Ellie to rule at Randwick
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. (N/R) denotes no rating.
THIS isn’t a race as such, it’s not even barrier trial. It is no more than $50,000 contested exhibition gallop. We’re not even guaranteed a full field of four. The highest rated race on the card is Bm72 hence low quality racing bar, perhaps last two, which are good betting races. Three Winx stablemates versus a John O’Shea up and comer whom I have on top – 3. GALWAY GAL (61) to beat the Waller trio. For the record 1. ORCEIN (65), 2. RITMICO (60) then 4. ROMANI GIRL (61).
NOW this is a bit more like it. Each-way betting, lightly-raced horses who can go onto better thing etc. There are nine in it and most win but I really feel confident that one of these four will namely 4. KNIGHT ARROW (62), 8. KATIE DID IT (61), 3. HE’S SUPER LUCKY (62) and/or 6. COLOMBINA (65). You may notice that the final three horses mentioned above are all last start winners. That said, my top pick Knight Arrow won on debut then had a few things go against when 4th of 8 in a Jun 23 Saturday race at Randwick. He spelled after that and has had two very typical ‘Joe Pride trials’. That is to say that he ran 2nd in one of them, 8 of 9 in the other but there were close enough to be exactly as impressive as each other despite the finishing place (s). Drawn 2 for Josh Parr who rode him to win on debut and was on for both trials. Katie Did It really, really impressive winning at Wyong beating Canyonero et al. She trialled like a handy horse before the first run and you’d think she can only be better off for race day experience. Racing at home this time. 3. HE’S SUPER LUCKY (62) was $8 to $12 when he won his first time out at Kembla Grange over 1000m in 57.24s, by 2.3lens and was very emphatic and compelling all departments. Resumes without a trial but from an astute yard.
MUCH will rest on whether or not Savacool backs up from Saturday in terms of betting and such. After all, this is a Bm74 she rates 81 which is 9 points better than two of her stablemates Mazaz and Semper Fidelis. Chris Waller does look to have a grip on the race, not just with those mares I just mentioned but also 4. MISS SHANTI (69) who is in some ways a very costly mare but to be fair to her, it’s not like she starts $2.50 every time goes around. She can, and does, pay a small profit most times for each-way punters. That said, I think it’s ‘all out or bowled out’ tomorrow as far as a bet goes. If she is going to win, it’s now and won’t pay much the place regardless. Fifth run in, right trip, very fit, goes best on good ground it seems – ticks all the boxes. As I said, the remaining Waller trio (unless it’s shaved down to ‘duo’) look the big threats. As it often the case with the camp, there is no preferred order, you just can’t predict where these stablemates are going to run on any given day but for the record; 1. SAVACOOL (81) as runner-up then 2.
MAZAZ (72) and 3. SEMPER FIDELIS (72).
JASON Coyle could collect a double tomorrow and they’ll both be pretty healthy odds. The first leg of the potential double is 2. NICOCHET (68) here and then over to Destiny’s Hero in the penultimate but more on him later. Nicochet is a striking brown horse, rather reminiscent of his iron-horse sire, Nicconi. This fellow has had the 13 starts for 3-1-4. Both of his runs this campaign have been on the Kensington track and both are fourth placings – of them ‘run on’ fourths. Nicochet was $14 into $10 last start when a closing 4.3-lens behind Sky Boy and 5. GRETZKY (61) who runs here. Sky Boy, you may recall, bolted in at Randwick last Saturday. Nicochet carried 60.5kgs last start and whilst he was finishing off pretty quickly, surely he’ll appreciate the 2kgs less this time courtesy of Sam Weatherley’s claim. It all sets up really well actually for this Nowra Cup placegetter. The big danger is the Kris Lees trained 6. WARUNA (64) who was a class above them at Coffs on Oct 2 then came to town, led – worse part of the track – and fought back when looked beaten to run 0.8-lens third at the Farm. That was 1400m, you would think that 1550m around this venue would pose no issues. 1. TAHSIN (70) is ‘x00’ but he trialled quite well at Warwick Farm last Tuesday. Down in class and is the toprater on the Benchmarks.
4. TABROBANE (66) is flying at the moment but I wonder what barrier 1 has done to his chances? His last three runs he has drawn 9, 9 and 10 in 12 horse fields and been able to get to the outside unleash his big finish. Like I say, barrier 1? Not good on paper but the camp has had two days to work out a plan. I am sure as can be that this Bm70 is far, far easier than his last start in a Bm70 here won by a handy horse in Fox Swift. Will just need great ride and a bit of luck. 6. TIME OUT OF MIND (62) is with Clare Cunningham now and was terrific first-up at Newcastle when 10 of 10 the turn but 5 of at the finish but 3-lens from a very smart winner in Falerina. That race was a 900m Bm64 run in 51.,89s with
33.28s last 600m so Time Out Of Mind’s sectionals would have been huge! One figure that nay concern punters is he is 3s 0-0-0 second-up. 10. MAD FOX (57) has only won one race from 12 starts but has five seconds and a third. His benchmark rating is not a true reflection of his ability. He is midweek class – we’ve seen as much since he relocated to the Waller stable. He has raced well against superior horses these. No weight, no trials – great barrier, great jockey. My own personal issue is that I have seen him lose races he should won.
9. DESTINY’S HERO (66) was last seen finishing 7th of 12 in the G2 Queensland Guineas on Jun 9 but you must remember that he was 10th at the 400m and was a mere 3-lens from winner Sambro, and it was his first run on a Heavy 8. This son of Helmet has raced twice first-up, one was passable debut, the other a huge run and I mean huge! He came from last at turn and stormed home down the outside fence to be beaten 1.3-lens by the handy Schubert. Jason Coyle has given him two of those typically quite Coyle trials but you know there are ready from this camp when required! So long as he gets out in time – I am on the extremely confident side of him winning or at very least running a place potentially quite good odds. Kementari’s three-quarter-brother 5. REGENT (70) was unmissable last start when third to Chapelco and 3. BRAVISSIMO (71) in a race here where all the action was up front. For Regent to get as close as 2-lens in end
a tremendous effort on his part. Third-up now, drawn well enough and James McDonald on. 1. CHALMERS (72) came a long way last prep ‘ x21210’. Drawn out and has a substantial weight but might only mean that he starts ‘overs’.
TIM Clark has a date with the VRC Derby this weekend aboard race favourite Thinkin’ Big and good luck to TC, he’s one of the
guys in the business. He’ll be a lot more popular again if he can win on 1. ELLIE’S ENCORE (69) for Paul Perry tomorrow. Speaking of Perry, this mare is a daughter his Hall of Famer Choisir. Ellie’s Encore has sterling record of 12s 4-3-1 and comes off consecutive seconds at Warwick Farm on Oct 10 Oct 24. She is backing up 7-days after the last, no worries in that department. races quite handy whenever possible hence gate 6 should be a plus. I made her best but because she looks to peak here in the right race and on the score of her having raced better horses in the past. 11. SOPHIELLA (63) was absolutely flying ahead of her first-up run in the Wyong C2 on Oct 11. Sadly for her though, she bumped into a very, very nice horse of John O’Shea’s named Southern Lad. Sophiella is 1 for 1 second-up and from gate 4. I imagine Bjorn Baker won’t have to explain too much to Dundee’s jockey James MacDonald where he’d like her to be in the run! 3. SEE THE SHOW (69) has drawn 16 of 16, they only run 12, so maybe it’s not all that bad. Still, it’s all good either. No knock in the world on 4. MEDOVINA (68).
Jason Coyle and Kathy O’Hara team up with Destiny’s Hero in race six tomorrow and they look hard to beat.