Shorten in strife

Shock poll predicts Labor will lose Longman by-election

MALCOLM Turnbull is on the verge of a stunning by-election victory in the Queensland seat of Longman this weekend, thanks to One Nation preferences, while the Braddon byelection in Tasmania sits on a knife-edge.

A YouGov Galaxy poll reveals Labor leader Bill Shorten is facing a historic and humiliating loss to the Liberal and National Party in Longman of 51 to 49 per cent, while the race is still touch-and-go between the two parties in Braddon at 50-50 two-party preferred.

And in a revelation which will wound Mr Shorten, Labor would be in a winning position in both marginal seats if front bencher Anthony Albanese was leader, with his personal popularity adding six points to Labor’s primary vote in Longman, taking it to 43 per cent, and an extra four points in Braddon, to 44 per cent.

And, just as Susan Lamb snared Longman for Labor in the 2016 election off the back of preferences from Pauline Hanson, if the Turnbull government picks up the Queensland seat on Saturday, it would be owing to One Nation.

Showing the huge impact Ms Hanson is having on the political scene, One Nation’s primary vote in Longman has doubled from 9 to 18 per cent since the last federal election, according to the Galaxy poll conducted from Tuesday to Thursday last week.

If these results are repeated at voting booths this Saturday, it would be the first time in 100 years a federal government has won a seat at a by-election, delivering Malcolm Turnbull crucial momentum ahead of the looming federal polls.

It would also put Mr Shorten’s leadership firmly in the frame, with rumblings there could be a leadership coup against him if Labor MPs do not believe he can take them to electoral victory.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has declared the contest in Longman will be a battle between him and Mr Shorten as leaders.