‘It’s a mind game for NSW now’: data reveals extent of Queensland’s edge in tight State of Origins
Mark Geyer may have played his final State of Origin match more than three decades ago but he has never forgotten the feeling. A handful of minutes left on the clock, a razor-thin margin on the scoreboard and the overwhelming pressure that comes with knowing only one team will walk off the field victorious.
“It’s immense,” the former NSW hard man says of “the close ones”, those Origin thrillers hanging in the balance moments before full-time. “No matter what you’re playing, whether it’s Origin, club footy or Test matches, there is a lot more anxiety the closer the score is late in the game.”
The data shows Geyer – and Blues fans – have a particular right to be anxious, with the Maroons all over NSW when it comes to winning tight matches.
Queensland have a success rate of 51% in Origin games decided by seven points or more, but that jumps to 59% in games decided by six points or fewer. With nearly half of the 126 Origin games decided by these small margins, the Maroons’ ability to clinch tight games is a key reason for their dominance.
Since Brad Fittler took hold of the Blues coaching reins in 2018, NSW have outscored Queensland 350 to 238, and yet each team has won eight matches. Six of the Maroons’ eight wins have been by six points or fewer, which doesn’t even include their epic 26-18 triumph in this year’s series opener, when they scored two tries in the final 10 minutes despite playing with only 12 men.
“They should never have won that game,” says Clinton Schifcofske, who kicked the series-winning goal in the Melbourne miracle of 2006 when the Maroons likewise scored two tries in the final 10 minutes to snare a 16-14 victory.
“When [Tom] Flegler got sinbinned, I got up to make a cup of tea because I thought there’s no way we’re going to win now. I didn’t even end up making it – the mug was still sitting on the bench after the game.”
While Paul “Fatty” Vautin will tell you those close wins were due to good old-fashioned Queensland spirit, Schifcofske has a different theory.
“It comes down to the players we pick,” he says. “Go through the whole team and a lot of our players wouldn’t get picked for NSW but they are just hard workers and grinders who do the little things well in the effort areas and that’s what keeps us in the game until the key players take the moment.”
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Schifcofske then turns his focus to the Blues’ winning margins in five of their past six victories – 32, 26, 44, 24 and 32.
“It’s a little bit of flat-track bullies,” he says. “They all want the footy when it’s easy, you can’t get it off them, but when it’s tough and grinding, you wonder if they’re thinking, ‘I don’t want to put my balls on the line here’, whereas the Queensland blokes are thinking, ‘This is when we’re at our best’.”
Of Geyer’s three Origin matches, two played out in what remains the closest series on record: 1991 – three games decided by two points and two victories to Queensland.
“It’s very important when you’re under fatigue to be able to look to your left or right and know you have ultimate faith in those people,” he recalls of Game Two of that series when the Blues’ Michael O’Connor kicked a sideline conversion in torrential rain to claim a 14-12 win.
“Cool heads, composure – everyone keeps saying it’s because Queensland gets Origin more than us but you speak to any ex-player about pulling on the Blues jersey and they’ll tell you it’s one of the proudest days of their life.
“I don’t know if you can pinpoint the close wins Queensland has had to anything in particular. It’s just one of those things.”
So we come to Wednesday night’s game and the high chance there will be a handful of minutes left on the clock and a razor-thin margin on the scoreboard.
Given the history books, what will be going through the minds of the men wearing blue?
“Everyone will give you the flat-bat answer and say, ‘History means nothing’, but it’s a mind game for NSW now,” Schifcofske says.
“You’ve got Joey [Johns] and those blokes banging on about Queensland spirit being a load of shit so it’s almost reverse psychology now. They’re all over the shop, the poor old Blues.
“Subconsciously, you try to block it out but the more you do that, the worse it gets.”
Experts agree that actively trying to ignore the issue could have the opposite effect.
“As soon as you start trying to push things away and avoid certain topics, you are distracted from the job on the field,” says senior performance psychologist David Barracosa, who has provided mental toughness training to various Origin players.
“Both teams have identities based on past results and for Queensland it is that they will do the dirty work and scratch and claw their way to those really close victories. That has become part of the narrative that is really difficult for NSW to ignore, but narratives can change.
“The message we give athletes is they can read into patterns about what has happened before but what happens now is its own standalone event. There is no storyline already written.
“It’s about recognising that each possession, each set of six, is a new opportunity to have an impact and shine.
“We just want them to embrace the moment and have good mental skills in place to stay grounded, centred and bring them back to the job at hand and write a new narrative.”