Experts: Albo key will be Team Lambie
A LABOR government is the most likely federal election outcome, voting experts say, with new prime minister Anthony Albanese able to get his plans through the Senate with support from the Greens, Nick Xenophon, Jacqui Lambie and her littleknown office manager, Tammy Tyrrell.
These poll gurus also predict Pauline Hanson will retain her upper house seat, but the bids of billionaire Clive Palmer and former Queensland premier Campbell Newman are doomed.
They do not, however, rule out rugby great David Pocock’s chances of outflanking Liberal minister Zed Seselja and scoring one of the ACT’s two Senate spots for the teal independent movement.
Canberra-based psephologist Malcolm Mackerras – whose 2019 Senate prediction was only one seat out – said while Labor would likely hold just 25 Senate seats after the May election, down from 26, Mr Albanese stood to benefit from the Greens growing their numbers from nine to 12.
With Greens support, the ALP would have 37 votes in the 76-seat upper house, leaving it having to twist the arms of the crossbench, which Mr Mackerras anticipated would comprise Mr Xenophon, the South Australian who served in the upper house from 2008 to 2017, along with the Tasmanian duo of Ms Lambie and Ms Tyrrell.
Ms Lambie is among the senators not up for re-election, leaving Ms Tyrrell as lead candidate for the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN).
“Lambie, Tyrrell and Xenophon will have the balance of power,” Mr Mackerras declared. “On anything that the Albanese government is really serious about getting passed, they’ll find ways to twist enough arms.”
Perth-based psephologist William Bowe said centrist senators were “quite likely to have the balance of power”.
Another voting expert, Tasmania-based Kevin Bonham, said the JLN appeared to be well organised and adequately funded, running a tongue-in-cheek campaign that “two heads are better than one”.
“There are scenarios where the two of them could have massive power over the Senate,” Dr Bonham told the Bulletin.
Mr Bowe said: “Labor would rather have Tammy Tyrrell than anyone else who isn’t Labor or Green.
“They would regard that as a win.”
If the JLN wins one of the six senate seats available for Tasmania in the election it would likely come at the expense of Liberal Eric Abetz,
the experts said. None of the poll pundits thought the United Australia Party’s (UAP) Mr Palmer would secure one of Queensland’s six available senate spots.
“I don’t see why Palmer would get elected,” Dr Bonham said.
“I can’t see how he beats One Nation.”
“Pauline Hanson will be re-elected,” Mr Mackerras said.
Mr Bowe said published polling so far was “very bad” for the UAP.
“They are not rising off the canvas no matter how much money they spend,” Mr Bowe said. “Hanson will win.” The psephologists predicted the Coalition would likely lose a seat in Queensland – that currently held by Amanda Stoker.
Still, Queensland was the
Right’s top chance for four seats – three Coalition plus Ms Hanson.
Mr Bowe said Victoria was the Left’s “best shot” chance of winning four seats – three Labor and a Green – followed by Western Australia.
Like Mr Mackerras, Dr Bonham said the Greens’ David Shoebridge would be elected in NSW, possibly costing Labor a third seat.
Of the ACT contest, Dr Bonham said: “There are quite a few Liberal-type voters who will not switch to Labor or the Greens but who might switch to an independent with similar views to the Greens.”
Mr Pocock, the former Wallabies captain, is funded by Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200 movement.
“David Pocock can get lots of everyone’s preferences,” Dr Bonham said.
Mr Mackerras said the Liberals’ Mr Seselja was a 70 per cent likelihood of holding on to his spot; Mr Pocock was a 20 per cent chance of winning.
“If Pocock won that seat it would make Labor’s dealings potentially rather easier,” he said.
Dr Bonham encouraged voters to think carefully about their Senate preferences and to fill out more than the minimum six boxes.
Mr Mackerras said he expected Labor to form government in its own right, with 79 seats.
However, he volunteered he had thought Labor would win in 2019.
“I think this time the opinion polls will be right,” Mr Mackerras said, after being way off last time.