The Sportsman Weekend
Groundswell of support
Freedman’s sprinter to go one better
How the race will be run: Track should remain in the soft 5/6 range, with some showers hanging around. Think Tolemac, with no weight on his back, gets the front on his own here. South Pacific should box seat behind him and Dr Drill will look to work over get a possie just off speed.
My view: Can’t see this being anything but a moderately-run affair which will develop into a sprint home. For that reason, want to stick with South Pacific, who draws perfectly here to get the run of the race. That’s what happened two starts ago here when he had lovely trail in the race, got to the front at the top of the straight and then gave nothing else a chance in the sprint home. No doubt he was disappointing last start but he was up 4.5kg and made to do more work from an outside draw. He’s been kept a little fresh since then and drops 3kg this time. The one to beat. Schabau closed off nicely late when resuming, his last two sectional splits better than One More Try, who he faces here. He does like this track and looking for trip now. The Good Fight showed exactly that last start and he actually drops 1kg on that win. One More Try loomed up to win here last start and just ran out of puff. On trial this distance but shapes as though it will suit.
Suggested bet: South Pacific to win.
How the race will be run: Shadow Hawk and Strike Eagle look main pace in the race.
My view: Good value here with Stalking. She charged late when 2nd to Jagar here down the straight and then was without luck at Sandown behind Sharp Response. She about to work into the race but had her momentum halted at the top of the straight. When she got going again, she produced second fastest last 200m split of the race. That was pretty good because I also think she didn’t relish heavy track. Firmer conditions suit here, think 1400m also helps and she draws to get a gun run. Ready to win. Also meets Sharp Response 2.5kg better here. Sunfall won like a good horse at Geelong and circumstances were against him at Caulfield. Reckon he’ll relish this big track. Star Spirit had to make a long sustained run and just ran out of puff behind Sharp Response at Sandown. Looks talented and will go well here.
has the big weight but is very genuine.
Suggested bet: Stalking each way.
How the race will be run: Rolling Moss, Lombardo and High Risk like to be on speed.
My view: Abseiler is worth the gamble here. New season 3yo who hasn’t raced since failing in
Blue Diamond. He was a soft winner down the straight here on debut and then only 1.5lens off General Beau in a Blue Diamond Preview. Liked his recent jumpout at Caulfield when he wasn’t asked to do too much. Drawn to be coming down the grandstand side here, which may be advantageous. Looks talented and can test these. Modear likes the straight course here. She was very good late to win here two runs back, beating home Express Pass, who has since won, beating her home in June. She has been given a break here, goes well fresh. Hope inside draw is no disadvantage. Pioneer River runs his best races down the straight and the firmer the better with the track here. Drawn well. Zorro’s Dream is very honest and has been given a little freshen up.
Suggested bet: Abseiler each way.
How the race will be run: Faithful Diamond looks to cross and lead here, with Our Birdsong
My view: Lindhout was brilliant winning this track/trip two runs back and then just got too far before charging to just fail here behind Chassis. Given a little break since, looks to be solid tempo to suit and don’t think she will give away as big a start this time. The one to beat. Value runner is Island Joy. Thought she was good first-up in unsuitable straight race here and better suited up to the 1400m now. She was good in The Vanity this course and distance in the autumn. Drawn well. Aidensfield wasn’t far off Lindhout that Chassis race and has a weight advantage this time around. Don’ttelltheboss
the perfect draw and keeps racing well.
Suggested bet: Lindhout to anchor all exotics in the race.
How the race will be run: Deep Speed and Miss Albania will be in vanguard and Oxley Road, Second Slip, Kalkarni Royale and Milton Park will be handy.
My view: Deep Speed is slick and he showed that pace to outspeed his rivals at Caulfield, beating home subsequent winners Sacred Palace and Brazen Bully. Like the fact he’s drawn grandstand side here. Kept fresh since that first-up win and looks hard to run down. On hr other hand, Oxley Road has drawn the far side and just have to wait and see if that helps or hinders. All things being equal, he will be hard to toss. Lightly raced but smart and has jumped out very well for this. Miss Albania is also very fast drawn out. She did it tough into a headwind when resuming and all the better for the run. Need New Friends could be one steaming home here. Goes well fresh and there will be good speed on to help her sprint home hard.
Suggested bet: Deep Speed to win.
How the race will be run: Groundswell should lead comfortably. Red Can Man have to cross from wide draw and Mosh Music may not be far away.
My view: Think Groundswell will dictate the pace in front here, make it a sprint home and be way too hard to catch. Did exactly that to dominate in Listed grade at Morphettville three runs back. Has jumped out very well for his return here and the firmer track plays into his hands. Hard to run down. Viral looks to be getting back to best and normally races well this course and distance. He’ll be charging late. King Magnus beat home Viral last start and, with the claim, comes in very well at weights again. Wolfe is a stayer of class and can sprint fresh. His jumpouts have been good.
Suggested bet: Groundswell to win.
How the race will be run: Vegas Knight and Hosier may well lead but will have Tooradin, Irish Butterfly, Nerve Not Verve and Toff Choice not too far away.
My view: Hard to go past Hosier, who has blitzed his rivals in three Aussie runs. Gave nothing else a chance last start at Sandown. He drops 1kg here but is up in grade and, with Vegas Knight engaged, he may not get his own way front. May even take a sit if he challenged up front. The one to beat. Expecting improvement fro Zachaz. Had poor recovery last start and given a month off. Drawn well.Tooradin is very honest and will be on speed here.
Orleans Road is fast approaching his best form.
Suggested bet: Hosier to win.
How the race will be run: Sirius Suspect lead as he normally does. Aysar, The Astrologist and Great Again won’t be far away.
My view: The Astrologist is just so honest and he loves this straight course. Drawn to go outside or in depending on the pattern of the earlier races, rock hard fit and hard to hold out. Regardsmaree is very good and has jumped out strongly for his return. If the far side is not disadvantaged, he’ll be steaming home late. Banquo gets a weight advantage of The Astrologist on the last time they met and is now cherry ripe. Aysar is resuming but has also jumped out well and goes well fresh.
Suggested bet: The Astrologist to win.
How the race will be run: Not a lot of genuine pace here. Jittery Jack will led if he gets a start and Shot Or Irish and D’Aguilar won’t be far away.
My view: Grinzinger Allee did a good job when resuming at Caulfield and has been kept fresh since. Drawn perfectly to do little work in the run and be saved for a big sprint late. The value runner is Kinane. Ready to show his best now. Had plenty of excuses last start and don’t underestimate him. Coolth is resuming but normally races well fresh and he is talented. Think ‘N’ Fly is very fit and has a great draw.
Suggested bet: Grinzinger Allee to win.