Victorem to taste success
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Soft 7 or worse. All horses are considers starters unless notified by Thursday at 1 PM. (N/R) denotes no rating.
THE She Will Reign connection, Portelli, Melham and Darby Bloodstock have a very, very nice colt in 2. DISRUPTOR
(N/R) who looks to me like he has She Will Reign’s ability to handle wet tracks. He has the trial form to win this and almost be the best of the day. ran second Breeders’ Plate winner Dubious at official heats then was a big winner in his next heat and beat himself that last one by hanging but was ploughing late. Grandson of heavy track Slipper winner Sebring out of wet sire Snitzel. Love him! 7.
ZOUSHACK (N/R) beat Disruptor on the heavy 8 in that last trial after having run a great fourth to him the previous heat. If you want one sire’s name in the pedigree on a wet track, it’s this one’s dam-sire Canny Lad. 9. ANAHEED (N/R) has impressed at the trials. She is a lovely, big, strong Fastnet Rock out of Group 1 winner Rostova.
2. MEDITERRANEAN (N/R) should really be called Mediterraining given his Rough Habit like ability on wet tracks. Listen to this – he is 2s 1-1-0 on heavy yet 9s 0-0-0 good. Those two heavy runs include the best win at Canterbury I can remember and a 0.2-len second (heavy 10) in the Rosebud. He’s 100/1 on good, big chance on slow, just about wins if it’s heavy 9 or 10. The Danny Williams-trained
6. MY BLUE JEANS (N/R) is well equipped on the slop and peaking now fourth-up off couple of reasonable runs in Highways at her last two. Drawn 15 but Collett is a master of finding fast lanes, the bloke is the best track walker in business. 18.
THINK LIKE A FOX (N/R) is another of the Danny Williams runners here. She is a lightlyraced mare who has placed on a soft 5, never seen anything like this but she is not without claims. 13. THE FRICK (N/R) is first-up on a testing track in a decent Highway but he is bred to handle, and is proven on, wet tracks. Has no weight to speak of and that is always an advantage in these conditions.
IT COULD be a huge day for Bert Vieira and Gerald Ryan tomorrow with Trapeze Artist going around in the Everest. They have 7. I LIKE IT EASY (65) resuming here off some puzzling trials, that is to say, they are not the super impressive burst through line head on the chest that normally attracts eye. But the last one was better than it looked, even though she was being reeled in big time after setting up a huge lead. I am sure that was her just idling down not stopping. Her form is rock solid, notably the debut second to Graff at Rosehill in a midweeker back on Apr 2. Hasn’t seen anything other than good but it by Pierro (muddie) out of a General Nediym mare.
1. CRISTOBAL (73) has 59kg which is 6kg more than I Like It Easy. I am sure Cristobal is a better filly and her record shows that but 6kg on this sort of track is quite substantial. In Cristobal’s favour though, she has won of soft beating guess who? Miss Fabulass. 9. EVALINA (60) is a Kris Lees-trained filly who looks a lot like dam-sire Lonhro and was extremely convincing when she won at Wyong in a 1200m maiden last start. Much harder here but is progressive.
QUITE keen on Tom Melbourne and Alward’s sibling and stablemate 12. ARAAJA (86) here. One other pedigree note, her dam is a half to Fiorente so she is worth fortune at stud. The Chris Waller trained chestnut
first-up from not a bad first Australian campaign where she ended up placing in the 2400m Winter Cup. She has won at the trip and goes well enough on slow/heavy to get a tick. She has been running through the line in her two 900m trials and
a featherweight of 52kg. Well worth a look each-way. 14. FIERCE IMPACT (76)
is another horse weighted on 52kg. This Japanese -bred and GB -raced import should probably almost be two for two first prep in Australia but even if you dispute that, you would have to agree that he was super impressive when won here at his second run. He resumed with a most encouraging 2nd to Tip Top over 1400m and is 2s 1-1-0 second-up. Is one for one on slow. 10. GOODFELLA (90) a smashing wet tracker being for one on both slow and heavy. The Bjorn Baker trained galloper is back in class from his 15th of 20 the Epsom when beaten 6.2-len by Hartnell. Has a lovely set numbers to be competitive. 6. SONS OF JOHN (96) is a player.
JENNY Graham can pair 5. VICTOREM (92) and 12. AWESOME PLUCK (93) ran one-two in a Country Championship Qualifier at Port Mac and I think they can run one-two here in the inaugural Kosciuszko. Victorem was incredibly dominant when he won the Country Championship Final in the autumn thanks in no small part to Ben Looker who is to him what Bowman is to Winx. He is at one with this horse. Victorem is 7s 5-1-0 overall and one of those wins was on a heavy 10 and he won by a minute. Awesome Pluck likewise has massive win on a heavy 9 on his C.V and fair dinkum you would not see a better trial win than 8.2-len in heat after the races at Port the other day. He is pretty raw and does a few things wrong but he is machine. 1. THE MONSTAR (104) is the class horse in the race and could just about have been a reserve for the Everest such is his form. I mean, he did run 3rd to Pierata and Kementari in the Missile then was 4-lens off Redzel in the Concorde and 2-len off Ball of Muscle in The Shorts. Loves wet as much as anything in this race and more than most.
THE Sydney Stakes is the Everest consolation. Last year it was won by In Her Time, she and the runner-up Impending both went faster than Redzel did when he won the Everest. In her Time may yet win the second Everest. This field is now worse than last year – it’s an absolute cracker. That said, the stars have aligned for 15. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL
(105). This Bjorn Baker-trained mare is 6s 4w fresh and is at her best on wet track. Baker has a habit of timing horses for big races and I know that this is a target race for the daughter of 8-times Group 1 placed Our Egyptian Raine. He has ticked the jockey box – Ryan Moore! Wow. Trials have been as good as ever. There are wet trackers and then there is 3. JUNGLE
EDGE (108). Holy smokes look at his record on good and wet and as that little meerkat says ‘compare the air’. No wins from 21 on good, seven 14
heavy, from 21 on soft. Has 10 placings combined on the slow/heavy. Drawn 2 so he will be nailed to the rails, I am just hoping my mare storms down the middle and beats him. 13.
KEMONO (100) is a fascinating runner. The Japanese mare from the Weir camp has fabulous credentials. Big shout out to 9. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE (99) and 8. BURNING PASSION (100).
THIS is it – Everest time. What a build-up. The last time I looked it was $7 for four favourites in a 12 horse race where you just can’t say they don’t all have a chance and yes I am including the reserve, Badajoz in that. If it was dry – I was Trapeze to beat Redzel and the rest can fight out for third but with the state of play as it currently is, I went for Chautauqua. Just kidding. I like
10. SHOALS (114) and her a fair but too now. Seems a good draw (2), she loves the wet, she loves Randwick, she loves 1200m. The run in the Premiere was as good as winner (Santa Ana Lane) and runner-up (In Her Time) she is just as deadly, if not more so when second-up. Just so long as she doesn’t get boxed in ‘third fence’, I think she’ll be the finish. 5.
VEGA MAGIC (115) has been to the t/d once and that was his luckless 2nd in the Everest last year. It was a massive run on part. He is top-notch (they all are) and comes here with the big gear change – it’s a huge gear change in fact, those blinkers going on. Is he better on dry than wet? To be honest I don’t know but is hardly what you call a duffer. Can’t leave 1.
REDZEL (118) out of the medals. He is superstar sprinter who drew what seems like a positive draw for him in barrier. Surely he leads here and he has superb heavy track figures. I just wonder that last little bit if it’s super and he’s been pressured. If he gets a soft run, he’ll be sweet as though. My roughie is the three-year-old 12.
GRAFF (94). I am working on The Autumn Sun being the best three-year-old in ages and it took him to beat Graff Golden Rose.
11. DIXIE BLOSSOMS (108) is crying out for 2000m even though it will her first time to the ten furlongs tomorrow against some pretty respectable horses. She should have won the Tramway on protest, was pinned up on the rails but closing off in the Golden Pendant then showed in Angst that she wants more ground now as an older mare. Four of her six career wins are here at home and she is 2s 1-0-1 on heavy. Can maybe travel a wee-bit closer now hopefully still finish off with that turn of foot she is known for. 12. EGG
TART (108) has the conditions to suit being three for three on heavy. She run 3rd at her last two runs, one to Winx, the other to my Caulfield and Melbourne Cup horse Ace High. That last run was on a good 3 bearing in mind she is three from 15 on top of the ground but as I say, she’s unbeaten in the slop. 4. MOSS ‘N’ DALE (106) is a Peter Gelagotis-trained gelding who won his last at MV then SA, the last one was the Tokyo City Cup in very emphatic order. This guy is for one at HQ and his wet track ability is reflected in his record of 5s 3-2-0. I am sure 1. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (114) will be ridden differently tomorrow than what he was in the Hill Stakes. He could have a hand in the finish if thing go his way.
CHRIS Waller has the two
aces here in 5. ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (106) and 1. PATRICK ERIN (106). One Foot In Heaven is fourth-up now at 2600m coming off two runs 2000m in the Kingston Town (to Avillius) and Ace High in the Hill Stakes. He is up to 2600m now but that no worry with this trainer (obviously) and bear in mind four of his six wins are at the 2400m. He is racing like a horse who wants this trip too. The Irish-bred Fastnet Rock son of three-times Group 1 winning European Champion Mare Pride is 9s 4-1-2 on slow so he has to get a tick heavy without really knowing first, if will handle it, or if indeed the track will be heavy. Tommy Berry sticks. Patrick Erin was terrific in the Metrop aided by a wonderful ride by Corey Brown retains
as you would expect. He goes up from 51kg to 59.5kg but he carried 59kg when he ran well in the Wellington Cup over two miles. Dyed in the wool stayer.
RED CARDINAL (105) is a Darren 2. Weir-trained who peaks on the day like all of Weir’s horses can and do. Untested in wet ground but he is by Montjeu so you’d think ‘yes’. Up from 2000m to 2600m two time 3200m winner.
GET Out Stakes to end Everest day – that is, a race with a host of chances. Those of you/us who fancy trial watching will have three horses to back tomorrow; Disruptor, Egyptian Symbol and
8. BEACON (74). This son of Lonhro has been superb in his two heats – one of them was a 3rd to his stablemate Roosevelt who pumped his rivals to win the last at WF on Wednesday. Beacon is 2s 1w fresh and whilst he has never seen it wet, Lonhro and Fastnet Rock (mare) is a compelling mix. Drawn 2 for ‘The Gun’. The danger the stablemate 2. REVENIRE (78) who is also first-up and has likewise trialled extremely well. He proven on slow heavy and is 3s 2-1-0 fresh. 5. BROOK
MAGIC (79) has some wonderful numbers as well for a 1000m race first-up on rain soaked turf. 4. BLUE TYCOON (76) is a watch, His trial was good the other day. Think he is a top of the ground horse maybe. 9. FANNING (74) is best of the rest at odds.