NSW Covid update: cases could peak at 2,000 a day, premier says, as state records 1,281 infections and five deaths

Case numbers in the New South Wales Delta outbreak could peak at 2,000 cases a day, according to modelling released by the state government.

The NSW premier, Gladys Berejiklian, said the state recorded 1,281 new locally acquired Covid cases and five deaths to 8pm on Sunday, while the peak for case numbers could come “in the next week or so”.

“That is what the best modelling tells us at this stage but I do want to qualify that by saying that a number of variables are associated with that modelling,” she said.

The modelling, which is informed by the Burnet Institute, shows authorities anticipate a surge in hospitalisation numbers until at least mid-October, with 2,200 to 3,900 people expected to require hospital admission.

The modelling also estimates peak demand for ICU beds will be around 560 people, with 177 people currently in intensive care in NSW – 67 of whom require ventilation.

Berejiklian presented the modelling and backed NSW Health’s plan to deal with a surge in hospitalisation, and said she was confident in the system’s capacity.

NSW Health’s Susan Pearce said although the stress the hospital system was under was “not normal”, she believed it was well equipped to deal with the outbreak’s peak.

“We have been planning and preparing for this increase in cases since the start of the pandemic last year. This will be an incredibly difficult and challenging time for our system as we work through this.

“What we are experiencing now is not normal for our community, it is not normal for our hospital system, but we will get through this.”

“Anyone who requires ICU care during this period will get it, and it will be continued to be delivered by exceptional staff who are out there working every day ... At least 90% of people with Covid are cared for in the community and that is also a very important reminder.”

The premier maintained that the freedoms promised when the state hits 70% and 80% double-dose vaccination rates will not be changed in light of the modelling showing high case numbers after the state hits those milestones.

“Obviously when we do open up at 70% double dose, anyone who interacts with each other will be completely vaccinated,” she said.

“So that massively reduces the chance of anybody acquiring hospitalisation. What you have in front of you is what we best anticipate will occur, but that is why the Doherty modelling, the plan that the national plan is based on … assumes – which is the case – that higher rates of vaccination prevent people from coming into hospital.”

NSW Health clinician Dr Nhi Nguyen, invited by Berejiklian to discuss the state’s hospitalisation surge plan, said that patients needing to be moved and hospitals entering “crisis” mode was a reflection of the “system working.”

“When you hear stories of patients needing to be diverted elsewhere from an emergency department, that is actually a sign that system is working. The system is working because it is recognition that to provide the best and timely care for those patients is actually not at an ambulance, it may be that it is to divert across the city.”

“… The intensive care community recognises that patient care, the best patient care, occurs at the right place at the right time, considering all other factors from staffing to other sort of factors across the hospital.”

Nguyen said the workforce will continue to be the “biggest challenge”, saying registers have been established to call people working in operating theatres, emergency and coronary care back into the “health response”.

Of the five deaths reported on Monday, one was a man in his 90s from south-east Sydney who contracted the virus at St George Aged Care facility in Bexley, where he was a resident.

The chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, said the man had received both doses of the vaccine, but had “significant underlying conditions”.

Of the new cases reported, 44 came from western NSW, with a majority coming from Dubbo and Burke. A single case was recorded in Wilcannia, which currently has almost 100 infections.