How prepared are we to have our say on marriage equality if a fine or cake stall isn't involved?
As a strong supporter of samesex marriage I am not happy about the postal survey. But as a career researcher, I am even more dismayed. It’s not a plebiscite, obviously. It’s not a vote as we understand it in the Australian context (not compulsory, not conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission and no satisfying sausage afterwards). And no self-respecting researcher would call it a survey. I’ve started referring to it as “a thingy”. But let me be clear – it is a vitally important “thingy”.
In fact it is probably more important to take part in this “thingy” because the usual rules around voting and surveys don’t apply. The results will not be weighted to reflect Australian Bureau of Statistics data, as any decent survey would be. And the usual carrot and stick involved in voting is absent. If enough Australians deliver their postal survey in time, we can transform this into something real and meaningful. If almost all of the community gets involved – not just the dedicated supporters for and against – then this “thingy” becomes something else. More than deciding the issue of marriage equality, it will also be an interesting test of our civic engagement. How prepared are we to have our say if a fine or a cake stall is not involved?
And so I was pretty excited to see in the Guardian Essential Poll that 62% of those polled definitely intend to vote and a further 12% will probably vote and 9% have already voted. That’s 83% likely to vote or already voted (the last federal election saw 95% of eligible voters turn up at the ballot box).
Of those likely to vote, the predictable trends are still evident. The older you are the more likely you are to report you will vote. The more likely you are to support marriage equality the more likely you are to report you will vote. Older people are less likely to support marriage equality and more likely to post letters. And yet the AEC saw a surge in young people putting their names on the electoral roll once it was clear the postal survey was going ahead.
It’s a guessing game at this stage whether one demographic tendency will cancel out the other. I’ve been asked my view about what will happen, but to be honest I have no idea because so many elements are unprecedented and unpredictable. If enough postal surveys flow in roughly reflecting the makeup of the population, then the result will be predictable. The yes option will prevail. That would be, in research terms at least, unprecedented.
While our political leaders have constructed the most convoluted process to decide such a straightforward issue, there is the continuing challenge of climate change and energy transition crackling in the background, where simplistic ideas are constantly put forward to solve complex problems. (More coal stations! Create a green army of unemployed youth to plant more trees!) You don’t have to be an expert prognosticator to know that energy prices and energy transition are on the political agenda permanently throughout the government and the nation.
As the Essential Report shows, concerns about the costs of electricity and gas trump housing, medical and food costs (across age groups, too, and even among those who are financially comfortable). Concern about addressing climate change is up 7% since December last year, with 56% saying we are not doing enough.
As so many other polls have shown consistently, the majority of Australians believe climate change is happening and is caused by human activity. Could a concern about the rising costs of utilities be somehow connected to a concern about lack of action on climate change? The qualitative research I’ve conducted over the last decade says yes. Without a long-term approach to energy that is more reliant on investment in renewables and less on old technologies of oil and gas, we will need more power to do the same things we do today and costs will increase.
You don’t need an expensive postal survey to know the public expects a more sophisticated, less partisan approach to energy policy. Forget about bakers forced to fire up the ovens to make cakes for same-sex weddings in the new year. Australians worry about keeping the lights on in the years to come.
• Rebecca Huntley is the director of research at Essential Media