Savvy mare is too good
2. AL PASSEM gets his chance here. Beaten narrowly by Cliff’s Edge and Sircconi at Caulfield
then did too much work early no surprise to see him drop out in the Toorak. Sat on speed and boxed on well in the Sale Cup last start. Down grade here maps to probably sit outside Manuel and then prove too strong late. Has a big weight but last time he was over this course and distance won with 58.5kg in albeit slightly weaker grade. 3. MANUEL is the obvious threat. Going very well at the moment and beaten by a smart one in Fifty Stars here on Cup day. Likes to do his own thing front and from the inside draw should hold lead. Drops 2.5kg on his Tuesday run and ear muffs come on. Looking for an improved showing from
1. LOYALTY MAN. He wasn’t disgraced behind Sircconi at Caulfield three weeks ago. He’ll get a soft run in behind the pace and will be finishing off strongly.
7. ESHTIRAAK won a weaker race at Bendigo last time in easy style and is up to this.
Banking on the track surface to continue to improve and be in the Good 4 range and, if that’s
case, reckon 7. DANON ROMAN can turn the tables on 5. LUCKY FOR ALL. They clashed at Caulfield on Oct 17 and Lucky For All was able to stick his neck out on the line win narrowly. Granted Danon Roman got all the favours with a lovely run but think that effort will have cherry ripe tomorrow. Drawn to get the same run in transit here and he gets a 2.5kg pull in the weights over Lucky For All this time. Can avenge the Caulfield loss. Obviously is the main threat. He had to track wider on the turn and reckon he looked beaten 200m but kept coming to win strongly. He’s also right at his top now and this big track will suit him. 8. PLEASURING chimed in at the top of the straight as if she was going to win easily but only battled in the run home behind Nettoyer at
Valley. Better placed at this circuit. 11. TOP PROSPECT is an each-way hope. Liked the way he got home hard in Horsham Cup last start.
1. LONG LEAF finds the easiest race he has contested for some time and it may be enough to see him break through. Don’t forget he was one of the best closers in the Golden Slipper, ran 4th in
G1 ATC Sires Produce and has had two G3 placings since resuming. His ruin in the G1 Coolmore Stud behind Sunlight last Saturday was okay. He clocked the second best 400-200m split of race and held his ground in run home. Like the fact he’s stepping out to 1400m here. Know he has a big weight and the outside draw but he’ll be given plenty of time to find his feet and then unleash in the straight. 4. YULONG JANUARY will make his own luck on speed and was very good at Caulfield three weeks ago when leading
just run down by Ranier (since won again). Should enjoy a similar here and will take running down. 6. RINGERDINGDING was an eye-catcher when he stormed home over the final stages for third to Charge at Moonee Valley on a day when it was hard to make ground. His closing sectionals were only fair compared other races on the day but they go hard early on. This big track looks ideal for him. Also expecting a better run from 9. WAGNER on this track. He was okay behind Charge at the Valley when he didn’t look completely at home on the surface.
Back to this big track will suit 7. MR SNEAKY, who has a win and two placings from three tries over this course and distance. Great effort in the Rupert Clarke when storming home late and clocked best 400-200 split all day. Not suited at Caulfield last start in an on-pace race. Looks to be genuine speed here and he’ll take a lot of holding out. Same applies for 1. WIDGEE TURF. Tried hard behind the smart Iconoclasm at Moonee Valley in his first run for eight weeks. Better for the outing and he also goes well here, notching a win and two placings from four tries at this track and trip. Drawn to get all the favours in the back of field just needs luck in straight. 3. DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR almost stole the Rupert Clarke at Caulfield two runs back and then compounded in the Toorak after sitting near the front on a hot pace. Better back at 1400m and he goes well here. 4. DREAMFORCE fought on well at Caulfield behind Sircconi and rates a chance here.
Like one at odds here in 13. SULLY. Thought he was very good sitting on speed and fighting on gamely behind Ventura Storm in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. It was a good, tough performance. Three starts back he was the eye-catcher behind Furrion, Best Of Days and Runaway at Caulfield and that form has turned out to be pretty strong. VRC Derby placegetter here last spring. Think he may be ridden a bit more conservatively here and return to Flemington in ideal. He’ll give you a great sight at the big odds. 1. LIBRAN has his share of weight but he’s drawn well to get the soft run in midfield. His MV Cup was also excellent and he’s ready to win. 11. MIDTERM was brave in the G1 Metrop at Randwick and he did well behind Runaway
Geelong Cup. He’ll probably roll forward here to sit on speed and he’s rock hard fit. 7. JAAMEH likes this course and distance range and is holding his form well.
If 2. SAVVY COUP can get any sort of luck finding a slot from her wide draw here, then she’ll prove very hard to beat. Bolted in with a G1 at Hastings two runs back and then outclassed
the Cox Plate but still not disgraced. She has the big weight from the outside draw but there seems to be some pace here and she may able to work across into a nice midfield spot. Things just have go her way a little and she’ll test these. 11. TEMPLE OF BEL is eligible for weaker races but she continues to impress with the style of her finishing bursts and she’s been looking for this trip at this big track. She was again good behind Shillelagh last Saturday. Big threat. 1. ALOISIA deserves another chance. She was okay behind Shillelagh last week and may well be looking for the 2000m now. 6. ECKSTEIN reserves her best races this circuit and although she’s a query at the trip, her class will carry her a long way.
1. REDZEL will win. Won this race last year and is also a dual winner of The Everest. He’s effective on all track surfaces, has great gate speed to place himself pace, likes the straight course and this is probably his pet distance. Trialled superbly at Randwick recently clocking fast closing sectionals under a stranglehold. Drawn perfectly to sit where he wants and it will take a mighty performance run him down. 2. BRAVE SMASH was only beaten a lip in the Newmarket down the straight here in the autumn (beat home Merchant Navy) and bounced back to his best with a stylish win in the Manikato at the Valley. He’ll be storming home late. Likewise 3. SANTA ANA LANE. Thought his run in The Everest in unsuitable conditions was good. Nice effort a recent jumpout down the straight here and will be in firing line. Watch for 4. REDKIRK WARRIOR to run a big race. Reports suggest he has been working the place down at home and has also done well the jump outs. He has a great first-up record and won three of four over this track and trip, two them in Newmarkets.
I think the Derby winner 9. EXTRA BRUT can win again. Superb staying performance to win the Derby and he’s probably even better at this distance range. He’ll settle back on what seems to be a genuine tempo and with his light weight he’ll be finishing hard. Worth the gamble. 3. BLAIR HOUSE was only just nutted by Benbatl in Caulfield Stakes and that horse was then chased home Winx in the Cox Plate. Drawn to get run of the race and is obviously horse to beat. 7. LATROBE is all class, as evidenced by his Irish Derby win and he chased home well in the Irish St Leger. Bypassed Cup for this and he’ll be finish. 1. IT’S SOMEWHAT may well be ridden more forward here and could improve sharply.
I admit to being a little concerned that 11. ORDER OF COMMAND has drawn the inside gate here as not sure if it will be the right part of the track. Hoping they may gravitate to the centre and if that’s case, he’ll give it a big shot. Not raced since being beaten a lip by the smart Brave Song in Listed grade down the straight here in July. He has had a recent Crabourne trial, was a first-up winner last campaign and also boasts a solid second to Nature Strip down the straight here. Big chance. Sydneysider 4. REVENIRE has drawn to come down the grandstand side. Has a big weight but ready win after two solid efforts at Randwick. 18. I DID IT AGAIN is a chance if he gets a run. Holding his form well and also will come down grandstand rail. Not far off Trekking in Listed grade at Caulfield three runs back. 9. EURACK is unbeaten in four starts and suited at this distance. Can’t be left out.
Savvy Coup. Pic: NZ Racing Desk