The Sportsman Weekend
Royal colt to win again
Smart threeyear-old is a class above
How the race will be run: Highway tempo. That is usually pretty constant and fair to all of them.
The Favourites: Danzadel has performed admirably on heavy tracks before and in this grade. Hurn Court has been flying this time in and done enough on soft/heavy tracks to get the tick. Middle barrier is ‘the winning draw’.
The Roughies: Kelvedon Road is lightly-raced and probably should have an even better C.V than he already does. Wide draw could be a bonus.
My View: Hard to go past Danzadel but she will need a good ride because anything goes with the track. When it’s wet at Kembla, they often come down the outside part of the track. It’s drying out a bit but it was a Heavy 10 so I am still working on wet and well off the inside fence is where they come. If I am wrong, I’ll be wrong 10 times because I have done every race with that in mind.
The Bet: Danzadel to win, box trifecta 4,5,9,12
How the race will be run: Good pace here if they all run. We might start to see if come off the rails or not. That is the key to whole day more so than tempos.
The Favourites: Royazel is a pretty promising sort of colt. He is by Snitzel out of a Show A Heart mare which wholly accounts for why he is unbeaten in those two heavy track runs. Stablemate Exceltic has the pattern to win this. Stars in perfect alignment here for the muddie, Bowery Breeze.
The Roughies: Miss Redouble was my pick in the Midway two weeks back and while she was pretty stock standard on the day, she has won at this track and excels on heavy ground. Fitter too.
My View: Little concerned about barrier 3 for Royalzel but then again, he is such a great wet tracker that it might not matter as much to him. Does looks good for Bowery Breeze on all fronts.
The Bet: Royalzel to win, exacta 6 to beat 5
How the race will be run: Maybe Helga makes use of the rails draw, Centimental surely will be right up there if not in fact leading. Majella needs to get over somehow.
The Favourites: Two good mares who like the wet share top billing here namely Steel Damond and also Rock My Wand who is likewise very fit, very consistent quite well weighted on the limit for a Group 3 placegetter.
The Roughies: Foxborough is on the seven-day back-up after a ripper run at the mile at home at Randwick second-up. Pensato is shorter than I thought it would be but she is a Pierro on the up and goes to suitable trip.
My View: I like a 100/1 shot in the race namely Layla Of Monaco. This Jason Coyle-trained mare loves Kembla and I can report that she was trialling well before resumed here on the rock-hard deck that suited onpacers; hence why she ran last – at $101 that day too.
The Bet: Layla of Monaco each-way
How the race will be run: Cognac, Gemmahra, Sepulchre and Austrata all there to make it honest enough.
The Favourites: Maher/Eustace import Mankayan has raced 10 times for two wins and six placings. The Irish-bred gelding left a huge impression when he came from a wide gate and a long way back to post his fourth consecutive second at Australian debut at Flemington on Aug 7. Good on soft, unplaced once heavy. Great House is liable to bounce back to his best given that he gets out 2000m again. Galileo son so gets the big tick on the slop.
The Roughies: Onemoresapphire has never raced better and is getting close to a win. The Tracey Bartley-trained gelding was fantastic here behind Crystal Pegasus two weeks ago and has placed at all three on heavy.
My View: French stayer Montabot won of four soft, placed two of four on heavy – it’s all he has ever raced in his eight starts. If this is a slog, he’s the one.
The Bet: Montabot each-way
How the race will be run: Head Of State a potential leader, Chill could easily take it up if he wanted to. Can’t say looks high pressure on paper.
The Favourites: Coastwatch went so close to winning the Up And Coming here 14-days ago. His only win was on a soft 7 but that was a close call and it was on the Kensington track. Heavy 10 at Kembla is a different kettle of fish but can’t knock him until he’s tried it. Military Expert was $4.60 second pick on Wednesday which surprised me only because I think Subterranean has done more than him, that said he has been around longer.
The Roughies: Three very good double figure horses here in Chill (underrated), Dark Rebel (heavy track winner) and Yulong Turbo (going places for Waller this spring)
My View: Subterranean raced in restricted room late in the Up And Coming. He has come back well and can only be better again tomorrow with the extra 100m.
The Bet: Subterranean to win
How the race will be run: In The Congo and Maotai are key to pace of the race. They both likely to be one/two – pressure after that is up to their respective riders.
The Favourites: Stay Inside is the horse to beat given his standing as one of the more dominant Golden Slipper winners in recent times. Trials have been good; one was great in fact. Won two from two on Soft 7’s. I loved Paulele’s trial but I truly expected his big weight would beat him in the Rosebud. If he comes out and wins like that again, he’s favourite for everything for the rest of the spring.
The Roughies: There can only be one winner but how crazy are the two Snowden horse’s prized, namely Mazu and Captivant?
My View: Captivant is either ready or he is not. The market says isn’t ready to win and fair enough, but he is a seriously underrated colt who could be winning some of the biggest 3YO races this spring and into the autumn.
The Bet: Captivant each-way
How the race will be run: Inverloch favoured to lead. By now we will know the best ground and if you can make too.
The Favourites: All eyes on Heart Of Puissance here to see how he measures up in this grade because if wins, or runs really well, will be one of the many Maher/Eustace big spring staying hopefuls. He has his chance at the weights and with probably
best ‘staying’ rider in the business on his back – K. McEvoy. Huge watch Waller recruit Dashing Willoughby who has been trialling up a storm.
The Roughies: I still say Luncies is a Newcastle Cup, Metrop, Caulfield Cup, Lexus sort of horse in 2021 even on his failure in the Coffs Harbour Cup which really wasn’t run to suit him I feel.
My View: Have been waiting impatiently for Spirit Ridge. We can see in his form he is way good enough to win but the he has been trialling, ready to rip and tear.
The Bet: Spirit Ridge win, Luncies each-way, box First 4: No. 1,2,8,13
How the race will be run: Peyton Place is a known leader, Tycoonist may tag. Should a good pace.
The Favourites: This is decent enough test for King Of Sparta – the $2.60 favourite. That said, he has come back really well as a gelding and that win here the other day was far more impressive than it looks on paper because he was in a spot of bother in the early part of the straight. Not talent, just price. Tycoonist is a better horse than one who is three from 16. You need an abacus to count how many times he was unlucky. The track won’t worry him.
The Roughies: Fastconi is still trying to get out from last Saturday. Barrier 1 can be a nightmare for some horses and he is prime example. 11 tomorrow is the best place for him.
My View: A very good judge once told me to always have something on horses first-up out of a Derby/Oaks or 3200m Cup. Prompt Prodigy is a vastly underrated horse who debuted on a Heavy track at Warwick Farm and ran a huge race. Down the outside and over the top on Saturday – fingers crossed.
The Bet: Prompt Prodigy each-way
How the race will be run:
The Favourites: Andermatt’s record on wet tracks is compelling to say the least. The son of Snitzel is two from two when first-up or on debut and the trial at Hawkesbury was a beauty. Majestic Shot just keeps clearing bar whenever it is raised so you can never say ‘no’ to a horse like that.
The Roughies: Perigord has won three of four on heavy tracks and has placed twice in three starts at Kembla. If they are coming down the outside rail, then he could be one in that spot.
My View: What I didn’t mention earlier about Andermatt before is that he has been gelded since we last saw him race; not an easy decision for Godolphin but it is a ‘gear change’ that invariably works.
The Bet: Andermatt to win
How the race will be run: Big field, pace should good.
The Favourites: Kingsheir was probably never going to get beat first-up on his trials but certainly was
when he got the fence, blew the whistle, and exploded away. Could be wrong but when it’s heavy at Kembla that is exactly the opposite to how they win especially late in the day. Yiyi loves it wet.
The Roughies: I know Hot Spring Gold is a bit of a teasing type but I can just see him ambushing them late down the outside.
My View: Given what I said about traditional patterns on the Heavy 9’s and 10 at Kembla, Jay Ford has decisions to make on where Kingsheir is in the run and especially where he on corner. At the end of day, it’s hard enough to find winners let along predict weather and the pattern but I based this preview on an improving Soft/Heavy track with a ‘middle/wide in the straight’ preferred place to be. If that changes on the day, then so be it.
The Bet: Kingsheir to win