Currumbin race the ultimate litmus test
THE Currumbin byelection is the ultimate guide to who governs next in Queensland. The LNP is hoping its brand “Deb Frecklington 2020” ends Annastacia Palaszczuk’s political run.
The LNP campaign in Currumbin so far is being portrayed as a train wreck. However, Labor sees itself as very much behind in this race and strategists are searching for votes.
The margin held by retiring LNP Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey is 3.3 per cent. The Green vote is steady at around 10 per cent, those preferences helping Labor.
“About 1000 votes have to be shifted (for us to win),” a Labor insider said.
The Premier is attempting to reduce voter backlash by staging the poll on the council election day on March 28.
Most by-elections see a swing against the government and anything less than four or five per cent drop in the Labor vote puts pressure on Ms Frecklington’s leadership.
But Currumbin, if a recent City Plan council forum at the Currumbin RSL is any guide, is complex.
It is impossible at this point to determine how key issues like light rail and high rise development will hurt Labor and the LNP.
An elderly Currumbin bloke at the council forum suggested “we should move the airport”, which he said would solve everyone’s problems. The debate began about “where to”.
get the picture? Many in the south just don’t want any progress on their patch at all.
Labor is “looking for places between the blue and the green” – away from the luxury beach high rise owners who vote conservative and the rusted-on environmentalists out west.
“There are some places that are red, plenty of red out there,” the Labor strategist says.
Labor’s candidate Kaylee Campradt has family ties going back generations in the
Currumbin Valley and built a successful P&C team with the local school.
She is smart enough to calm expectations. Her supporters will have been told: “We are the underdog here. It’s been a Liberal/LNP seat for 19 years.”
LNP insiders rate their candidate, Laura Gerber, saying she is young and smart, and if the media focus can move beyond her having once been on the reality show Australia’s Worst Drivers, people will discover a great candidate.
So will the light rail – and opposition to it – determine the result?
Look at the electorate map. The epicentre of protest, at Palm Beach, is not in Currumbin.
Labor will be quick to say no decision has been made on a route south of Burleigh. The LNP will say a solution needs to be found that suits residents, maybe out to Varsity.
The Jann Stuckey factor after her stormy exit? If anyone should pick up votes on this it is Ms Campradt for not speaking out, after the MP’s personal outburst against her in Parliament.
The LNP’s campaign will be instantly recognisable, about crime – and there is a real youth gang problem.
When they talk up traffic congestion, it will resonate with drivers stalled on the M1.
Who is going to win? It may come down to a handful of votes.
Just a thought: has the LNP or Labor thought about moving Gold Coast Airport to Jacobs Well?