Impact ready to strike
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a ‘rain affected track’, to what extent it is difficult to know but rain is about! (N/R) denotes no rating. All horses are considered starters unless notified by Thursday 1 PM.
HATS off to 1. ROYAL CELEBRATION (69) for his wonderful first-up run when he covered ground from an outside draw only to be nailed late. The Ron Quintontrained colt has some deep form on his C.V. not least his second to The Autumn Sun here over this same trip. This colt is pretty promising and could win a nice race if he can stretch himself to a mile one day. As for tomorrow, he is bang on target bearing in mind that his win came when second up. Should get a nice run being drawn 4 of 7. Whoever bought 3. YULONG JANUARY (65) as a yearling is a genius. Sure, he is full to SW’er in Justify That but $20,000 pocket money at most yearling sales and certainly one of the cheaper horses that Mr Zhang would have bought. His two wins have been great – so much quality and purpose about them both –
in terms of the Sydney-way, it didn’t hurt this one’s stablemate Dubious who won Breeders’ Plate last Saturday. Drawn 1 – surely he leads? 2. SILENT EXPLORER (66) was an eye catcher when 2-len fifth in the Gem Song/ Royal Celebration race last start. Third-up now and wants 1400m big time. 5. TOUGH LARRY (65) loved up to his name with that debut win. Scratched from WF on Wednesday for this. Good luck to the great man, Ken Callander, whose family are in him in a big way.
HIGHWAY time now and I like the chances of 8. RAPTURE MISS (640) from the Matthew Dale camp – we know his record in Highways is very good. Rapture Miss, who has Tommy Berry riding is a known backmarker with big finish. The daughter of Smart Missile handles all surfaces and comes back for her second Highway tilt having gone back home won (in a dead heat) at Moruya. Her run in the preceding Highway was
beauty, she made up heaps of ground straight and that was 1400m. She dead heated over 1650m and this is 1600m where she has a record of 5s 2-2-1. Go well. Stablemarte 5. DREAM BUILDER (63) is a Lonhro with a rock solid record of 10s 3-12. The horse strikes this race second-up off a come from behind and very impressive win against some obstacles in 1400m race in Canberra. Has won up to 2100m so the mile is perfect for him and he should race quite a bit handier from draw this time. Speaking of Canberra, the Joseph/Jones/ Jones galloper 2. ATHONIS (61) is back at HQ having run third in a Highway over 1400m two starts ago. Races prominently. 14. VERTEX (56) was fantastic at big odds when 3rd in a Rosehill Highway over 1500m last start.
FORMER Kiwi galloper 10. KEEP UP (69) looked home at WF last start in a midweeker before High Bridge got the gap and beat him by 1.5-len. High Bridge was fourth in the Metropolitan last week so it’s no disgrace at all. Keep Up is a horse that gets back and comes late, there’s no jockey in the world you want on a horse like that more than Jason Collett who rode him brilliantly at the Farm. Deserves a win, he’s been beautifully managed by his trainer Clare Cunningham. 1. RAQEEQ (77) was unlucky last start. OMG was he unlucky! He should have won that race, it was horrible seeing him climbing all over their backs over the last bit. James McDonald goes on tomorrow and so expect him to get his opportunity. No one is riding better than J-Mac. On the ‘query side’ of the ledger. Raqeeq has not won on slow going in 8 starts and is 3s 0-0-0 at Randwick but I guess a case could be made that the runs here are pretty solid nonetheless and if it got seriously wet, he might stay at home anyway. 3. TAMARACK (74) was third in the same race as Raqeeq a tragedy beaten in last start. Tamarack is good, solid performer who has placed at both runs around the trip, one of them was a third to High Bridge and Wednesday’s thumping WF winner Scratches as recently as three runs back.
JASON Coyle accepted for the Angst with 7. INSENSATA (85)
– that’s how well she is going, but runs here instead. I truly believe she is ‘going well’ despite the form guide telling us that she is ‘76648’ at her last five runs. Look at the races she was in and bear in mind that is a pronounced backmarker. She very particular mare in the way she needs to be ridden and it just doesn’t lend itself to many wins, especially against mares like Shumookh, Champagne Cuddles, Princess Posh and the handy Godolphin gelding Best of Days. Go back to the Group 3 Toy Show and she was only 1.5-len Egyptian Symbol in a walking race. Point is, this is far, far easier than anything she has been in for a long time and man, how does she get i with 53kg – god bless the benchmark system! Another very well weighted horse in this race is James Cummings’ 9. ETYMOLOGY (85) who has 52.5kg. A big, strong horse like him won’t even feel that when he is letting rip late (with Insensata). The sin if New Approach has only won two from 23 but he placed nive times and three thirds from four first-up runs. Trialled well. 4. MAGIC ALIBI (92) won the Gai Waterhouse at Ipswich, was third in the Sheraco fresh then made up ground when 2.7-len (second last) Group 2 Golden Pendant. Right in this.
JAPANESE-bred, UK raced import 11. FIERCE IMPACT (78) was well backed when a 0.8-len second to 7. TIP TOP (83) in 1400m Bm88 fresh up short, sharp first Australian campaign during which time he ran a close third at WF then was booming winner over 1400m here. As son of Deep Impact he will relish the mile, more so given that he is one for one over the mile. Will be getting home hard again as his pattern. 2. ABDON (85) had a few excuses for his 11th of 13 behind The Lord Mayor in a 2000m race here on Sep 22. He was mile back in the run and had to bump his way out of a hole ran on reasonably well after that. He is back to 1600m but with this stable (Waller), it’s no concern. Waller has four entered here and they are all a chance led by 5. THE AVENGER (79) in the Denise Martin colours. This horse was seventh in the Tip Top/Fierce Impact race and will appreciate getting back up to the 1600m bearing in mind that he finished all over the top of them win at MV start before over the same trip. Looking for a bold run from 8. DROCHAID (82) at each-way odds. Deep race open to many possibilities.
ROMAN Consul Stakes time and this Group 2 has a fabulous honour roll of past winners not least the stallions Fastnet Rock and Exceed And Excel. Recent winners include Zoustar and Exosphere. I like the look of 8. SPIN (79) who has always promised to win a good race. He is a good colt. The Peter and Paul Snowden galloper is back in Sydney after a highly creditable fourth in the Group 2 Danehill up the Flemington straight. Luck hasn’t always been on Spin’s side but we know the talent is there. The widish barrier may also turn out to be a blessing for Spin who likes wind-up and come late. If it’s wet – even better. 1. SANDBAR (88) is one of the toughest three-year-old’s in Sydney and will appreciate what is no doubt a drop in class for him, having run so well the 1400m Group 1 Golden Rose last start. He went across the line 0.5-len behind Graff and only 1.5-len from The Autumn Sun Zousain. Back to 1200m is no problem, he is an on-pacer who battle hardened and has a heart as big as himself. Whatever beats him will most likely win. 3. JONKER (83) by-passed the Golden Rose (being 1400m) after placing in the Run To The Rose for reason that 1200m is much better than 1400m for him at this stage. He is an on-pacer/ leader who will be in it a long way. Never sure what to make of
4. PERFORMER (83).He’s trading off his Breeders’ Plate win but one day might just run over the top of them – or maybe not.
JAMES Cummings won a Group 1 last week (the Epsom) and might chalk up another one this weekend with 4. ARAMAYO (76) the horse to beat in the Spring Champion. This horse is classically bred like few others. His dam is a half-sister to In The Wings and look at the broodmare sires; Shirley Heights, Sea Hawk then 1955 Irish Derby winner, Panaslipper. He was so impressive winning the Spring Stakes over the mile at Newcastle in a race where Greysful Glamour was third and she might win the VRC Oaks. Heck, this horse might win the VRC Derby – but it’s all systems go tomorrow he hasn’t peaked yet. How good is 12. FRANKELY AWESOME (69)? We will find out tomorrow but up to this point, she has looked awesome. A daughter of the unbeaten Frankel and trained by Kris Lees, the Cressfield-owned and bred filly has been leagues above her rivals in her two starts – a Newcastle maiden the a Scone C2. This is a Group 1 against boys but she could be anything. If she places here – wow, if she wins – wow, wow, wow. 2. TARKA (84) is aiming to give David Payne back-to-back VRC Derbys. I thought he was a good thing last start in the Gloaming but went down to 1. THINKIN’ BIG (86). Can’t knock wither of those two horses but it seems to be that Aramayo is a better colt and the filly has the X-factor that neither of those two don’t possess.
BOB Haire, the owner, breeder and original trainer of 5. I AM SERIOUS (99) sent her to Chris Waller’s for one reason and one reason only – to win a stakes race. This is pay-day. Waller has done a huge job with the mare, he’s been unlucky more than once trust me, but best of all he has her ready and able to win. Sure she is back to a mile from a 1900m and 2000m but they were both almighty placings Avilius who might win the Bart Cummings tomorrow and who knows, even be a force in Melbourne Cup. The only thing that has my slightly worried is barrier 1. I can’t see how that a positive for her on a wet track (if it’s gluey) and when we know she needs a good 300m to haul them in. In J-Mac trust! That said, re: the wet, there is a lot of Lunchtime(GB) in her – she is mudlark. 1. DIXIE BLOSSOMS (108) has won the Angst for the last two years and I am prepared to suggest she is going as well, not better, but as well. She should won have the Tramway first-up, no doubt in world the protest should been upheld! She was pinned to the rails up running when sixth in Golden Pendant, I suspect she’ll be one-off the fence from gate 4 this time and be challenging late. One has to admire the Pendant winner 2. SHUMOOKH (105) who was headed by Champagne Cuddles in the Pendant but rose again and claimed a thoroughly deserved Group 2 win. Her form is so deep.
MAGIC Millions co-sale topper ($1.3m on 2017) 14. TCHAIKOVSKY (71) has won back less than $80,000 in his six starts but there is something there. We saw as much when he was third in the Pago Pago then went to Gosford and smashed Wagner in a very deep 1200m maiden on soft 6. track. That was his only win and I emphasise that it came a soft
Peter and Paul Snowden have gone into their trick bag and found some blinkers for the colt and hopefully that will spark him into action and remind of his breeding he should be winning races! Last chance tomorrow for him with me – its win/ place or so long farewell. 1. TOP STRIKER (80) can never be ruled out of any race he contests. He is a great trier, a good, honest onpacer whose record would be even better had he not drawn so many damn wide barriers. He has drawn gate eight tomorrow which is better than he usually gets so now it is a matter of how he carries the 61kgs. 7. DAWN DAWN (75) is a generous talent with a fine record in development and great trial behind her.