The Sportsman Weekend
Moore’s Clever sprinter
Talented galloper to win again
How the race will be run: Release The Beans and Hamlet Von Snitzel are likely lead pair and should throttle down to the turn.
The favourites: Hamlet Von Snitzel got the job done here last week leading all the way to post a very easy win over 1350m. It looks as though he shares the lead with his main rival tomorrow in Release The Beans and I don’t see any reason why either would want to rev up until they reach the bend. I’m certainly leaning towards Hamlet but the price is rock bottom for me, he’s been backed into $1.75 and given the other one is out to $4 I’d almost be switching on the score of value. We might look to just quinella this pair and bank on them sprinting away on straightening.
The roughies: We nearly got a big payout with a 66/1 shot from the Les Ross team last weekend and Mishani clan can lift sharply on their day. Mishani Tulip was very competitive in good company as a juvenile and has had excuses at her first two back. Looking to work into our business through the multiples.
My view: The favourite is the one to beat but I’m going to lean on the exotics to offer us some protection early on.
The bet: Hamlet Von Snitzel ($1.75). Q 1/3, smaller box Q 1,3,6.
How the race will be run: Tavion Prince lead but the presence of Safin ensure at least a standard speed.
The favourites: They haven’t missed London Banker this week, chasing him into $1.95 after bolting in a Bm78 at Eagle Farm last weekend. It was a good win but this is tougher and now that he’s into odds-on there’s better value to be had.
The roughies: Top Order ($15) has been racing consistently, he may not quite be up to these but is in the mix for the minors.
My view: I’ll saving to cover on London Banker as he doesn’t need to make too much of a leap to win again, but with the track almost certain to dry up to good-4 by racetime I’m sticking with He Runs Away. He’s had 18 starts in the wet for zip and has done well to finish where he at his last couple. His form last prep was excellent and was placed Listed level in Sydney with just 1kg less than he has here. On a good-4 at $7.50 he’s a mile over the odds.
The bet: Good go win only on He Runs Away ($7.50), save to cover on London Banker ($1.95).
How the race will be run: Tremendous pressure up front here and the presence of runners like Family Star (10), Leadership Spill (8) Aviemore (5) I can’t really tell who’ll be in front on settling. Speed aplenty any event.
The favourites: Tramonto was stakes-placed twice over the winter carnival and there’s no doubting he has talent. He has a surprisingly poor record here but I wouldn’t read too much into it, from (3) he can settle behind the tempo and present late. Hard to beat fairly priced at $2.90.
The roughies: There isn’t a whole lot between them here, I can make a at least a place case for all of them but none of the roughies are jumping out at me
our main play.
My view: I’m quite keen on Contemptuous at the $4.20 resuming tomorrow. He had a great campaign over autumn, although he ran out of luck in March striking Amiche on a heavy track and bumping into Weona Smartone on a soft-6. On the dry tracks he was dominant and should be close to the favourite in running here with plenty up his sleeve when they straighten.
The bet: Solid go on Contemptuous (3x1) at $4.20.
How the race will be run: There’s every chance Larry Cassidy can control it again on Magic Conqueror and will be looking to turn it into a sprint home.
The favourites: Dzsenifer has been placed at all five runs since her last win on Boxing Day and they have all been in very strong company. Couldn’t get past them two weeks ago over this trip and it’s high time she converted. Right on the money at $2.70 I’ll back her in.
The roughies: I Am A Rocker isn’t the worst at $34, she wasn’t beaten all that far last time and is back out to the right trip.
My view: The $2.70 keeps me in Dzsenifer’s corner tomorrow but I have to say the patience is starting wear thin. If she doesn’t convert here she’ll be red-carded. I can’t tell you how much it stung watching Magic Conqueror win at $21 without me the other day, though in my defence it was a pretty wet track and I’d never have guessed he’d be leading all the way. He faces a small weight turnaround on the favourite but at $7 I have to have something on him back onto a good-4.
The bet: Solid bet on Dzsenifer at $2.70. Decent each way bet on Magic Conqueror at $7. Quinella 6/10/13.
How the race will be run: Plenty of go-forward types here with Adelase (11) looking to cross Deadly Sins (7) who in turn will try to lead Alderman (3) and the backmarkers will get their chance.
The favourites: Former Victorian Wham is enjoying his new surroundings up north, placing first-up for Lindsay Hatch before bolting in a Bm70 on his home track. He’ll let the speed go ahead of him here and go to sleep in behind, he’ll be very strong late and I’m not sure the $3.70 will last.
The roughies: Deadly Sins ($14) is another former Victorian who has tasted success in the Sunshine State, picking up a Bm65 at the Sunny Coast last month. Strips fitter and if they sort themselves out up front early on he will be strong to the finish.
My view: Wham’s southern form was a bit patchy but he’s doing very well in Queensland. He doesn’t have to beat much here and we’ll grab the $3.70 now.
The bet: Good go on Wham ($3.70).
How the race will be run: Front Money (10) and Daring Belle (11) drawn beside each will push forward from the jump with She Can Sing (12) slotting in behind and I’m banking on a genuine tempo.
The favourites: Dis Dah Wun ($4.00) was a beaten favourite at her last two in similar grade before the break but she did chalk up a hat-trick straight off the bat for her new stable in spring. I’m no real knock for her either on form or the score of value, though there is some chance she gets shuffled back with so much speed looking to cross early. She Can Sing looks a bit lean at $4.20 with two wins in easier grade and having to jump from (12). Some hope of finding the back of one of the leaders which puts her in the mix.
The roughies: Mary Valley ($10) isn’t far away from a win and went down by a lip last time in decent company. She goes into the quaddie at the good price.
My view: I’m on Power Boom here who does look value at $9.00. Looked a bit scrappy in the straight first-up when she finished off well with the winner and drops down to 54kg tomorrow. Drawn and get the speed on, we’ll have solid go at her. I didn’t think she’d be anything like $9.00.
The bet: Strong each way bet on Power Boom ($9.00). Quaddie 1,3,5,9,14 /7,8,11,12 /5,6,7 /4,5,12,13, and another standing out Shooting For Gold.
How the race will be run: Invicore (14) and Hidden Hail (15) have to work early from out wide, with So Clever (4) and Far Too Easy (1) holding their ground down low. Lots happening up front early on so everyone will get their chance.
The favourites: I risked So Clever last start and it helped that he was away at the jump. He did run a great race though and back onto dry track tomorrow from the good draw he is going to take a power of beating. I’m very wary of Far Too Easy who unbeaten in two runs including a 2yo event over the Grafton carnival from an outside draw. That
can often throw up a talented juvenile and this bloke fits the mould.
The roughies: Trengganu ($21) is up to an 0MW and has drawn well, Hidden Hail ($26) had a breather and brings strong formlines to the table.
My view: So Clever is the one to beat and after betting around him last time I’m jumping on. The Grafton flyer will test him but we’ll have cover in the quaddie.
The bet: Good bet on So Clever ($2.40).
How the race will be run: Ef Troop will lead again and might sneak in a soft sectional midrace.
The favourites: Shooting For Gold ($1.80) was extremely impressive first-up overcoming difficulties to win with a leg in the air, then backed it up another big after covering extra ground. Takes on open class for the first time here but he is very talented and should be able to reel them in.
The roughies: Just Orm ($14) is better suited back onto a dry track and with luck can sneak through along the fence to put himself into picture.
My view: Shooting For Gold has looked bombproof this prep and up to the 1110m can make it three in a row. This is a decent field but he looks to still have upside and is fair quote at $1.80.
The bet: Good go on Shooting For Gold ($1.80).
How the race will be run: Shijin will lead from Stuttering (12) and run it along.
The favourites: Really Discreet heads betting at $2.60 after winning by panels over this c/d two weeks ago. Drops 1.5kg into a slightly tougher race but has drawn perfectly and will take some beating.
The roughies: Snowzone ($16) beat Axe last start which isn’t a bad effort and gets a run in the quaddie. I’m also throwing Trevelyan at $81 who can a race fresh and is our smoky for the anchor leg.
My view: I was really impressed by the favourite last time and from good draw I’m jumping on.
The bet: Solid bet on Really Discreet at $2.60.