He has the Ad­van­tage

The Sportsman Special Issue - - Randwick Preview - WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

NOTE: RACES are as­sessed for a Good 4. Nu­mer­ous dual ac­cep­tors across the meet­ing but all horses are con­sid­ered starters un­less no­ti­fied by Satur­day at 6 PM. (N/R) de­notes no rat­ing.

RACE 1

CHRIS Waller has his best chance yet of win­ning the Mel­bourne Cup later to­day with Finche, the son of the mighty Frankel. The stakes are some­what lower here but he can get the day off to a tasty lit­tle start with the tri­fecta (in our or­der) of 4. STARDOME (64), MANGIONE (64) and 2. ORCEIN (65). Stardome is a horse that has a fu­ture as a stayer. He is a beau­ti­ful and typ­i­cal ex­am­ple of his sire, Sav­abeel, and is a three­quar­ter brother to Bris­bane Cup win­ner Flo­ria. The sooner he gets to 1800m the bet­ter frankly. Mangione, as in the mu­si­cian Chuck, is an­other emerg­ing Waller stayer. This fel­low is from the first crop of 2013 Mel­bourne Cup win­ner Fiorente and like Stardome, was a last start win­ner at Can­ter­bury – in his case, 1900m. 2. ORCEIN (65) is a Snitzel who gets his stamina from his dam-sire, Zabeel. Orcein has been a costly horse to fol­low, cer­tainly of late but will have his ad­mir­ers again no doubt.

RACE 2

AN­THONY Cum­mings son, James, brother of Ed­ward, could win the Mel­bourne Cup to­day with Avil­ius. That would be one down, 11 to go to match his grand­fa­ther Bart! Now to things at hand. An­thony and Ed­ward have the well-bred 3. LAZARO (N/R) on de­but here. The colt is by Se­bring out of a mare named Al­zora whom An­thony won a Group 3 and Listed raced with. Lazaro fin­ished 4th of 5 then 5th of 8 in his two tri­als. Mat­ter of opin­ion as to their merit, me, I thought there was some­thing there. 1. NAPOLEON SOLO (N/R) must be get­ting close to a win. The Snow­dens colt was 0.2-len to the handy Adana at War­wick Farm sec­ond-up in the same race that Waller’s 4. ARMAN ZOU (N/R) was clos­ing off nicely in. An in­ter­est­ing horse down the bot­tom is the $700,000 year­ling 10. MANDALONG ONE UP (N/R) who is way bet­ter than her 5s 0-0-0 would have us be­lieve. She should rel­ish the 1400m.

RACE 3

THE afore­men­tioned James Cum­mings has one on de­but here in the shape of 12. HELOISE (N/R). This Lonhro filly is re­lated to Faith­ful Son who was the first of Skeikh Mo­hammed’s 25 Mel­bourne Cup (un­suc­cess­ful) run­ners ahead of to­day’s quest. Heloise has tri­alled five times dat­ing back to Feb 12 and all of them have con­tained merit to vary­ing de­grees. That last one at War­wick Farm was a beauty. Drawn out but I sus­pect she gets back and runs on. Has a light­weight too. Chris Waller loves Zous­tar and why not! He’s got 15. TASK AND PUR­POSE (N/R) re­sum­ing here. I sus­pect she is headed to the Gold Coast for Magic Mil­lions day next year – I could be wrong but the tim­ing for her re­turn would in­di­cate that she is at least be­ing looked at for a trip north. What­ever the case, she is a handy filly and well up to win­ning a race like this. 2. CANYONERO (N/R) is a hand­some son of Pierro out of a Dane­hill mare so he is a well bred colt that’s for sure. The Mark Newn­ham-trained three­year-old has placed at 5 of his 6 starts and 3.2-len 6th to Fu­tooh at the other. He’s al­ways shown tal­ent enough to win, I am a bit sur­prised that he hasn’t al­ready. 5. ROUND OF AP­PLAUSE (N/R) could be a value run­ner. He was good in a deep race on de­but at New­cas­tle and was scratched from a race at Goul­burn on Sun­day saved for this.

RACE 4

NO easy races at Rand­wick on Tues­day but this one is tough. It should be a clear cut case on one of these three wins – namely 4. SHANGANI PA­TROL (62), 2. ILWENDO (66) and/or 3. PLAGIARIST (62) but it’s hard to say which one with any de­gree of con­fi­dence. You would nearly have to give it to Shangani Pa­trol over Ilwendo given that the lat­ter has beaten the for­mer twice in their last two meet­ings. But with that said, Shangani Pa­trol car­ried 53kg both times but goes up to 57kg for this. He does seem to carry weight okay though bear­ing in mind he won by al­most 5-len with 59kg at Can­berra on Oct 5. Ilwendo will just keep com­ing – that seems to be his ‘go’ and he again meets Shangani Pa­trol bet­ter at the weights. Still, he hasn’t yet been able to beat him. As for Plagiarist, he is by Dalakhani out of a Galileo mare and that can only mean one thing – he will stay all day and all night. This is his first time to 2400m and he’s been wait­ing for that since he was born. By the way, there are three greys in the race, Ilwendo, Plagiarist and my fourth pick and blow-out chance, 7. GREY EMINENCE (56) who is a sta­ble­mate of David Payne’s Mel­bourne Cup hope­ful, Ace High.

RACE 5

THERE won’t be too many bet­ter look­ing horses at Rand­wick on Tues­day than 4. THY KING­DOM COME (69) who at times has looked like a gen­uine star but for one rea­son or an­other he hasn’t re­ally de­liv­ered all that much. To be fair, he has only had the 13 starts and is a four-yearold so there is a lot more water to flow un­der the bridge for him. If he can win a race on Mel­bourne Cup at Rand­wick, I am sure his con­nec­tions and trainer John Thomp­son would be heartily pleased. As a long-time fan of the horse, I can vouch for him ‘com­ing back well’. 5. TRAVANCORE (670 was a dual ac­cep­tor and runs here in­stead of a later race. A half-brother to Speith, Travancore has placed third at 2 of his 4 fresh runs. He goes much bet­ter sec­ond up but this be­ing a big day, I sus­pect that trainer Bryce Heys has him ready to per­form to his peak. Note that the son of Sav­abeel s 4s 1-2-0 at the Rand­wick 1400m. Just go­ing to need some luck to wind-up and let down from his 3 bar­rier. 13. VOILIER (60) like­wise was scratched from a later race (he was an emer­gency any­how) to run here. Isn’t it amaz­ing to think that this horse has lost 41 times in 43 starts but has won close to $400,000. A lot of that was banked at the start of his ca­reer ow­ing to plac­ings in the Sil­ver Slip­per, Up And Com­ing and Rose­bud. It’s been a long time be­tween drinks for him but he is rac­ing quite well and quite con­sis­tently of late.

RACE 6

GOOD race this one, it’s the fea­ture race ba­si­cally and has brought to­gether a ter­rific field of sprinters none bet­ter it seems than 1. TAC­TI­CAL AD­VAN­TAGE (100) who is the high­est rated horse in ac­tion at HQ on Tues­day. The Kris Lees-trained son of Black Caviar’s sire, Bel Esprit, was out of this word im­pres­sive win­ning on the Kens­ing­ton Track on Oct 1 then was far, far from dis­graced when 5.3lens 4th to Pier­ata in the Syd­ney Stakes which is the Ever­est con­so­la­tion pretty much. Num­bers read well for this; he’s 6s 3-0-1 at Rand­wick, 6s 3-2-0 at the trip and 1 for 1 at the t/d. Got to carry the 61kg but that’s only 0.5kg more than 2. BOSS LANE (99). That said, Boss Lane is rac­ing very well right now and he loves Rand­wick when it’s firm un­der­foot. Seven of his 9 ca­reer wins are here and 5 of his 9 wins are on good tracks. Boss Lane was a mere 0.2-len away from Tac­ti­cal Ad­van­tage in the Syd­ney Stakes, 4-len be­hind in that Fly­ing on the Kenso so he’s get­ting closer all the time. 3. OX­FORD POET (97) is a re­ally good fresh horse and comes off a lovely trial. Drawn 1 for the very, very in­form Josh Parr. 5. MAR­SU­PIAL (87), the son of the mare Koala Bear, was ex­cel­lent first-up.

RACE 7

JOHN O’Shea trained a re­ally good horse just re­cently named Kuro. 6. SOUTH­ERN LAD (70) is Kuro’s half-brother by the mighty Kiwi Ocean Park. South­ern Lad has had three starts, he won like a cham­pion at Can­ter­bury at his sec­ond one and was spelled. He re­sumed at Wy­ong in a C2 and even though I am a huge fan of his, I couldn’t come at him with 59.5kg from bar­rier 9 of 9 around Wy­ong. A few things panned out nicely for him I con­cede, but he took up the in­vi­ta­tion like good horses do and won well. Bad draw again here but it’s Rand­wick and he’ll have a good tempo to tire a few out up ahead of him. I am sure as night fol­lows day that 1. BLUE TY­COON (750 is go­ing well. He may as ween 100/1 first-up on Ever­est day here on that Heavy 9. He is a much bet­ter horse on firm ground and with the sun beat­ing down on Rand­wick these last few days, it’s be nice and firm un­der foot. He is well placed here ac­tu­ally, it’s a Bm74 and he rates 75 (equal best in the race) but goes around with 2kg off for the tal­ented ap­pren­tice Jean Van Over­meire. Plenty of other chances to reach the dais not least 9. SU­PER STAR BOB (69) who was run­ner-up first-up to a handy one of John O’Shea’s. 4. DE­ITY (74) was a lot dis­ap­point­ing last start but was rac­ing well be­fore that.

RACE 8

12. KATHAIRE (60) is down to run at Kem­bla on Tues­day but drew gate 16. She has bar­rier 13 here but I sus­pect she still makes the trip down from Hawkes­bury. This mare has only man­aged to win 1 from 14 but she has been run­ner-up 6 times and third twice. She’s been get­ting back and run­ning on rather well of late, that 1.7-len 4th on the Kens­ing­ton Track last start to 4. VIN­NIE POWER (68) held plenty of merit. 6. PER­FECT PITCH (68) has two ze­roes next time her name but she was very un­lucky in one of them and the other was in the Group 3 Spring Stakes be­hind Ara­mayo et al. Need­less to say, this is eas­ier and her trial was good at the Farm on Oct 23. Plenty of other chances, chiefly 7. BAL­LET BABY (63) who, on hu­man terms, is Takeover Tar­get’s ne­ice. Been a bit dis­ap­point­ing – I thought she was bet­ter than she has shown – but per­haps this could be her best cam­paign yet. Time will tell. One other im­por­tant note, I am treat­ing 11. SO MAGIC (61) as a scratch­ing. She will surely go to Kem­bla and win on Tues­day. If for some rea­sons he comes to Rand­wick in­stead, all bets are off – she goes on top.

RACE 9

A TOUGH way to end Cup Day, a good old fash­ioned ‘Get Out’ Stakes. Most of us will be guess­ing by now, chasing or rein­vest­ing. Hope­fully the lat­ter! Favourites had that great streak of win­ning the last races a lit­tle while back, I am not even sure what starts favourite here. I have a feel­ing, nor much more than that, that 5. AMANITO (74) might salute. I won’t quickly for­get his barn­storm­ing win on the Kens­ing­ton Track three runs back. Wass pass­bale last start des­oite run­ning 7th of 10. He’ll do me each-way to per­haps beat 18. TUNERO (62) from the Waller yard, James Cum­mings’ 12. WATCH­DOG (67) and the Paul Cave 14. NA­CHO LIBRE (66) who is ‘112’ com­ing into this im­pos­si­bly hard race.

Tac­ti­cal Ad­van­tage.

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