Cash in on Another Dollar
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Good 4. The rail is out 10m from the mile to the winning post so it will be important to see what happens early in regard leaders versus backmarkers.
THIS has to be the best Bm74 ever run, fair dinkum! Ten of the 14 are last start winners, 5 those unbeaten. Included among that quintet is one of the most exciting horses in sport at present — 9. MORE SUNDAYS (63).
This Hayes/Dabernig trained, John Singleton owner/bred colt is by Fastnet Rock out of 8-times G1 winner More Joyous. More Sundays is her second foal, her first is Woman (by Frankel) and is smart herself. More Sundays won brilliantly at Geelong on debut on Aug. 6 then came to Sydney and turned in what a good mate good judge described me as ‘the best trial he has ever seen!’. Holy cow! It was pretty good. Kerrin McEvoy and gate 5 should see him get a lovely run. Note that he lead when he won at Geelong but was back nearer to last in the trial before letting rip over top of them so he has some versatility. I wish I could say that 14. SANGITA (62) was a certainty of running because I am rather confident that she is the exacta horse in the race but as 3rd emergency with no signs of any scratchings, she might miss out. That brings us to 10. SYMI (66), the sister to Catchy, who was brave and determined beating Misteed co in a Canterbury midweeker on debut. Has upside.
5. ABDON (85) is a GB-import from the Waller stable who races in colours of Richard ‘Amelia’s Dream’ Pegum. One quick note on his pedigree, he is by a G1 son of Danehill named Cacique out a mare Kinniaird who won the 3YO fillies G1 over 2000m run on Arc day at Longchamp. Abdon is 13s 2-3-1, his only Australian run to date was an eye-catching 4th at Caulfield in a 1700m Bm84. James McDonald gave him a very, very easy trial at Rosehill on Aug. 20. Betting flucs may assist. Stablemate 2. NAVAL WARFARE (89) was a dual acceptor, he runs here instead of in the last race. The son Born To Sea has apparently been gelded since he ran last of 8 in the Brisbane Cup on Jun. 9. He has had the two trials, one at Sunshine Coast Aug. 14, the other (a nice one) was at WF 10-days later. Seems ‘overs’ at $23 (Thursday morning TAB market). 10. GAMBLESTOWN (76) was my top pick in a race at Canterbury on Wednesday but Joe Pride elected to run here instead. Granted it is a harder race he has much less weight in this race than he had on Wednesday.
UNFORTUNATELY, my two top picks are not likely to get a run here and I was pretty confident about them both running into the medals namely 14. SEEBLUME (66) and 17. RAPTURE MISS (61). Both are emergencies and neither has a jockey notified even though Seeblume actually made the field given the scratching of Saxton Rock. I’ll keep this race brief because if neither of these two mares run, I wouldn’t know where to look, it’s a lottery, but assuming Seeblume was there — she’s the one. The Canberra mare, who started out life with James Cummings then went to Kris Lees, has a huge finish on her. By now we may know if the backmarkers have any chance of winning, if they aren’t then Seeblume is the last horse you want to be on here. Make that the second last, Rapture Miss is a female Bernborough. 4. TABLE MOUNTAIN (66), 12 NOT BOSSY (570 — sadly a backmarker — 2. ATHONIS (68) and of course 5. SAFE LANDING (62) are next best in that order if Seeblume stays home.
I WAS all over 8. THE LORD
MAYOR (80) when he made his Australian debut ar Randwick on Aug. 4 and wasn’t alone, was $9 into $5 on the NOP and I think was $21 in places day before? Whatever case, he was backed for a stack but went awful. No real excuses to my eye but the jockey said he wasn’t suited racing back (and wide) in an on-pacers race. Fair enough I suppose. Either way, he’s trialled again and he went really nicely when J-Mac rode him, he rides on race day. Massive improver! I am not at all confident the ‘dangers’ will run, they being stablemates 2. BIRHAM ROCKS (85) who drawn a very wide gate, much less 1. CARZOFF (89) who is supposed to be in the Wyong Cup on Friday. we just cannot go any further into this race because we (that’s all of us little punters out there) just don’t know what it will be like on race day so forget about Fixed Odds betting.
WITH the greatest respect to one of my favourite horses (Trapeze Artist) who I tipped in the Slipper, Sires and the Champagne (is how much I love him), I am surprised he is $4.60 fav over 1. REDZEL (118) to win the Everest. All things being equal, at this point in time I would have Redzel just ahead of Trapeze Artist and a break to the others. Just saying. And reason I am saying all this is that I really do think he (Redzel) close to a good thing in the Concorde tomorrow. All I needed to see from the son of Snitzel was a good trial and rest assured, his win in that Aug. 20 heat very, very reminiscent of how he was trialling before he won last year’s Everest. Redzel the Concorde too in 2017 running smashing time and winning by a decent margin. I think he can do it again tomorrow but has some very serious competition in 5. INVINCIBLE STAR (103) whose Everest slot holding prospects will be decided in an under a minute at about 2.35pm, give or take, this weekend. She ran 2nd to Merchant Navy in the Coolmore and we know that is world class form now. Her trials have been out of this world impressive — she is greased lightning this mare! Will she go flat out and try to run Redzel off his feet with this rail where it is? Super Too tried it one day and Redzel just ran straight past her over the last 100m. This mare is a bit better performed than Super Too so what a race we are gearing up for. 4. KAEPERNICK (105) will be running on but surely a 56s 1000m with the rail out 10m means nothing will run either “Big Red” or Tulloch Lodge mare down.
IF the rail was in the normal spot, 9. LANCIATO (103) would be $4 second pick here, but 10m out and the extreme outside draw, well, punters/bookies might take a little risk with him and I can see why on paper, it’s going to be in all likelihood a massive win against the pattern if he happens win at all. I am nothing if not loyal to my horses and I have been with Lanciato for a while now — he has come back enormous! I tipped him to win the Missile at $21 and everyone said after the race that Lanciato was run of race. His sectionals were Black Caviar like! Four of his five 200m splits were sub 11s and 32.60s last 600m was the fastest of the lot. Take note that he is 3 for 3 secondup and 1400m going to suit him a good deal more than a 1:08.41s 1200m. Tommy Berry goes on tomorrow, he’ll ride Lanciato like Chautauqua. 11. DIXIE BLOSSOMS (108) is a bonny mare from the Ron Quinton stable. Boy, she has some wonderful numbers; Track — 9s 4-1-2, Dist — 6s 3-2-0, t/d 2 for 2, first-up she is 7s 2-3-0. Trialled super, drawn a peach barrier. Christian Reith has ridden her twice, the last time was her win in Guy Walter first-up. Honest as they come this mare. 1. LE ROMAIN (115) was in another dimension to his rivals first-up and won accordingly. Got a great ride by James McDonald who not surprisingly goes on to 4. PIERATA (109) here having ridden him to win the Missile. The more I look at Pierata’s record, I wonder to myself how I haven’t got him up higher, even on top.
WALLER has seven ‘runners’ here and I have him collecting the trifecta in the (boxed) order of 11. SATONO RASEN (101), 15. UNFORGOTTEN (105) and 4. ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (107). The rail could play havoc with the Waller runners given that so many of his horses go back in their races. The normal pattern the above three is ‘back’ so again, any bias with this rail placement is going to be crucial to their collective chances. The Deep Impact son Satono Rasen has been in Australia for three runs, two of them in G1’s, the other in a G2. He hasn’t been mind blowing by any measure by let’s wipe the slate clean and start again for a second preparation which begins on the right foot — i.e., a nice, easy 3.5-lens 8 of 8 in deep heat at Rosehill on Aug. 20. Oaks winner Unforgotten was close to the run of the race behind Winx in Winx, that a super return from a very, very good mare. Note that she is 4s 1-0-0 first-up but 3s 2w second-up so if she goes better here than she did in the Winx, she’ll be very close at finish. 4. ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (107) is a hundred times better than his two Australian runs, a bit like Satono Rosen in that regard. So, as with our Japanese friend, let us star afresh on Saturday.
8. PRETTY IN PINK (75) equals very, very nice filly! She is trained by John O’Shea for Segenhoe which reminded me of the pair’s Northern Meteor filly Bound For Earth who was $21 when she upset the hot-pot Guelph in the 2013 Furious Stakes. Pretty In Pink is a Sebring filly who ran down and cleared away from the speedy million dollar yearling King on debut at Gosford in a 1000m maiden Anzac Day. The filly went to Scone for a May 12 date with the Listed Woodlands and was unbelievably impressive. You can’t come from behind Invictus Salute and beat her by 2-lesn going away unless you are very, very good. The $10 is a luxury about this filly — she’s trialled super too since! Box 3 and Tye Angland. These other fillies are so even that it is hard to align them in any sort of preference but from a pure trial point of view, I did like what I saw from 5. FUNDAMENTALIST (80) at WF the other day and am personally marking ‘up’ ‘up’ any horses that went around in the Atkins behind The Autumn Sun as this filly did — she ran third. 1. OOHOOD (96) has got to be the first and only maiden in the world to win $1m surely. She’ll win a race one day, it might be here but then again — what is the rail placement going to mean to her? 12. MISS FABULASS (680 boom horse — questions will be asked and answered in this. I am not knocking her but I can’t put her $3.40 up against the $10 for Pretty In Pink and think it’s any value no matter how good she might be.
THIS race (in terms of my own pick) will be depend on where 9. ANOTHER DOLLAR (89) runs. Will it here or will it be in the Mona Lisa at Wyong on Friday? I tipped her in both because I reckon she’s flying and she meets the requirement of my adopted system which is ‘first-up out of an oaks”, in her case it was a close 2nd to Youngstar in the Queensland version. If she runs at Wyong, all of my support switches to 7. BEST OF DAYS (87) who was incredibly unlucky and very impressive at his Australian debut when 3-lens off Kaonic in that 1400m Bm89 here on Aug. 18 specked a bit, $9 into $7. The James Cummings trained horse is 2s 0-1-1 when second-up and he had trialled really well before his Randwick run. 3. SAMBRO (94) won the Hawkesbury Guineas then Queensland in consecutive starts before a spell and has trialled quite well. I can’t imagine this is anywhere close to his Grand Final but you could say the same about Another Dollar I guess.