El­lie to rule at Rand­wick

The Sportsman Midweek - - Randwick Kensington Preview -

NOTE: RACES are as­sessed for a Good 4. (N/R) de­notes no rat­ing.

RACE 1

THIS isn’t a race as such, it’s not even bar­rier trial. It is no more than $50,000 con­tested ex­hi­bi­tion gal­lop. We’re not even guar­an­teed a full field of four. The high­est rated race on the card is Bm72 hence low qual­ity rac­ing bar, per­haps last two, which are good bet­ting races. Three Winx stable­mates ver­sus a John O’Shea up and comer whom I have on top – 3. GAL­WAY GAL (61) to beat the Waller trio. For the record 1. ORCEIN (65), 2. RITMICO (60) then 4. ROMANI GIRL (61).

RACE 2

NOW this is a bit more like it. Each-way bet­ting, lightly-raced horses who can go onto bet­ter thing etc. There are nine in it and most win but I re­ally feel con­fi­dent that one of these four will namely 4. KNIGHT AR­ROW (62), 8. KATIE DID IT (61), 3. HE’S SU­PER LUCKY (62) and/or 6. COLOMBINA (65). You may no­tice that the fi­nal three horses men­tioned above are all last start win­ners. That said, my top pick Knight Ar­row won on de­but then had a few things go against when 4th of 8 in a Jun 23 Satur­day race at Rand­wick. He spelled af­ter that and has had two very typ­i­cal ‘Joe Pride tri­als’. That is to say that he ran 2nd in one of them, 8 of 9 in the other but there were close enough to be ex­actly as im­pres­sive as each other de­spite the fin­ish­ing place (s). Drawn 2 for Josh Parr who rode him to win on de­but and was on for both tri­als. Katie Did It re­ally, re­ally im­pres­sive win­ning at Wy­ong beat­ing Cany­onero et al. She tri­alled like a handy horse be­fore the first run and you’d think she can only be bet­ter off for race day ex­pe­ri­ence. Rac­ing at home this time. 3. HE’S SU­PER LUCKY (62) was $8 to $12 when he won his first time out at Kem­bla Grange over 1000m in 57.24s, by 2.3lens and was very em­phatic and com­pelling all de­part­ments. Re­sumes with­out a trial but from an as­tute yard.

RACE 3

MUCH will rest on whether or not Sava­cool backs up from Satur­day in terms of bet­ting and such. Af­ter all, this is a Bm74 she rates 81 which is 9 points bet­ter than two of her stable­mates Mazaz and Sem­per Fidelis. Chris Waller does look to have a grip on the race, not just with those mares I just men­tioned but also 4. MISS SHANTI (69) who is in some ways a very costly mare but to be fair to her, it’s not like she starts $2.50 every time goes around. She can, and does, pay a small profit most times for each-way pun­ters. That said, I think it’s ‘all out or bowled out’ to­mor­row as far as a bet goes. If she is go­ing to win, it’s now and won’t pay much the place re­gard­less. Fifth run in, right trip, very fit, goes best on good ground it seems – ticks all the boxes. As I said, the re­main­ing Waller trio (un­less it’s shaved down to ‘duo’) look the big threats. As it of­ten the case with the camp, there is no pre­ferred order, you just can’t pre­dict where these stable­mates are go­ing to run on any given day but for the record; 1. SAVA­COOL (81) as run­ner-up then 2.

MAZAZ (72) and 3. SEM­PER FIDELIS (72).

RACE 4

JA­SON Coyle could col­lect a dou­ble to­mor­row and they’ll both be pretty healthy odds. The first leg of the po­ten­tial dou­ble is 2. NICOCHET (68) here and then over to Des­tiny’s Hero in the penul­ti­mate but more on him later. Nicochet is a strik­ing brown horse, rather rem­i­nis­cent of his iron-horse sire, Nic­coni. This fel­low has had the 13 starts for 3-1-4. Both of his runs this cam­paign have been on the Kens­ing­ton track and both are fourth plac­ings – of them ‘run on’ fourths. Nicochet was $14 into $10 last start when a clos­ing 4.3-lens be­hind Sky Boy and 5. GRETZKY (61) who runs here. Sky Boy, you may re­call, bolted in at Rand­wick last Satur­day. Nicochet car­ried 60.5kgs last start and whilst he was fin­ish­ing off pretty quickly, surely he’ll ap­pre­ci­ate the 2kgs less this time cour­tesy of Sam Weather­ley’s claim. It all sets up re­ally well ac­tu­ally for this Nowra Cup placeget­ter. The big dan­ger is the Kris Lees trained 6. WARUNA (64) who was a class above them at Coffs on Oct 2 then came to town, led – worse part of the track – and fought back when looked beaten to run 0.8-lens third at the Farm. That was 1400m, you would think that 1550m around this venue would pose no is­sues. 1. TAHSIN (70) is ‘x00’ but he tri­alled quite well at War­wick Farm last Tues­day. Down in class and is the toprater on the Bench­marks.

RACE 5

4. TABROBANE (66) is fly­ing at the mo­ment but I won­der what bar­rier 1 has done to his chances? His last three runs he has drawn 9, 9 and 10 in 12 horse fields and been able to get to the out­side un­leash his big fin­ish. Like I say, bar­rier 1? Not good on pa­per but the camp has had two days to work out a plan. I am sure as can be that this Bm70 is far, far eas­ier than his last start in a Bm70 here won by a handy horse in Fox Swift. Will just need great ride and a bit of luck. 6. TIME OUT OF MIND (62) is with Clare Cunningham now and was ter­rific first-up at New­cas­tle when 10 of 10 the turn but 5 of at the fin­ish but 3-lens from a very smart win­ner in Fa­le­rina. That race was a 900m Bm64 run in 51.,89s with

33.28s last 600m so Time Out Of Mind’s sec­tion­als would have been huge! One fig­ure that nay con­cern pun­ters is he is 3s 0-0-0 sec­ond-up. 10. MAD FOX (57) has only won one race from 12 starts but has five sec­onds and a third. His bench­mark rat­ing is not a true re­flec­tion of his abil­ity. He is mid­week class – we’ve seen as much since he re­lo­cated to the Waller sta­ble. He has raced well against su­pe­rior horses these. No weight, no tri­als – great bar­rier, great jockey. My own per­sonal is­sue is that I have seen him lose races he should won.

RACE 6

9. DES­TINY’S HERO (66) was last seen fin­ish­ing 7th of 12 in the G2 Queens­land Guineas on Jun 9 but you must re­mem­ber that he was 10th at the 400m and was a mere 3-lens from win­ner Sam­bro, and it was his first run on a Heavy 8. This son of Hel­met has raced twice first-up, one was pass­able de­but, the other a huge run and I mean huge! He came from last at turn and stormed home down the out­side fence to be beaten 1.3-lens by the handy Schu­bert. Ja­son Coyle has given him two of those typ­i­cally quite Coyle tri­als but you know there are ready from this camp when re­quired! So long as he gets out in time – I am on the ex­tremely con­fi­dent side of him win­ning or at very least run­ning a place po­ten­tially quite good odds. Ke­men­tari’s three-quar­ter-brother 5. RE­GENT (70) was un­miss­able last start when third to Chapelco and 3. BRAVISSIMO (71) in a race here where all the ac­tion was up front. For Re­gent to get as close as 2-lens in end

a tremen­dous ef­fort on his part. Third-up now, drawn well enough and James McDon­ald on. 1. CHALMERS (72) came a long way last prep ‘ x21210’. Drawn out and has a sub­stan­tial weight but might only mean that he starts ‘overs’.

RACE 7

TIM Clark has a date with the VRC Derby this week­end aboard race favourite Thinkin’ Big and good luck to TC, he’s one of the

guys in the busi­ness. He’ll be a lot more pop­u­lar again if he can win on 1. EL­LIE’S EN­CORE (69) for Paul Perry to­mor­row. Speak­ing of Perry, this mare is a daugh­ter his Hall of Famer Choisir. El­lie’s En­core has ster­ling record of 12s 4-3-1 and comes off con­sec­u­tive sec­onds at War­wick Farm on Oct 10 Oct 24. She is back­ing up 7-days af­ter the last, no wor­ries in that depart­ment. races quite handy when­ever pos­si­ble hence gate 6 should be a plus. I made her best but be­cause she looks to peak here in the right race and on the score of her hav­ing raced bet­ter horses in the past. 11. SOPHIELLA (63) was ab­so­lutely fly­ing ahead of her first-up run in the Wy­ong C2 on Oct 11. Sadly for her though, she bumped into a very, very nice horse of John O’Shea’s named South­ern Lad. Sophiella is 1 for 1 sec­ond-up and from gate 4. I imag­ine Bjorn Baker won’t have to ex­plain too much to Dundee’s jockey James Mac­Don­ald where he’d like her to be in the run! 3. SEE THE SHOW (69) has drawn 16 of 16, they only run 12, so maybe it’s not all that bad. Still, it’s all good ei­ther. No knock in the world on 4. MEDOVINA (68).

Ja­son Coyle and Kathy O’Hara team up with Des­tiny’s Hero in race six to­mor­row and they look hard to beat.

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