US and China hold the key

THE big question, what will really determine where our economy heads over the rest of the year and through 2020 – and thus what will really determine our rates – is what happens to the global economy.

And by global economy we mean the US and China: they are the only two that matter. Europe and Japan just don’t rate; and in any event how they perform all turns on China and the US anyway.

I suggest the prospects are positive. Both the US real economy and Wall St are looking buoyant – especially as President Trump has tweeted the Fed out of hiking US rates and he will do a trade deal with China.