50-50: CRUCIAL FORDE ON EDGE OF SEAT

THE fight for the northern Gold Coast marginal seat of Forde – a must-win for Labor to secure government – is a cliffhanger and impossible to call.

An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll for the Gold Coast Bulletin reveals the two-party preferred vote is split at 50 per cent each for the LNP and Labor.

“This suggests the LNP have been able to limit the swing in Forde to less than 1 per cent,” a YouGov Galaxy pollster said.

LNP MP Bert van Manen has a margin of 0.6 per cent in the seat, which includes Coomera from north of the Coomera River to Beenleigh and Logan.

YouGov Galaxy pollsters said primary support for Mr van Manen was 42 per cent, slightly above 41 per cent at the 2016 poll.

Labor’s Des Hardman, a senior radiographer at the Logan Hospital, has also improved his vote from last time around – up from 37.6 per cent to 41 per cent.

Five per cent of the 567 voters in Forde who were surveyed remained uncommitted. That indicates that across the seat there are about 6000 uncommitted voters who will most likely determine the result when they enter the booths tomorrow.

The major parties, aware of this, continued with a last-minute blitz yesterday with funding announcements.

But the polling confirms the key player to emerge in the Gold Coast’s biggest political battleground is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

The vote for Clive Palmer’s party in Forde appears to have collapsed. In the 2013 poll, the then Palmer United Party polled 12.45 per cent. One Nation did not stand a candidate.

Neither party contested Forde in 2016.

On this latest poll, Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party is getting 4 per cent of the vote.

This is much lower than other Queensland marginals like the northern Brisbane seat of Dickson (9 per cent); Flynn, which includes Gladstone and west to Emerald (11 per cent); and Herbert (9 per cent) in north Queensland.

One Nation is tracking at 7 per cent in Forde.

Labor Party insiders expect the preferences from One Nation will be much stronger for the ALP than the Coalition.

While the majority of UAP preferences are likely to help Mr van Manen, a leakage of up to 20 per cent of those conservative voters to Labor could be a disaster for the LNP overall result.

The stronger One Nation vote in Forde is not unexpected. The electorate includes Beenleigh and Logan, and battlers could be lodging a protest vote against the major parties.

Some of the results contrast with the polling in three other key Queensland marginal seats.

In the northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, One Nation – with 3 per cent of the vote – is behind UAP (9 per cent). Similarly, in Flynn and Herbert, Ms Hanson’s party trails by 3 to 4 per cent.

Mr Hardman will depend largely on the preferences of the Greens to get across the line.

In Forde, support for the Greens on this polling is 5 per cent, compared to 6.4 per cent in 2016 when they managed to improve their vote by more than 2 per cent.

The polling was conducted exclusively for News Corp on Monday and Tuesday, and sought the opinions of 567 voters in Forde.

A YouGov Galaxy pollster told the Bulletin: “Three of these seats in this poll are currently held by the LNP and one by Labor. If Labor are to form government after this election they would be expected to pick up some of these

THE POLL SUGGESTS THE LNP ARE DIGGING IN IN THE SEATS THEY CURRENTLY HOLD AND COULD WREST BACK HERBERT YOUGOV GALAXY POLLSTER

LNP seats and successfully retain Herbert.

“However, the poll suggests the LNP are digging in in the seats they currently hold and could wrest back Herbert from the Labor Party.

“Over the four electorates a clear pattern emerges. Primary support for the Labor Party is typically no higher than in 2016 when they won just eight seats in Queensland.

“With the preferences of the minor parties at this election likely to be more favourable to the LNP than they were in 2016, it is hard to see how Labor will be able to finish second on the primary vote and overtake the LNP after preferences.

“For this reason, Labor could fall short of picking up a swag of seats in Queensland that could have guaranteed Bill Shorten the keys to the Lodge.”

FOR Gold Coast voters, this federal election has been about as frustrating as motorists stuck in daily traffic on the M1 – nothing is moving and it’s all much of the same.

While Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten have been concentrating on the seats they think hold the key to victory, little thought has been given to the country’s sixth largest urban population, where growth is being recorded across every age group.

Despite concerted efforts by the Bulletin and Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate, neither party has committed the required funding to complete an essential piece of infrastructure for the city – the stage 3A light rail extension.

Labor argues its priority lies with the Brisbane Cross River Rail – of which Gold Coasters will also benefit. But there is no point “fixing’’ congestion at one end, only to exacerbate it at the other.

The light rail extension is essential to the Gold Coast as it continues to grow in size and popularity at rapid rates. It is not a “nice to have’’; it’s vital.

Destination Gold Coast CEO Annaliese Battista put it so eloquently at the start of the election campaign, revealing how stunned she was at how under-invested Federal Government was in this city.

We agree but are not so stunned, unfortunately. With so many blue ribbon seats in the region, it is hard to get either party to roll out the red carpet.

Despite this, the Gold Coast just gets on with the job – as it always does.

Vital to our success is the incredibly important small business sector. The Gold Coast really is the “can do’’ capital, where that entrepreneurial have-a-go spirit shines through. Our small business sector has grown at more than double the rate of the national average, with small to medium businesses making up 90 per cent of the city’s 65,000 businesses.

Scott Morrison and the Coalition Government are best-placed to continue to support growth across this sector. Their budget promise to create 250,000 small businesses over the next five years is welcomed news on the Coast. That, along with an expanded asset write-off scheme and increased access to financial support, will go a long way.

Bill Shorten’s plan to restrict negative gearing and halve the capital gains tax discount is cause for great concern in a city where real estate growth is so important.

Labor has struggled to convey the impact of this policy, and it comes at a time when the housing market across the nation is experiencing great volatility. The Gold Coast is managing to hold its own, but a change in government threatens this.

Labor’s franking credit proposal has also proved unpopular with the nation’s retirees, of which the Gold Coast is well-represented. Labor argues Australia is the only nation around the world still allowing what its calls this “gift’’. But try telling that to the thousands of retirees who have worked hard all their lives – and will now be hit.

There is too much uncertainty around a Bill Shorten-led Labor government. The Coalition must be given another term under a Scott Morrison government to continue to build on a steady economic foundation.