New nuclear technologies to be examined in planning Australia's energy mix
The Morrison government has flagged examining “emerging nuclear technologies” as part of Australia’s energy mix in the future in a new discussion paper kicking off the process of developing its much-vaunted technology investment roadmap.
Facing sustained pressure to adopt a 2050 target of net zero emissions, pressure it is continuing to resist, the government plans instead to develop the roadmap as the cornerstone of the Coalition’s mid-century emissions reduction strategy.
The new framework will identify the government’s investment priorities in emissions-reducing technologies for 2022, 2030 and 2050, although the paper makes clear the government will only countenance “incentivising voluntary emissions reductions on a broad scale” – not schemes that penalise polluters.
The discussion paper to be released on Thursday floats a range of potential technologies for future deployment, including small modular nuclear reactors. It says emerging nuclear technologies “have potential but require R&D and identified deployment pathways”.
While clearly flagging that prospect, the paper also notes that engineering, cost and environmental challenges, “alongside social acceptability of nuclear power in Australia, will be key determinants of any future deployment”.
As well as championing the prospects for hydrogen, the paper also flags the importance of negative emission technologies, including carbon capture and storage, as well as soil carbon and tree planting.
This week the government has signalled its intention to use the existing $2.5bn emissions reduction fund to support CCS projects – a move championed by Australia’s oil and gas industries. The new paper says the geo-sequestration of carbon dioxide “represents a significant opportunity for abatement in export gas” – nominating the Gorgon project as a case in point. Growth in emissions in Australia is largely driven by fugitive emissions from the booming LNG export sector.
The paper is also upbeat about the long-term prospects for gas, both in exports and domestic use, even though gas, unlike renewables, drives growth in emissions. It references a statement from the International Energy Agency that switching from coal to gas can provide “quick wins” for global emissions reductions and has the potential to reduce electricity-sector emissions by 10%.
LNG exports are characterised in the paper as “an important low emissions export opportunity” and “domestically gas will play an important role in balancing renewable energy, ramping up and down to match supply and demand”.
The paper does acknowledge that solar and wind – renewable technologies – are now “projected to be cheaper than new thermal generation over all time horizons to 2050”. But it adds a caveat, contending that “the cost of firming is still a major issue, and will require much more work”.
“For instance, renewables are not yet broadly deployed as a power generation source for large, always-on industrial loads that demand stable power supply”. The paper says storage, which could be a large-scale battery, a dam or “a coal stockpile” or a “gas pipeline” will be critical to maintaining affordability and reliability in any electricity grid.
The paper also points to a “forthcoming” national electric vehicle strategy, which it says will support “consumer choice as new technologies come to market”.
While previous government modelling has assumed electric vehicles will make up between 25% and 50% of new car sales by 2030, the paper contends that “pre-2030 abatement potential is limited by the [slow] turnover of Australia’s light vehicle fleet” and the readiness of technology to support emissions reduction in the heavy vehicle fleet.
The paper identifies short-, medium- and long-term objectives. In the short term, the paper says the government will support investment in the new generation, storage and transmission needed to “balance” record investments in renewables.
The medium-term objective is “building storage and transmission infrastructure and the electrification of industry while scaling our domestic hydrogen industry”, and the longterm goal is building “new exportfacing industries in the global low emissions economy including those leveraging hydrogen and carbon capture and storage”.
The paper notes that private capital will drive the transformation but it advocates for governments to play a “supporting” role. It says governments can take on greater risk than private investors, “and can place direct value on these benefits, including for disadvantaged Australians and those in regional areas”.
“Government support for innovation in the energy sector means the public can benefit from this innovation sooner, through reduced energy costs, a more secure and reliable energy system, faster emissions reduction or new sources of jobs and growth”.
In a statement, the energy minister, Angus Taylor, said the roadmap was about more than reducing emissions. “This is about developing technologies that will support jobs growth,” he said.
“This is about backing new industries that will help our regional communities and local economies to prosper. The alternative is to sign up to long term targets without a clear plan. This approach will penalise energy-intensive industries and reduce economic activity”.