Preference deals will determine Forde king
WHAT is the role of Clive Palmer in a marginal northern Gold Coast seat of Forde which will decide the federal poll? He is a potential kingmaker. Is this his Titanic political turn?
Labor strategists knew the mining magnate would be on the nose in the state’s north, where the collapse of Queensland Nickel put 800 people out of work in Townsville, owing them about $70 million in unpaid entitlements.
But Mr Palmer has strong links on the Glitter Strip – apart from his business base, his family and its investments are concentrated around the lovely Broadwater village of Paradise Point.
His nephew Clive Mensink, who has been in Bulgaria since the refinery collapsed, has a luxury waterfront home on Sovereign Islands. The extended family has more than $18 million worth of property on the Broadwater island.
Mr Palmer was regarded as a saviour among Coast junior soccer when he launched Gold Coast United FC. The ALeague soccer team brought stars and much-needed facilities to struggling suburban clubs but broke the hearts of those youngsters and old heads when it and all the extra gear disappeared in 2012.
Despite this, Labor strategists know they and the LNP as major parties are confronted with what they call the “(expletive) you all” vote.
In Forde the “f-you all” mob – possibly a third of all voters – could give Mr Palmer and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson between 15 and 20 per cent of the overall vote. Neither Labor or the LNP will reach 50 per cent. They need preferences to win.
Talk to enough pre-poll workers from all parties and there remains a consistent theme – the voters arriving know who they are voting for, and because they refuse howto-vote cards it is impossible to pick up on a trend.
“It’s more common where people are bagging him (Mr Palmer) rather than saying good things about him,” a Labor strategist said.
“The opportunity for him is the protest vote. These are people who haven’t worked out who they will vote for yet.”
An experienced booth worker not linked to either of the major parties said the feedback in Forde was Palmer’s United Australia Party was not strong on the pre-poll booths.
“Obviously he has spent a lot of money on advertising,” the booth worker said. “He doesn’t have many people on the booths. Unprompted, people are bringing up Pauline rather than Clive.”
Since UAP and One Nation are both standing candidates, the protest vote will be split.
“It’s a bit like cannabilisation. Where their preferences go, it’s hard to predict. Historically, we know that people who vote for these minority parties don’t follow the how-to-vote card like the party faithful.”
As a guide, the Palmer United Party secured more than 12 per cent of the vote in Forde at the 2013 election. The LNP’s Bert van Manen beat Labor’s star candidate Peter Beattie with 54 per cent of the vote on a two-party preferred basis, after getting a swing of 2.75 per cent.
Given both a Palmer and a Hanson candidate were missing in 2016, Labor, with Logan Hospital senior radiographer Des Hardman, gained a swing of 3.64 per cent. The LNP vote was down 1.91 per cent.
IT’S SO PREVALENT, THAT IT MAY IN FACT BE BACKFIRING ... PEOPLE ARE SO ANGRY ABOUT IT AND SO SICK OF IT. PAUL WILLIAMS ON UAP ADVERTS
Mr van Manen has had a “gentlemen’s agreement” with Mr Hardman. They were at a function six months ago and decided to stick to policy debates rather than get personal. His campaign regimen is community breakfasts, roadside meet and greets along with long hours at pre-poll.
Labor’s tactics appear to be to focus on the undecided voters. Mr Hardman attends prepoll first thing in the morning then spends much of the day doorknocking.
The ALP see the contest as “four against one”, being confronted with the LNP, One Nation, UAP and Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party.
But the ALP can expect preferences from The Greens. Coast environmentalist Sally Spain secured 6.4 per cent of the vote last time.
UAP candidate Paul Creighton, who is based on the Coast and works for the Australian Transit Group, has Mr van Manen second on a published ballot paper and Mr Hardman in third position. “Good and positive feedback, very busy with pre-poll,” he said, in a text yesterday.
One Nation’s Ian Bowron has asked voters to “place a 1 next to One Nation” and advises that “you, and only you,