Coalition's support rises two points in first Newspoll of the year
The Morrison government continues to lag behind Labor in the latest Newspoll after three ministers quit before this year’s election.
The ALP is ahead 53% to 47% on a two-party-preferred basis, meaning the government could lose 14 seats on a uniform swing if an election were held now, the poll published in the Australian on Tuesday shows.
The result echoes the latest Guardian Essential poll, which had the Coalition trailing 47-53, with no improvement over the summer break.
But Tuesday’s result was a slight improvement for the government since the last Newspoll in December, which had Labor leading 55% to 45% – equivalent to a 21-seat loss.
The prime minister, Scott Morrison refused to comment directly on the results, preferring to talk up a promise to create more jobs if the Coalition were re-elected.
“I’m announcing today our pledge for 1.25m jobs over the next five years,” Morrison told Nine’s Today on Tuesday. “They are the numbers that matter.”
The Coalition’s primary vote was up two points to 37% while Labor’s was down three points to 38%.
That’s the best primary vote result in a Newspoll for the government since Malcolm Turnbull lost the prime ministership in August.
But Morrison has yet to best Turnbull’s best figures during the 45th parliament, when the Coalition trailed Labor by just 2% in two-party-preferred terms in May.
Morrison continues to lead the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, as preferred prime minister, at 43% to 36%. But voter satisfaction levels with Morrison fell by two points to 40%, while Shorten’s satisfaction rating improved slightly.
The Greens’ primary vote remained unchanged at 9% while One Nation fell one point to 6%.
The Newspoll of 1,634 voters was taken between Thursday and Sunday.
Three ministers – Kelly O’Dwyer, Michael Keenan and Nigel Scullion – will retire from politics at the election due to be held before May.
Morrison has not ruled out further resignations. He told ABC AM it was “offensive” to suggest retirements were motivated by the government’s fortunes, arguing they were “deeply personal decisions about their own families”.
On Tuesday the prime minister began a three-day trip to south-east Queensland with a pledge to oversee the creation of 1.25m jobs over the next five years.
Queensland is shaping up as the key election battleground, with nine Coalition marginals held by 6% or less. Guardian Australia understands that the Coalition’s internal polling has warned of swings of up to 8% in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia.
Morrison he would be “pretty blunt … that the economy will be weaker under Bill Shorten and Labor because they’re going to put $200bn of higher taxes on an economy that is facing some pretty stiff headwinds”.
He said “people have moved on” from the decision to dump Turnbull as leader, claiming “that was all dealt with last year”.
“I had different conversations with Australians down at the Shoalhaven Heads Hotel, they were interested in getting home on time … making sure their jobs were secure, making sure we continue the record investments in hospitals and schools.”