Bart has punters, bookies puzzled
Jockey B. Rawiller D. Dunn B. Shinn J. Lloyd O. Bosson H. Bowman J. Parkes K. Forrester D. Browne R. Stewart M. Zahra K. McEvoy D. Lane J. Doyle IS Black Heart Bart a weighted certainty or a good business risk based on his Goodwood defeat in Adelaide last week?
That’s the conundrum punters and bookmakers weigh up ahead of the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m) at Eagle Farm on Saturday.
Eagle-eyed punters secured over the odds earlier in the week when Darren Weir announced a change in plans to accommodate a Brisbane stop for Black Heart Bart after originally intending to spell after the Goodwood.
Weir felt the six-year-old was ridden too close last week and attributed that as the reason for his failure to finish off.
UBET marked Black Heart Bart a $3.50 chance after acceptances yesterday, a far cry from the $9 – and longer – some bookmakers offered after the Goodwood last Saturday.
UBET’s Gerard Daffy said Black Heart Bart had been taken out of the Kingsford Smith Cup market at the weekend on the assumption he wouldn’t run.
“He went back into the market at $6 and there’s no doubt he will be our worst result for sure,” Daffy said.
Ladbrokes offered as much as $13 before the news of his surprise appearance came through on Monday.
The handicapper tells the story of the class advantage Black Heart Bart, at his best, has on his rivals under the Cup’s weight-for-age scale.
His official rating of 117 is eight points clear of the next highest rater, Under The Louvre, meaning he would be giving away at least 4kg to every other runner in a handicap.
Second favourite Clearly Innocent would be in receipt of 7.5kg.
Professional analyst Daniel O’Sullivan of BetSmart Racing said Black Heart Bart would be a $2.80 chance based on his best ratings but it was impossible to assess him that highly after his Goodwood run.
“He’s an interesting horse to assess because he has a pattern of taking a clear step forward in his performance figures with the benefit of a first-up run,” O’Sullivan said.
“He’s done that at each of his last three preparations.
“But his first-up run last week was clearly his lowest rating in his last three preparations, beaten 2.6 lengths in a below-average strength Group 1 race.
“This race is more difficult than the Goodwood.”