He’s a Spe­cial project

Give Mis­sile an­other shot at favourite trip and lead­ing from front

The Daily Telegraph (Sydney) - - Racing - BRAD DAVID­SON

RACE 1

Two-year-olds to kick off the day. Happy to let the mar­ket tell me late here what to make of first starter Ron­star. His trial was im­pres­sive but he has only had the one trial. Press Box was good on de­but but she is well found all the same con­sid­er­ing she may want 1400m now and she was only in a maiden on de­but. Stunts gets the blinkers on and prob­a­bly went too slow in front last start, while River Bird peaked on the run fresh and should ap­pre­ci­ate the ex­tra 100m.

Bet­ting strat­egy: Press Box the safe way to go on top but happy to change if Ron­star is sup­ported heav­ily. Tricky race.

RACE 2

Looks a good race to at­tack as I’m keen to take on the $2.90 favourite Se­away. He was good last start but he had ev­ery favour pos­si­ble, drops back to 1400m, maps to be out the back and has 60.5kg. He looks a good risk here. I think the win­ner will come from ei­ther Gaulois or Lis­doon­va­rna. Gaulois shapes well sec­ond-up and he just over­did it fresh in the run and got a bit too far back. Lis­doon­va­rna was enor­mous last start in the James Carr when trapped wide through­out on a strong speed.

Bet­ting strat­egy: I think you can back both Gaulois at $4 and Lis­doon­va­rna at $6.50 and hope­fully get a re­sult. I’m keen to take on Se­away at $2.90.

RACE 3

Keen to play again here in the shape of Im­pend­ing’s full sis­ter Epi­demic. Her win was only nar­row first-up but her late splits were eas­ily the best of the day right from the 800m home and she is pro­gres­sive. The only con­cern seems to be stay­ing at 1100m but there’s good speed here and that should coun­ter­act that. I wouldn’t be sur­prised to see her win this and then po­ten­tially head north for a three-year-old stakes race up there. Char­layne was just fair in the PJ Bell and she has been kept fresh since.

Bet­ting strat­egy: Epi­demic to win at $4.

RACE 4

I think the mar­ket has this pretty right with Bo­celli and Coup De Main vy­ing for favouritism. Bo­celli looks a promis­ing horse. His only de­feat came in the Coun­try Cham­pi­onships Qual­i­fier, where he was 1000m to 1400m and just peaked the last 200m. He has won well since and comes here fresh. Coup De Main is two from two and should give some cheek in front, while Gagosian should have won at Tam­worth last start. And while his late splits weren’t great, they rarely run siz­zling time at Tam­worth.

Bet­ting strat­egy: Bo­celli on top of Coup De Main. Gagosian best roughie.

RACE 5

The even money on of­fer about Ro­man Son seems a good bet again. Richard Freed­man was tempted to throw him in the deep end in a Doomben Cup but kept him for this in­stead. He has been dom­i­nant his past two and should keep on win­ning. If there is a dan­ger, it’s prob­a­bly only go­ing to come from Solo Mis­sion. He won a pretty aver­age 1500m race fresh but he is bet­ter over this trip.

Bet­ting strat­egy: Ro­man Son to win.

RACE 6

Manolo Blah­niq has tri­alled up well for this and he can have the last say. He can reel off some very good late splits and races well fresh. Al­bu­min gets the blinkers on for the first time and he is al­ways ca­pa­ble. I’ve al­ways thought he was a bet­ter horse rid­den qui­eter, though, but he was up out­side the lead with the blinkers on in a re­cent trial. Bet­ting strat­egy: Manolo Blah­niq on top.

RACE 7

Pretty keen on the chances of Spe­cial Mis­sile here. I know a few who have fol­lowed him would be think­ing “not again” but this is the first time this prep I think I’ve tipped him. He fi­nally gets to his right trip (won four from five at 1500m) and hope­fully should be able to find the front and dic­tate. Pas­sage Of Time can im­prove, while I’m con­vinced Up ’N’ Rolling is a false favourite. He re­turned to win­ning form last-start but it was a much weaker race than this and the sec­ond and fourth horses have been soundly beaten since. Happy to take Up ’N’ Rolling on.

Bet­ting strat­egy: Spe­cial Mis­sile is a good price at $4.40. One of the gam­bles of the day.

RACE 8

Tricky race that’s hard to as­sess. Medaille was chas­ing a long way out in a fast-run race first-up and she gen­er­ally im­proves sharply sec­ond-up. She gets a good run and she is an each-way hope. I can make a case for Lat­i­tude here. Sure, this is a big jump from the coun­try but she is your leader and she just might run a cheeky race from the front. I Am Se­ri­ous will be get­ting home but does she need one more?

Bet­ting strat­egy: Tough­est race of the day. Go wide in the quad­die. Lat­i­tude a place is not the worst gam­ble. Medaille on top for now but tough, tough race.

RACE 9

I’ll be hav­ing three bets and I’m hope­ful we can get a cou­ple of col­lects. Firstly, Noire looks beau­ti­fully placed off two very nice tri­als. Her form last prep was out­stand­ing. She de­feated a sub­se­quent Group win­ner when bring­ing up a hat-trick of wins and then beat all bar Lan­ci­ato, who won his next two starts at Listed and Group level. She looks a good bet at $4 plus. The one I want to make a case for at odds is Satir­i­cal Magic. He has won his past two starts with this pat­tern (off fresh­ens) and his re­cent trial was very nice. He is yet to place in three runs at Rose­hill but don’t read too much into that as all three runs have been at the wrong trips.

Bet­ting strat­egy: Noire to win and Satir­i­cal Magic to place at $7. Boxed quinella 2, 4, 11, 13.

Epi­demic is a pro­gres­sive type.

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