The Sportsman Weekend
Weona looks too Smart
Vandyke’s sprinter to win first-up
How the race will be run: Lyrical Girl will fly early looking for fence and with Mort Doyle et al rolling along her it will be a fast run 1050m.
The favourites: Lyrical Girl has been a big drifter out from $2.40 to $2.90 and I still think she’s too short. She moved through the weaker grade very comfortably last spring but only had one run campaign going under at a prohibitive quote. Recent trial winner but from (13) she is going to burn half the tank to get across. Against weaker opposition that might be okay, but this is no ordinary Bm75.
The roughies: Mort Doyle ($23) honest and puts himself in the right spot here early on. Nice lines though last prep and while not as classy as some of these, he can run a drum at odds. One Stryke ($26) beat Ditmas last time and also has nice lines in better grade last season. Noel Callow kicks up to track the leaders and both of these roughies are worth playing around with.
My view: This Bm75 is on a different level to most and the favourite is going have her work cut out for her. At the $7.00 I’m on Ruuca who a real talent resuming off a couple of trials. Placed behind Yao Dash and Garibaldi at his last two in far superior grade and gets half a kilo off the favourite here after the claim. He’ll sit back off the hot speed and be strong late. The Move ($3.60) is going for his hat-trick tomorrow after finally realising some of his potential. It’s a super contest but we’ll back Rucca each way and hope an exotic play can capture some value.
The bet: Cautious opener each way Ruuca ($7.00). Box tri 2,3,4,7,9.
How the race will be run: Next Dimension might get a cheap lead here with Keefy and turn it into a dash home.
The favourites: Next Dimension heads the market at $4.20 lining up for a treble. He won two over this trip and by big margins, but he does creep up to 59kg tomorrow these have more talent than recent opposition. I think there are better options.
The roughies: The market probably has it sewn up with their top six, all under $10.
My view: Keefy is a couple of points over the mark here at $7.00 so he’s bet. A winner over two rivals on debut before being outclassed by Profiteer in Sydney, his first-up run was good behind Startantes. Only a youngster but the latest reads well and down on 53.5kg gets weight pull off whole field.
The bet: Modest each way Keefy at $7.00.
How the race will be run: Loads of pressure with Miami Fleiss (7) wanting to lead but will be under attack from Dusty Tycoon (14), Chivargo (12) and She Can Sing (9) and there won’t be much peace up front.
The favourites: Miami Fleiss dominates the market at $1.95, I’m a big fan of this girl but that price is awfully skinny. She wasn’t given much hope last time going crazy up front though she did stick on to only let one talented one past her. Created a big impression at her first campaign and if she can get an easier run in transit will go close.
The roughies: Soubrette is still showing up on my radar here out in the market. She was a model of consistency last prep and from good draw can track this hectic tempo and give a sight late at $31.
My view: Miami Fleiss is down on 51kg here and surely she won’t get into another crazy speed battle up front tomorrow. The firmer track definitely suits her and I have to be on, but at $1.95 we won’t go overboard with her, there are some nice types engaged and the pressure up front can potentially bring her undone.
The bet: Cautious win only Miami Fleiss ($1.95). Small place bet on Soubrette at $6.00.
How the race will be run: Dissolution and Zigallene will pair off up front there looks to be enough pressure in behind
ensure at least a standard speed, rather than dawdle.
The favourites: London Banker has looked pretty good winning his last two over a trip in fine style and he’s big chance of notching up the hat-trick. This is a distinct leap from the Bm90 he won three weeks ago, but at $3.30 he’s not hopeless on the score of value, and we might least save on him at that quote.
The roughies: I don’t want to abandon He Runs Away ($17) just yet, he meets the favourite much better at weights and is capable of sharp improvement. Plitvice can also lift his rating in a short space and with three under his belt might show something this time behind a better tempo.
My view: Purrfect Deal has won three of four this campaign including the Grafton Cup as favourite and she is a stayer with great promise. She’s won seven of 11 because of her ability to win fresh and that’s where she finds herself tomorrow. I have her closer to the favourite than $4.80 so we’ll be on, and we’ll incorporate the roughies into some exotics.
The bet: Good go each way Purrfect Deal ($4.80). Save to cover on London Banker ($3.30). Box Q/T 2,4,5,9.
How the race will be run: There’s no speed here at all and Ulysses might find himself in front at a very casual tempo.
The favourites: Roman Aureus is the top here at $4.00 and he really does have to win one or punters will soon drop off, I know I have. He has run four great races this prep in strong company, placing on every occasion but he has also cost punters a bundle because he’s just not winning. Drawn better tomorrow but untested at this trip, the price is okay but I was looking to bet around him.
The roughies: Milk Man’s ($14) form is patchy, but his last run behind Dzsenifer was good and he drops 5kg tomorrow against a comparable line-up. He can sit closer, which he probably needs to and can give us a sight at big odds. Prospectus ($12) has the same formline and while not suited behind a slow speed is racing well.
My view: I’m happy with the $14 each way Milk Man, and Roman Aureus has sucked me back in for a saver one more time, only because of the price. This is his last chance, but he does have a few things going for him and aside from his consistent losing streak form does read well.
The bet: Each way Milk Man ($14). Saver-plus on Roman Aureus at $4.00.
How the race will be run: Weona Smartone lead here from (12), he will have to work to dominate some other speedster but should be able settle in front and sneak a breather somewhere midrace.
The favourites: Weona Smartone is probably about right at even money, he is an exceptional talent. He’s treated his rivals with contempt at his last five winning by more than two lengths every time and while this is a handy field his draw is awful, I think he has them covered.
The roughies: Let’s Party Marty ($21) is very competitive on his day and wasn’t beaten far first-up so he goes into the quaddie. Good Chat ($19) needs this firmer track and a slightly more patient ride he can show up. His form last prep on good tracks was very good and be strong late.
My view: I can’t go past Weona Smartone at $2.00 so I’m on. We’ll have two quaddies standing him out in one and getting some coverage the other.
The bet: Good go on Weona Smartone at $2.00. Quaddie 4,5,6,7,12 /1,2,3,9,12 /3,4,11,12 /2,6,10,17.
How the race will be run: Sacca will kick up from the inside gate and may hold front on settling, looking at a genuine tempo where everything gets its chance.
The favourites: Prince of Boom has been heavily supported into $2.80 but I thought he was closer to the right price at $4.00. Didn’t beat a great deal on wet tracks at his first two starts but did do it very easily, then disappointed in the Sires with excuses. Looked pretty good in his trial win but he goes straight to 1200m here off the break and with 59kg will earn win.
The roughies: I’ll be throwing Gemelon Bolt into the quaddie at $41, he wasn’t beaten all that far fresh and did show up in his first prep. Glorious Ruby ($13) is also capable of improvement after going under as favourite first-up.
My view: I have Alpine Edge a pronounced here and the $3.70 is tremendous value. He was one of the best going round in his first campaign, placing the Magic Millions after consecutive stakes victories, and sailed home first-up to bolt in at Eagle Farm. Down 2kg, gets a strong enough tempo and with that run under his belt he should be at the top of the market by at least a point.
The bet: Good crack Alpine Edge (2x1) $3.70.
How the race will be run: Phantom Falcon looks the leader and with Cruze and At Witz End in close attendance should carve out a decent time.
The favourites: Desert Lord is favourite again at $2.80 and he does look very hard to beat. Bolted in beating Roman Aureus first-up before an honest effort in Listed grade as favourite. He’ll get back from (2) and needs to find clear air but with a good ride is likely to be thereabouts at the finish. He can tend to race a bit flat and I usually like take him on, but he goes into the quaddie for sure.
The roughies: Ballistic Boy is a very smart galloper resuming with trial win under his belt and at $10 is worth a crack. Winner of the Rough Habit at three, he scored consecutive mile victories last prep before a couple of average results stepping up in class. This is short of his best, but he’s an exciting type who can run a race and at $10 won’t require too much exposure.
My view: Not a race I’m keen to invest much in, but at the double figures I’m happy to have something on Ballistic Boy.
The bet: Modest each way Ballistic Boy at $10.
How the race will be run: Shijin will lead from (3) but with good pressure out wide will have to run it along to hold the top spot.
The favourites: Acrobatic has won two of his last three in weaker company but at least he’s back on track. At best he beats these comfortably and the right price.
The roughies: Jinx ‘n’ Drinx caught the eye second-up running on behind She Can Sing in a strong 0MW. Gets a solid speed here and at $14 top of the ground will be hitting the line hard.
My view: Jinx ‘n’ Drinx went straight into the black book last time and this is winnable. At $14 each way she looks a great bet.
The bet: Each way Jinx ‘n’ Drinx at $14.