Forde’s vital role in which party rules

Marginal count worth watching

AS few as 6000 voters in the northern Gold Coast seat of Forde could determine the next Prime Minister, according to leading party strategists.

Both Labor and LNP experienced campaigners have backed the Bulletin’s poll which show the major parties, after preferences, each have 50 per cent of the vote.

LNP MP Bert van Manen has a margin of only 0.6 per cent in the electorate north of the Coomera River which Labor must win to secure government.

The exclusive YouGov/ Galaxy poll, undertaken on Monday and Tuesday nights, found 5 per cent of the 567 Forde residents polled were either uncommitted or refused to divulge their planned vote.

According to the Australian Electoral Commission, 107,272 people are eligible to vote in Forde.

Labor insiders who are doorknocking suggest the number of uncommitted voters in the electorate could be slightly higher than 5 per cent.

Their tactic on election eve is to convince those voters to vote one for the ALP rather than preference them second as they choose a protest vote with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation or Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

Forde is seen as “mustwin” by both major parties.

With Labor expected to seize a swag of Victorian seats and the LNP holding strong in Queensland, the votes in super marginal seats such as Forde will determine who forms government.

Gold Coast-based Labor Senator Murray Watt told the Bulletin: “I think what the poll shows is Forde is extremely FORDE is a must-watch seat this election.

Labor has tried and failed here before. It is a bit like the seat of Petrie where they respond well to kitchen table economics and common sense.

There is a lot of struggle street in Forde.

The LNP incumbent, Bert van Manen, has been a strong local performer in working the electorate and he is the kind of no-nonsense candidate who works well in this kind of modestly-heeled seat.

Labor will have a task to take this seat because its

close. The poll backs up what the feeling is on the ground. I think there are still a large number of people undecided.”

Mr van Manen said he was planning a last-minute blitz of the seat to win every vote he could, including doorknocking and meeting voters at prepolling stations.

“It was always going to be tight, just like it is now,” he said. “My message to voters is they have a clear choice between a Scott Morrison Government, lowering taxes while funding the health and education services and infrastructure required for a rapidly growing community.

“This is opposed to the Bill momentum has slowed somewhat across Queensland. One issue is Bill Shorten’s ongoing unpopularity but this has turned around. Another is the clunky start to the campaign.

And then there is Adani, the multi-billion dollar coal mine proposal in Queensland’s Galilee Basin. Hostility against Adani lessens the further you get out of Brisbane and there would be plenty of Adani supporters in Forde who do not like the Greens or their post-material agenda. They want jobs.

On paper, Forde should be a loss for the LNP given how marginal it is and that the tide is going out, but it is far from a certainty.

Shorten government that wishes to increase taxes, increase rents and lower house prices. This will be an economic disaster for Forde, and Australia.”

Labor Forde candidate Des Hardman yesterday visited the Coomera train station in the morning, switched back to the pre-polling booth at Helensvale before returning north to contact residents.

“I think we anticipated it was going to be very close. We’ve kept our shoulder to the wheel, gone as hard as we can,” he said.

One Nation’s Forde candidate Ian Bowron did not respond to Bulletin requests.