Margin to halve: poll

AN opinion poll shows McPherson MP Karen Andrews is on course for a major drop in her vote in the federal election on May 21.

The poll, conducted by YouGov for News Corp, shows the LNP’s Ms Andrews retaining the seat she has held since 2010, but with her margin halved.

In the 2019 election, Ms Andrews won on a two-party preferred vote of 62.2 per cent to 37.8 per cent against Labor challenger Aaron Santelises.

That gave the Home Affairs Minister a margin of 12.2 per cent – slightly up on her 2016 figure of 11.6.

But the poll released on Wednesday night shows a tighter race, with Ms Andrews’s margin falling to six per cent on a two-party preferred vote of 56-44.

The numbers are similar to those seen in Forde, a seat that encompasses Logan and parts of the northern Gold Coast which has long been considered the most likely electorate in the area to change hands.

The poll shows Ms Andrews’s first preference vote would fall from 48.2 per cent in 2019, to 42 per cent this year.

However, there is no big first preference gain for Labor, which is represented by Carl Ungerer, with its vote rising just two points from 22.8 to 25 per cent.

The big winners would be the Greens, with the poll predicting candidate Scott Turner will lift the first preference result from 11 to 17 per cent.

The YouGov poll showed less dramatic changes in other Gold Coast seats.

Angie Bell is predicted to win with a comfortable 14 per cent margin in Moncrieff and Stuart Robert with 11 per cent in Fadden, while Bert van Manen is predicted to hold on in Forde with a 5 per cent cushion.