Debutant’s a Smart pick
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 3. All horses considered starters unless notified by Monday at 1 PM. (N/R) denotes no rating. RACE
5. PROUD TRADITION (N/R) is a Gooree owned and bred gelding, a son of Magic Night placegetter Major Conquest and a grandson dual G3 winner Gamble Me. This Medaglia D’oro 3YO sent out some positive signs on debut when a 2.2-lens 4th of 10 in a 1400m maiden on the Kensington track on Jan 1. You would expect natural improvement on his side and the blinkers go first time. 2. BELLADEEL (N/R) is a Dundeel colt from the Waller camp who is bred to be running mile-2400m easily one day but he lacks nothing for pace and speed and you’d think that he’d be able to take full advantage of barrier 1 tomorrow. Was $2.60 into $2.25 on debut and was swamped late but the SP a direct result of his trials. Chris Waller trains two Jakkalberry 3YO’s in tomorrow, 3. KING OF SEAS (N/R) here and Botti in the last. It’s probable that this horse will need the run be doing his best work late, etc etc, etc but it’s also possible that he runs home over the top of them. He’s been beaten 30-lens in his two trials but he’s way, way better than that. I give him a winning chance myself.
BEEN waiting for 4. SMART DECISION (N/R) ages now. The filly was to have debuted at Wyong a few weeks back but was scratched only because of the extremely wide barrier. Then she was set to race at Kembla on Saturday but the meeting got washed out. I am not worried that she has to debut in town instead of the provincials because was always coming here to city very soon, she’s too good for Kembla and Wyong! Everything she has done up until now has been fantastic. She’s a well bred horse that was presumably raised at Widden (which is headstarts in life) and trained by John O’Shea which another advantage in life. Go well. 7. SAVIGNE (N/R) is the Ocean Park half sister to Kermadec, this one owned in the same interests and also trained by Chris Waller. She was a good thing IMO first start at Newcastle but just got too far back in a race where the leader got a picnic with truffles and free champagne. They ran home in 33.48s, overall (slow) 1.24.97s so what more could Savigne do!? A couple here at odds in 12. NIJINKSA (N/R) who didn’t have much luck last start and 5. DAME MARGOT (N/R) is bred to be anything (Fastnet – Sadler’s Wells mare) and is way better than the debut would have us believe.
7. SEPOY ACHEVA (63) has been scratched twice now in recent times I think from memory but I am just guessing that Chris Waller thought that this might be the best race for her and I am sure she is right because with no disrespect intended, it’s barely midweek standard (minus maybe one or two exceptions), more like provincial grade. If you go along with that, then have to mark Sepoy Acheva on top given that she has strong-ish midweek form and run quite well on a Saturday or two. James McDonald rides the mare and the trial was enough for me to suggest she’s in good nick. 9. LADY ELIZABETH (58) is way, way better than a 58 rater. She has only won 2 from 15 but a lot of that is pattern / luck related. We know when she gets good speed and a clear run at them that she is often the one with the best closing sectionals. I say it all time – Jason Collett is backmarker rider in the land and surely Egyptian Symbol proved that at the Gold Coast! My point is, any worry about barrier 1 disappears when Collett rides. The ironically named 8. LUCKY LOUIE (61) should be a Gimcrack winner but for some bad luck. She would have been worth so much more to the Kelly’s had she won that day but that’s racing I guess. Fats forward to more recent times and the daughter of Pluck is ‘21324’ in her five runs since she switched to Joe Pride. The horses around her, at her last two are quite good – Nicci’s Gold for one. Bear in mind, Lady Elizabeth finished front of her by 0.2-lens at Hawkesbury when they met on Dec. 16.
DAVID Pfieffer is having a good trot at the moment and I imagine that unless I am forgetting one, this is trainer’s most exciting and promising horse – 8.
PROPHET’S THUMB (66) who could end being another I Am Excited or better. This Invincible filly has won twice (fresh both times) and the only unplaced run was her 6 of 8 in the Listed Heritage but you’re a hard marker if you don’t forgive for that one. How she was $1.70 and not $1.28 when resumes at Gosford in anyone’s guess – anyway, she won and won like the good filly is. This isn’t a fait accompli like last start but barrier 2, home track, Corey Brown – tick, tick. boom. Probably the most interesting runner all day is 4. NOVIERO (66). Ex Waterhouse/Bott this stunning son of Pierro is with Matthew Dale and we know his recuperative powers when it comes to horses with issues. We can only assume Noviero’s had a few given those long breaks. Nice trial the other day, quality horse but he may have struck a filly that is Group class? Time will tell. 5. MAMARAIS (68) is big improver form the first-up run at Canterbury on Jan 4. It was a sit and sprint – the winner absolutely utterly dictates and frankly nothing behind had any chance. The 1200m suits he did once run a close 2nd to Sandbar, from memory, he should have beaten him that evening.
GARRY White was the punter’s pal at Wellington on Sunday, he took two out there – both shorties and both won. He does place them well. Interesting to see that White has two of his string in this race at the top the
weights namely 1. AND SO IT GOES (72) and 2. MILITARY
ACADEMY (67). You hear trainers say it all the time that it’s not ideal to race stablemates against each other but when it’s the perfect for each horse, then you have to do it. I hope I don’t look silly and go wrong the way but I had And So It Goes on top of Military Academy. The toppie rates 72 compared to the others 67 which firstly says a bit about And So It Goes bright chances and also that she (the toppie) has superior form to her stablemate at this point. And So It Goes a few gear changes. I will add that she goes well fresh and this is her trip. Regarding the weight,
should have won first-up on the Kensington track with 60.5kgs last campaign. If anything may split the White team at the finish, I feel that it is either longshot 12. VELACANO (54) or 4. ROYAL WITNESS (67) who won first time out for new trainer Joe Pride. How often do we say that!? Lots. Just on Velacano, she is a striking black mare by All American but lots of her damisre Lonhro about her. Her only win in 14 starts was first-up one day at massive odds and I have seen her trial quite well in the past and the fact that she hasn’t trialled before this I see a very, very big positive. She could be blow out on the day.
4. MY SONG (67) was my ‘Best Bet’ on New Year’s Day on the Kensington Track and I feeling pretty chuffed at the 200m, geez he was travelling had been left alone. Two strides later, he’s gaaaaawne. It changed that quickly which is a big, big worry but I like that Glyn Schofield is sticking with him and I also fancy him going to 1400m at WF but only if he can get a cheap run. I am sure is better than Jan 1, goes poorly again tomorrow though, it’s back to the provincials for him. I also tipped 3. CARLUCA (67) on top when he resumes on the Kensington Track Dec. 21. Carluca was $31/$41/$51 back into $41. He was running into quite nicely at stages but his condition gave out a little late and so we have to ignore the 7.4-lens margin because winner bolted in and had a huge break on the field the whole way. take note that Carluca is now 8s 0-0-1 first-up but is 7s 2-1-0 second-up. He has placed 3 from 6 at the t/d and 5 from 10 here home. Five of his 6 wins are at this trip. I freely acknowledge now that went off a run too soon! Has been known to happen. 1. CORMAC (72) is the only horse whose rating begins with a ‘7’ and that has to count for something. Trialling well and he loves the Farm. 9. PLAYARD (63) needed room earlier at Canterbury and he might have been right in the finish photo. If forced to declare a bet, I would be small My Song, small Carluca each-way.
THE aforementioned 9. BOTTI (66) was most people’s horse to follow when he ran 4-lens 3rd Ljungberg who would bolted in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas I reckon had he went up there. Never mind. That was Botti’s first run for Chris Waller taking over from Murray Baker who trained the horse’s half brother Lion Tamer who won the VRC Derby but about 6-lens. From what I gather, Botti is being looked at for the NZ Derby then come back to Sydney for our Blue Riband. If I owned him, I would make sure to put some cash aside to pay for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup nomination fees. Not saying he’s gunna win any of these races but I bet you he makes the field in two or three them! The mile at WF is a lot more suitably than a 1400m on the Kensington against Ljunberg. 3. CYBER INTERVENTION (650 could easily give Joe Pride another last race winner. I reckon he does that more at WF than anywhere else too. Anyway, as for this horse, he was brilliantly ridden by Jason Collet to win at Randwick on Boxing Day. He was going to win that mile Bm70 from the 800m. Collett just lined him up down the middle and pushed button at the right time. The horse did
rest. One word – progressive. Quite a few other chances in the last not least the Albury visitor 13. FOOTMARK (60) who has run some good races when he makes that long trip to Sydney from Albury. Last start winner at home over the mile which is his pet trip.