the country but she is your leader and she just might run a cheeky race from the front. I Am Serious will be getting home but does she need one more?
Betting strategy: Toughest race of the day. Go wide in the quaddie. Latitude a place is not the worst gamble. Medaille on top for now but tough, tough race.
I’ll be having three bets and I’m hopeful we can get a couple of collects. Firstly, Noire looks beautifully placed off two very nice trials. Her form last prep was outstanding. She defeated a subsequent Group winner when bringing up a hat-trick of wins and then beat all bar Lanciato, who won his next two starts at Listed and Group level. She looks a good bet at $4 plus. The one I want to make a case for at odds is Satirical Magic. He has won his past two starts with this pattern (off freshens) and his recent trial was very nice. He is yet to place in three runs at Rosehill but don’t read too much into that as all three runs have been at the wrong trips.
Betting strategy: Noire to win and Satirical Magic to place at $7. Boxed quinella 2, 4, 11, 13.
Epidemic is a progressive type.