He’ll be Difficult to beat
NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Soft 5. All horses considered starters unless notified by Thursday at 1 PM. (N/R) denotes no rating.
The well named 3. DETERGE
(N/R) is a James Cummingstrained son of Cleanse who won her only two starts. This colt is bred on the same cross as stakeswinner Resin and three other stakesplaced horses, Marble included. It is also the reverse cross that delivered Bounding and Encryption. Deterge debuts at 1200m off only one trial and it was very good – he was a halflength second in his 900m heat at Rosehill on Dec 4. One would imagine he has done enough to run a strong 1200m despite one trial. 2. AEECEE VINCO (N/R) is on the seven days back-up in Inglis Nursery. Mark Newnham points out that he had the toughest run in the $500,000 feature (from the wide draw) but refused to surrender beaten three lengths by some potentially nice two-year-olds. Has drawn out again but one long run to the one turn so won’t be nearly as costly to him as the 12 of 13 was at Randwick last Saturday. 7. GIRLS GET READY (N/R)
3rd to Aeecee Vinco at Canberra when they both debuted then went Canterbury and was an impressive winner. Has the talent.
5. SOSTENIDO (63) was one of my bests when he raced in a Highway at Rosehill last start when $13. He was a mile off the leader in last spot up until turn but saved ground closer in and ended up finishing fourth beaten three lengths. It was a massive run by the Windsor Park Stud-bred gelding. That race was 1400m, this is 1500m and whilst we don’t have the same long straight here at Warwick Farm, get an extra 100m to wind up. Lucas Cranach son 1. HEMMERLE (66) would have lost no admirers, in fact, would have picked up some, with his first-up third in the same Highway that Sostenido ran in at Rosehill. That was Hemmerle’s first-up run and without a trial so he is only going to be better for the outing. Bear in mind that us one for one second-up and his only other Highway run prior to Dec 8 was a second. He was also beaten a length and three-quarters one day by Lisdoonvarna in Bm77 at Rosehill which is great form for a Highway. 2. MOOBI (65) has won his last two at Scone by margins of four lengths and two lengths over 1400m the mile respectively. There is no better time for him to try his luck in a Highway than off two booming wins like those. Drawn four and has Greg Ryan coming to town to ride him.
BEST bet time – 5. DIFFICULT
TO GET (75). Sometimes numbers say it better than words can and that is surely the case with this Wyong-trained mare. She is one for one at the track and distance, 8s 4-3-1 1000m, 6s 1-3-1 fresh and handles good and heavy both. On top of that barrier one is very significant to her chances given that she has great pace and you would think if they want to hold the fence, the opportunity is there or she can sit third and hope gap comes in the straight. Leave it to Corey Brown. One thing we can say for sure is that she is flying. Her two trials wins have been as good as I can remember ever seeing her and that’s from a horse that usually trials like a bomb. 7. HEART CONQUERED
(72) brings together Tommy Berry and Team Hawkes. The three-year-old gelding is a last start track/distance winner on a heavy 8 beating 3. SIKHING
GLORY (74) and subsequent winner Deprive in what looks like a deep form race. Led that day and has drawn three this time. 1. REVENIRE (77) is one for one at the venue and 4s 2-2-0 at the 1000m. The James Cummings-trained gelding was only 3-lengths off them in a 1200m race at Rosehill on Dec 1 but let’s judge him the last time he raced 1000m and that was a second to Single Bullet at Randwick. The time before he stablemate Esperance also at headquarters so
is at his very best at the trip.
GOING to chance one at big odds now in 2. THE GETAWAY (82).
Having watched a million Warwick Farm middle distance races at the midweeks, it’s amazing how many times favourites get rolled and roughies win. Hopefully that goes for a Saturday too given The Getaway has to turn around his ‘x00’ into a ‘1’ but honestly, the two zeroes have not been terrible. He was 1500m first-up and $31 to $101 and wasn’t disgraceful. Then last start he was $151 when 10th of 12 to Tip Top in a 1600m race at Randwick last Saturday when it was hard to make ground that stage due a big downpour just prior the race. He is 3s 1-2-0 and is a very effective back-up horse. Very. 5. VAUCLUSE BAY
(81) is liable to peak now thirdup at a trip that two of his four career wins have been at. He, like The Getaway, was in the Tip Top race last weekend finishing on quite well to run four length sixth of the dozen. Waller is a genius with these back-up horses remember. Waller is also
first-up’ers over a trip and it’s clear to me that he might have 6. FOLLOW SUIT
(79) ready to run a race given that the son of Show A Heart loves Warwick Farm – 4s 3-1-0 and is 4s 1-2-0 around the trip.
BERRY and Team Hawkes for me here with 5. INTUERI (73) who caught the eye with his first-up 6th behind Mapmaker in the 1300m Bm88 at Rosehill on Dec 1. The son of Dream Ahead was pretty safe around the $16 that day and he probably ran up to his specking beaten three lengths certainly not losing much ground in the straight either. The chestnut has raced quite well at Farm in the past and this is very much his trip – or least close to it. Looks a solid each-way chance if odds allow. Muswellbrook visitor 3.
DALMATIA PRINCE (77) has each-way and place claims at the big odds. He did nothing firstup but the last time he raced over mile, was four and a half lengths behind Avillius in Bm91 at Randwick. Drawn well and has won seven from 32. Gosford Guineas runner-up 6.
ISLAND MISSILE (71) is thirdup now and re-visiting Warwick Farm where he is one for one. The Triple Crown/Snowden Racing galloper looked a bit of chance last start but may have just peaked on the run somewhat but still only two lengths from Reflectivity that day over 1300m. This is his first try at the mile but everything in his pattern suggests it will be to liking. 1. ASTORIA (79) is up 2kg on his last start three-quarter length fourth in that Reflectivity race. Go back one run and he was to last weekend’s Villiers hero Sky Boy. Astoria is one for one at Warwick Farm and is 3s 1-0-1 the mile.
2. SWEET VICTORY (75) finished last of 10 first-up but pay more respect to the margin than the finishing position. She was 10 of 10 whole way and nothing really made any impact to speak
in the straight so she did a pretty reasonable job finish three lengths from Sweet Deal and 5. SO MAGIC (73), the latter one did make up ground but thanks in part to a rails hugging run. Back Mark Newnham’s mare though – he was quite bullish about her when we spoke to him on Wednesday, certainly
enough to suggest that he might back her up in the Belle of the Turf at Gosford if she runs to his expectations. One other things about Sweet Victory, she is 3s 0-1-0 first-up but 2s 1-1-0 with a run under the belt. She is also Warwick Farm winner from one visit. So Magic has been so well placed (as always) by Jason Coyle and is 6s 3-1-1 as a result. I said before she raced last start that she should maybe have won at least one more, maybe two, but whatever you’re view, she is a typically honest Coyle mare and like all the others, if gets it run to suit and gets a clear crack – well, she’ll be in the medals again. The stablemate 12. NO INTEREST (64) can never be left out. In fact, I reckon I have tipped her on top at every start for as long as can remember because I know that is she gets a tempo assist, she motor over the top at big odds. It will happen one day.
ALL eyes, well a lot anyway, will be on 4. INVINZABEEL (97) here by virtue of the fact that he is having his first run for Mark Newnham after having has his previous 44 with Chris Waller. I spoke to Mark Newnham during the week and reading between
lines, rightly or wrongly, it does seem that he has this horse ready and able to win. You don’t win two trials without blinkers then put them on a horse who races best in shades, not do you chose his pet trip at his home track and not expect him to live up to end of the bargain. As mentioned, first crop son of I Am Invincible has won a couple of trials going into the run and he’s looked really sharp especially for a horse of his age number of starts. I thought 3.
SPECTROPSCOPE (98) might have been in the Villiers last week and was all geared up to tip him on top given his excellent run in the Festival. Prior to that, one-time Doncaster hopeful has run two solid races over the 1400m of tomorrow’s distance – his record at which is 5s 1-0-2. Blinkers off again – he’ll be flying home as per usual. 7.
SIR BACCHUS (89) was in most people’s Black Book first-up over 1100m. He sprinted well fresh but was run off his legs next time at 1400m – I thought he may be looking for further but maybe it was just second-up off a big run took a toll. 1. PECANS
(104) $4.80 in the Festival and beaten two lengths into fifth. Back home, doesn’t rate 104 for nothing.
I HAVE never seen a better $126 (TAB Fixed Odds Wednesday night – $101 Thursday morning) shot than the local 13. EMSHALKY (58) whom I really liked first-up at $41 at Newcastle. The daughter of Al Maher ran 10th of 14 beaten five lengths but I strongly suggest you go back and look at the run in depth because she was about to make the run from back when she got tightened up quite badly and lost all momentum. Sure, was never going to win from where she was but she would definitely have finished a few places up and a couple of lengths closer at the end. Her only win was second-up and at 1400m and she goes around here with 50kg after the claim which is a featherweight for any horse but more so for one with her frame. Even if you think I am nuts for tipping her on top, you can’t go wrong with $5 the place at $20. That’s a $100 or collect for the place! Team Hawkes pulled off one of the training performances year with
5. KAPAJACK (72) winning on debut in a Saturday benchmark 78 race the other week. Only good horses can do that, so he has my utmost respect – was never, ever going to lose that day either, it was narrow but plenty comprehensive at the same time.
9. PEMBROKE CASTLE (69)
and 12. CHARRETERA (62) are in the mix.
LOOKING forward to seeing what the James Cummingstrained 9. INTUITION (80) can deliver first-up off two good trials, the last one was a ripper where he seemed to handle his stablemate and race rival 7.
TESSERA (81) with ease. This son of Street Cry handy mare Radar has won five of 13 overall and was a Warwick Farm winner at his only appearance here in the winter. He is a fully mature four-year-old now and we know that the Street Cry’s only get better as they get on so that is an obvious positive ahead of this new campaign. Clearly the toppie 1. BON AMIS (88) is
horse to beat given that his record currently stands at 13s 6-4-0. He won his first four runs before some luckless but highly creditable runs in the Provincial Championships series not least the Final where he ran two and a half-length fifth to Serene Miss co. Jason Deamer hastrained him to win both runs this time in – each of them were over 1100m at Rosehill bearing in mind that he ran 1.02.79s with a 33 and change last 600m. The times from the first win to the second say he is only getting better but doubters might question him at 1200m. I’m not necessarily one of them but it’s not like he’s won at the trip either. 11. BEL SONIC (79) and the roughie 10. VICEROY (80) are in contention.
Difficult To Get. Pic: Grant Guy